hawkstwelve

Good grief. He's effectively running as an incumbent and yet is still only getting 60-65% in some states (VA, MA, CO, MN) and outright losing one (VT). If Biden was only getting 65% of the vote in 30% of the states who were voting, would you claim that he is dominating?

I'm confused... where is the nonsense?

A quick sum up of this interview... "Mr. President, what will do to fix the economy?" "Well those people in the diner were great. They were 100% for Trump. I love them. I love them so much. Did you see that? Not a single person for Nikki. Tell them I love them." "Mr. President, what will you do about Israel and the pushback on the death in Gaza?" "Well that would have never happened under my watch. It never would have happened. You know that, I know that, people know that. It's a disgrace." "Mr. President, what will you do to unite the Republican Party?" "Well Nikki is a liar, she misrepresents facts. It's important to be honest and truthful and she isn't. She's losing horribly and will continue to lose. She's a loser." Just a complete moron...

Just some slight differences for Nebraska between the 00z GEM and GFS just 90 hours out.

Supreme Court reinstated Trump to Colorado's ballot, effectively ending the ability for Democrats to subvert democracy and remove him from various state's ballots. The right decision.

Trump's Congressional endorsements: 193 Haley's Congressional endorsements: 3 But yes, please continue to try and gaslight us into believing Trump is still an outsider like he was in 2016. Let me guess - next you're going to try and tell us that Trump actually did drain the swamp like he said he would. The swamp that is now almost 100% behind him. I expect that will also include some mental gymnastics to understand, like most of your posts.

Brutal poll for Biden and the Democrats. - Trump beats Biden nationally by 5 points (Haley beats him by 10 points) - Only 24% believe the country is on the right track - Only 23% of Democrat primary voters said they would be "enthusiastic" if Biden was the nominee, compared to 48% for Trump among Republican primary voters - 47% "strongly disapprove" of Biden's job performance, including 44% for Independents - More than twice as many voters believe Biden's policies have personally hurt them (43%) than helped them (18%); 40% believe Trump's policies personally helped them - Almost 75% believe the economy is either "only fair" or "poor" - Trump retains 97% of support from voters who supported him in 2020, compared to Biden who retains only 83% with 10% saying they are switching to Trump this cycle - Biden won 72% of the nonwhite working class in 2020. His support with this group now stands at 47% with 41% now going for Trump - 32% of Democrats said they were either angry or dissatisfied with Biden being the leader of the party compared to 18% for Trump among Republicans https://dnyuz.com/2024/03/02/voters-doubt-bidens-leadership-and-favor-trump-times-siena-poll-finds/ https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/03/02/us/elections/times-siena-poll-registered-voter-crosstabs.html

McConnell is stepping down as leader in November. He plans to continue serving out his term until 2027.

Sure, but "uncommitted" means two different things in this primary. For the Republican side, along with the portion of Haley's vote, it's a direct rebuke of Donald Trump. For the Democrat side, it's a direct rebuke of Biden's handling in Gaza and the Israel/Hamas war. Biden might have a chance at courting those voters if he calls for a cease-fire (already starting to happen) or changes his position with Israel. On the flip side, Trump has shown no signs of wanting to court the voters disillusioned with him. He's made it plainly clear that if you don't identify as MAGA and worship him, you aren't welcome. Both are warning signs for the presumptive nominees but not to the same degree.

Trump is running under 70% in Michigan primary results, as an incumbent. Over 300,000 Republican primary voters chose someone else or 'uncommitted' over Trump. He lost Michigan in 2020 by 150,000 votes and won in 2016 by just 11,000. No matter how much Trump wants to try and claim the party is united, it's anything but that.

Cold front made it's way through earlier this morning, quickly dropping the temperature almost 10 degrees in an hour. Currently sitting at 13 with a strong north wind making it feel pretty dang cold, especially after the 70 reading yesterday. Moderate to occasionally heavy snowfall for the past hour and a half with visibility quickly dropping due to the blowing snow. What a difference one day makes!

Record-breaking heat for four local area sites.

Officially hit the 70 degree mark. We will have a midnight high tomorrow before we drop into the single digits tomorrow night with wind chill values in the negative teens. Highs on Wednesday are only expected to top out in the low 30s. Most models then show us quickly warming back up with another shot at 70 over the weekend. Temperature whiplash to the extreme.

