hawkstwelve

Officially hit the 70 degree mark. We will have a midnight high tomorrow before we drop into the single digits tomorrow night with wind chill values in the negative teens. Highs on Wednesday are only expected to top out in the low 30s. Most models then show us quickly warming back up with another shot at 70 over the weekend. Temperature whiplash to the extreme.

The guy has a personality of a door knob. He didn't even know how to properly smile like a human being. It's never a good sign that as people meet your candidate more, the less they like him. He needs to stick to Florida for a while and try and regain the ground/confidence he has lost there within his legislature. National elections don't suit him well.

The Tuesday front been incredibly neutered on almost all of tonight's model runs. Now looking like less than an inch, if anything at all. Lame. Maybe around the 4th/5th?

Trump is pretty much running as an incumbent and yet 40% of his party is voting for someone other than him. Think of it this way: If 40% of Democrats were voting for Dean Phillips in the Democrat primary, MAGA would point to that and yell about how even a large portion of Democrats hate Biden (which would arguably be true) and that he doesn't have a shot in November. And yet because it's Haley who is pulling 40% consistently, we are getting gaslit into believing the Republican Party is unified and she's just a looney Democrat in disguise. What a bunch of BS. Ultimately, this primary cycle has shown deep divisions within the Republican Party but Trump has shown no signs at trying to unite the party. In fact, he has said multiple times that Republicans who support Haley are not welcome in MAGA. If he keeps up with that type of rhetoric he can kiss the general election goodbye.

That number is consistent with the same percentages in Iowa and New Hampshire that said they will not vote for him. See my post above to roadtonowhere. He claimed last night "the Republican Party has never been more united" but that could not be further from the truth. The problem for Trump is both his support and his detractors are all but baked in at this point. It's going to be an incredibly long, tough road ahead to try and convince Republicans like me (and the other 20-40% of the Party who thinks like me) to vote for him come November. If he's not successful, hell maybe even if he is, Joe Biden wins.

Many times those disillusioned voters will "come home" by the time the general rolls around and vote for whoever the party nominee is at that point. Normally it wittles down to about 10% of the party being holdouts, so I wouldn't expect that full 60% to hold. That being said, I don't see a large "come home" movement this cycle because we already know who Donald Trump is and what he will bring. You either love him or hate him, and it's become apparent during this primary cycle that 20-40% of the Republican Party hates him. Trump lost in 2020 with about 90% of Republicans supporting him and a minority of Independents. If he really can't convince that 20-40% of the party to vote for him, I don't see how it's possible that he will win.

60% of Haley voters in SC said they would not support Trump in November. That's going to be a problem.

"As President Joe Biden prepares to deliver his State of the Union address to Congress, Americans are feeling less content with numerous aspects of the country than they were when he took office three years ago. Of 29 aspects of the country Gallup has tracked during Biden's presidency, public satisfaction has declined in 12, while it has been steady in 12 and improved in five. As a result, in a reversal of the pattern seen before 2021, anemic (sub-33%) public satisfaction ratings of national conditions now outnumber strong (50%+) ones, and by a substantial margin." https://news.gallup.com/poll/610916/americans-offer-anemic-state-nation-report.aspx

ECMWF and CMC show no real low pressure developing in the lee of the Rockies but instead develops it over the Great Lakes, which leads to much lower snow totals in the central CONUS. GFS shows the opposite. Any bets on which model camp is right? I know where I am placing my bets. Given the atrocious handling of recent systems by the GFS and it's continued wild flailing with next week's system(s), I'd place decent money on the Euro/CMC solution.

