IbrChris

Forgot to add that I prefer to look at mean temperature personally, in which case Aug 2013 was beaten by Aug 1915.

Ya, Kalispell is really nice. Missoula isn't bad either, more urban feeling than the others. Hamilton also nice. Bozeman of course, also Red Lodge. Livingston isn't bad either.

It is what it is.

Also, there's been some similar months to Aug 2013 in the older records: 82.3/59.9 in Aug 1897. 82.7/59.8 in Aug 1915. 81.5/59.6 in Aug 1923. 80.7/59.0 in Aug 1930 etc. Compare to 81.5/60.9 in Aug 2013 UHI is a factor but not nearly to the degree it is in warmer/drier areas like Phoenix.

What is your methodology to do so? Sure, I am aware there's UHI influence in the more recent decades.

I completely agree...but as a kid I hated it here. I hope my kids grow up enjoying it. If we could keep these summers with the winters we had during the latter 19th century, that would be optimal. Bozeman area is really cool, I'd love to live there. My folks live near Rexburg, Idaho a similar distance from Yellowstone Park and roughly the same climate as Bozeman. Arctic air tends to stick around awhile longer in eastern Idaho with no Chinooks to mix it out. Bozeman gets reprieves but also gets the truly arctic stuff a bit more often than Idaho. Great area.

August 2013 had a mean low temp of 60.9 at PDX. Not only is this the warmest Aug mean low ever, with records back to 1874, but it even managed to push the monthly mean temp to the 5th warmest on record in the 1849-2013 period of record: 71.2 (all-time record 72.3 in 1986). Only one other month has seen a higher mean low temp, 61.2 in July 1998.

Ya DP was well above normal. Too bad our boundary layer moisture never translates to the mid levels due to the marine inversion. Central and eastern US can get the same problem when there's strong ridging during the summer and a lack of deeper moisture advection off the Gulf. The boundary layer can have ridiculous amounts of moisture yet the mid levels are bone dry.

It is just a tad warmer and drier down here...almost mediterranean from about early July through mid September most years. We average about 80-82 for a high in July and August.

Summers here, at least in western Oregon, seem close to perfect. Almost straight out of a depiction of the Elysian Fields "to the Elysian plain…where life is easiest for men. No snow is there, nor heavy storm, nor ever rain, but ever does Ocean send up blasts of the shrill-blowing West Wind that they may give cooling to men." — Homer, Odyssey (4.560–565) Honestly no better description of our summers.

The warning seems reasonable, 3-7" across western Whatcom.

12z ECMWF ensembles were interesting. This is the chart for PDX but it illustrates the similarly decent spread in ensemble solutions for the rest of the I-5 corridor.

Summers are pretty good...but not overly thundery. CDA still sees around 12-15 tstorm days a year, perhaps 1-2 more than Spokane. July highs are in the mid 80s with lows dropping into the lower 50s. It's not much different than the rest of the inland NW. Afternoon RH values do fall below 20% often in summer. Winters in CDA are a bit colder than the bulk of eastern WA, a couple degrees colder than Spokane but not as cold as Colville.

I am partial to Idaho myself. If I worked in Spokane I would live in either CDA or Rathdrum Prairie area. As far as snow I would think they would be similar, although I'm not too familiar with Lake Chelan's climate. CDA area probably gets a bit colder on average.

1300 line based on RAP analysis seems to have shifted N a bit...some areas across Snohomish County may see more of a mix. -2c line @ 925 over Whatcom County. Pretty marginal out there tonight but there doesn't appear to be any 850-925 mb warm layer to screw things up, so areas that are snow now will probably stay that way.

Compared to much of the 1990s and early 2000s the last 8-10 winters have been relatively decent. Not as good as the 1980s, but heading in the right direction. Before anyone gets down into the nitty gritty I am speaking of the period as a whole, there were winters that were a dud for various areas in the 2004-2014 period.

CDA is really nice. My mother is from Bonners Ferry area. My folks now live down in SE Idaho though.

I forgot to add I lived in Olympia area from 1988-2001 or from about my elementary school years through high school. I was excited to move away then but found it nice to move back to the PNW in 2010 for work reasons. I do prefer the Portland climate over most of western WA especially in summertime. I can actually grow decent tomatoes down here.

Or travel a lot if your finances allow. Coming from someone who has lived in rather cold and snowy climes (Idaho and Utah), I like not having to shovel snow all winter long and enjoying the park with my kids on a mild but dry winter day with temps around 50. To each their own though.

Methinks this was a topic of discussion a couple nights ago. I say let the weenies have their fun, but if folks ask for my opinion they will get it, whether it be something they like or not.

I recommend looking at individual ECMWF members through a wx subscription service if you really want to put it in context...especially for something as nuanced as snow. Keep in mind however that while the ECMWF deterministic run features a 14 km grid, the ensembles are ran at only 50% the resolution (28 km). Thus the ensembles tend to feature some elevation contamination to snowfall totals especially. It is useful to compare the various members to the deterministic keeping that in mind. I found this method very useful when forecasting snow amounts with our winter storms in the Portland area in early February.

12z ECMWF hit the snowfall pretty hard for BLI-YVR Sun-Mon. Raw totals: YVR: 9.2" Blaine: 9.0" BLI: 8.2" Mt Vernon: 3.4" Arlington 2.0" Everett 0.3" Nanaimo: 9.7" Victoria: 4.1"

I am not optimistic about Monday-Tuesday, truthfully. Perhaps a marginal light snow risk east of Cascade Locks, a trace to 1". I think precip rates will be light and only 0.05 to 0.10" QPF for the event. I see no wintry precip risk for areas around TTD with this event.

I am forecasting those values as totals from now through Monday morning, not from any single storm. Sorry if there was some confusion there.

Congrats! Wife and I had triplet daughters in Feb 2012.