The guy has a personality of a door knob. He didn't even know how to properly smile like a human being. It's never a good sign that as people meet your candidate more, the less they like him. He needs to stick to Florida for a while and try and regain the ground/confidence he has lost there within his legislature. National elections don't suit him well.

The Tuesday front been incredibly neutered on almost all of tonight's model runs. Now looking like less than an inch, if anything at all. Lame. Maybe around the 4th/5th?

Trump is pretty much running as an incumbent and yet 40% of his party is voting for someone other than him. Think of it this way: If 40% of Democrats were voting for Dean Phillips in the Democrat primary, MAGA would point to that and yell about how even a large portion of Democrats hate Biden (which would arguably be true) and that he doesn't have a shot in November. And yet because it's Haley who is pulling 40% consistently, we are getting gaslit into believing the Republican Party is unified and she's just a looney Democrat in disguise. What a bunch of BS. Ultimately, this primary cycle has shown deep divisions within the Republican Party but Trump has shown no signs at trying to unite the party. In fact, he has said multiple times that Republicans who support Haley are not welcome in MAGA. If he keeps up with that type of rhetoric he can kiss the general election goodbye.

That number is consistent with the same percentages in Iowa and New Hampshire that said they will not vote for him. See my post above to roadtonowhere. He claimed last night "the Republican Party has never been more united" but that could not be further from the truth. The problem for Trump is both his support and his detractors are all but baked in at this point. It's going to be an incredibly long, tough road ahead to try and convince Republicans like me (and the other 20-40% of the Party who thinks like me) to vote for him come November. If he's not successful, hell maybe even if he is, Joe Biden wins.

Many times those disillusioned voters will "come home" by the time the general rolls around and vote for whoever the party nominee is at that point. Normally it wittles down to about 10% of the party being holdouts, so I wouldn't expect that full 60% to hold. That being said, I don't see a large "come home" movement this cycle because we already know who Donald Trump is and what he will bring. You either love him or hate him, and it's become apparent during this primary cycle that 20-40% of the Republican Party hates him. Trump lost in 2020 with about 90% of Republicans supporting him and a minority of Independents. If he really can't convince that 20-40% of the party to vote for him, I don't see how it's possible that he will win.

60% of Haley voters in SC said they would not support Trump in November. That's going to be a problem.

"As President Joe Biden prepares to deliver his State of the Union address to Congress, Americans are feeling less content with numerous aspects of the country than they were when he took office three years ago. Of 29 aspects of the country Gallup has tracked during Biden's presidency, public satisfaction has declined in 12, while it has been steady in 12 and improved in five. As a result, in a reversal of the pattern seen before 2021, anemic (sub-33%) public satisfaction ratings of national conditions now outnumber strong (50%+) ones, and by a substantial margin." https://news.gallup.com/poll/610916/americans-offer-anemic-state-nation-report.aspx

ECMWF and CMC show no real low pressure developing in the lee of the Rockies but instead develops it over the Great Lakes, which leads to much lower snow totals in the central CONUS. GFS shows the opposite. Any bets on which model camp is right? I know where I am placing my bets. Given the atrocious handling of recent systems by the GFS and it's continued wild flailing with next week's system(s), I'd place decent money on the Euro/CMC solution.

Trump supporters have donated $954k on a GoFundMe setup to help Trump cover his legal fees. This amounts to 0.003% of the total $355 million goal. @Stormy - Instead of going back and weenie-ing my posts, perhaps that time would be better spent helping your God Emperor reach his goal. Just 99.997% to go! You can do it!! https://www.gofundme.com/f/stand-with-trump-raise-the-settlement

A majority of voters believe that both Biden (64%) and Trump (51%) are mentally unfit for another term. Yet we are going to pass on Haley who is beyond mentally fit for the position. All because America loves chaos and self-flagellation apparently. https://news.yahoo.com/most-voters-biden-trump-both-225000542.html

18z GFS going crazy with snow totals in relation to the low pressure complex next week. Almost two feet of snow for Sioux Falls. Our good ol Drunk Uncle coming through again.

You didn't address the point but that's not surprising.