Trump supporters have donated $954k on a GoFundMe setup to help Trump cover his legal fees. This amounts to 0.003% of the total $355 million goal. @Stormy - Instead of going back and weenie-ing my posts, perhaps that time would be better spent helping your God Emperor reach his goal. Just 99.997% to go! You can do it!! https://www.gofundme.com/f/stand-with-trump-raise-the-settlement

A majority of voters believe that both Biden (64%) and Trump (51%) are mentally unfit for another term. Yet we are going to pass on Haley who is beyond mentally fit for the position. All because America loves chaos and self-flagellation apparently. https://news.yahoo.com/most-voters-biden-trump-both-225000542.html

18z GFS going crazy with snow totals in relation to the low pressure complex next week. Almost two feet of snow for Sioux Falls. Our good ol Drunk Uncle coming through again.

You didn't address the point but that's not surprising.

I honestly don't understand how anyone, regardless of party affiliation, could watch this and not come to the conclusion that she is easily the best candidate from either party of this cycle. Sane, competent, compassionate, doesn't belong in a nursing home, won't possibly be a felon by next year... The list goes on. You may not agree with her on everything but good God Almighty she is so much better than both Biden and Trump. It's not even close. If nothing else, watch the last few minutes of the video, starting around 47 mins in. #MakeAmericaNormalAgain

Emerson poll was conducted at the beginning of January for the SC primary that showed Trump at 54 and Haley at 25. A new Emerson poll just released shows Trump gained +7 while Haley gained +14 since that time. Haley has set a benchmark for herself to do better than NH so she would have to get more than 43% to consider it a positive and continue to push on to Super Tuesday. Obviously, Trump will still most likely win SC and ultimately the nomination but I have to try and find a glimmer of hope here people. https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/republican-primary/2024/south-carolina

This article was written prior to the verdict but is still an important note. Democrats will say, 'oh but we are just enforcing the law' while in the same breath stretching the law beyond precedent just to harm Trump in any way they can. I dislike the guy as much as the next person but, again, it's shit like this that makes his martyr act all the more effective. Democrats have turned a billionaire into a victim. Insane. "An Associated Press analysis of nearly 70 years of civil cases under the law showed that such a penalty has only been imposed a dozen previous times, and Trump’s case stands apart in a significant way: It’s the only big business found that was threatened with a shutdown without a showing of obvious victims and major losses." https://apnews.com/article/trump-fraud-business-law-courts-banks-lending-punishment-2ee9e509a28c24d0cda92da2f9a9b689

Yes. We will either be writing in Haley, voting independent, or just ignoring the top of the ticket all together.

He'll win South Dakota regardless but I will not be voting for Trump in the general, and neither will my wife. First time we won't be supporting the Republican nominee in our lifetimes.

Skip to 2:00 to get a first hand look at today's Republican party.

Pretty widespread cold and wet signal for mid/late March on the latest Euro weeklies and GEFS extended. The groundhog may have seen an early spring but I don't think that's going to be the case.

Trump has been ordered to pay $350 million in his NY civil fraud trial. Combined with the damages won by E. Jean Carroll, Trump has already racked up $450 million in legal dues and fees. He's barely even started the majority of his cases. The guy will be bankrupt in no time.

We've had some unexpected light snow falling most of the morning. Not adding up to much after the little over half inch that fell last night but nice to see it falling during the day after a couple rounds of night snowfall. Won't feel like winter for long so guess we need to soak it up while we can!

Yesterday the Winter Weather Advisory started one county to my north, today it starts one county to my south. As it stands, we received about an inch last night and are progged to receive the same tonight. Guess it was nice we got anything at all but pretty dang frustrating being so close to the higher totals on both sides of me. At least we already beat the GFS's half inch forecast. That model needs to be put out to pasture.

GFS went from showing me getting a foot just five runs ago to now trolling me by showing under a half inch total between both systems. What a complete and utter mess of a model. Hope it continues to be wrong.

We've gone from a 3-5 inch snowfall tonight and again tomorrow night to only 1-2 inches both nights. As expected, higher totals up near Brookings where there is a WSW in effect for 4-8 inches. WWA in effect just one county to my north for 2-5 inches. So close yet so far. I guess I'll take whatever I can get, especially considering it looks to turn quite boring again for the foreseeable future.