snow_wizard

The cold is pretty much done. It was 30 here earlier now it's almost up to 31. Way milder than recent evenings. Hopefully this reset will help the have nots get some snow later on.

I just wanted to make a comment on Tim's post that said nothing like this will happen again. Past history begs to differ. Events like this or better used to happen a lot more often and even more recently happened in 1993. If you look at the period 1916 through 1937 there were five winters that featured long lasting deep cold with lots of sunny days in January. That's an average of over two per decade. After that you had more of the same in 1943, 1949, 1950, 1957, 1963, 1979. Also a nice streak of cold weather with snow on the ground in late Jan / early Feb 1972.

There seems to a theme emerging of a two step retrogression of the Hudson Bay block. First step puts a ridge over us and then step two takes it to Alaska. We might be in business again around Feb 1.

You're wimping out dude! Having your snow fix taken care of may change your perspective though. I'm kind of bummed we are only a few more cold days away from being able to ice fish on Lake Meridian. Would have been pretty cool.

For some reason 60% kind of popped into my head yesterday also. Pretty good chance it will happen.

Pretty obvious things are trending in a very good way at the end of the 0z GFS, but that's a long ways out. It kind of agrees with the thoughts of the 12z ECMWF ensemble though. All of the chunks of blocking want to migrate back to Alaska.

92-93 actually had persistent cold the second half of February. Not that it would probably matter anyway. Snow probably isn't in the cards for Seattle this winter.

Driving to snow is just depressing to me. What good is it? The downer of coming back more than offsets the fun of going to it. The whole point people have been making on here is it should have snowed here with 6 weeks of cold weather. 30s to 50s may be a bit of an exaggeration of how mild it is here. We have had 6 weeks it has failed to reach 50.

They can certainly happen for others.

Welcome to the NW when some people get ****** over while others score huge.

A little bit of snow would really help. This climate is capable of that. I don't how expecting it to snow when it's cold is trying to fit a square peg into a round hole.

We'll see after we have a couple of cool not so great summers and a couple of Nov 2006 type fire hoses. No matter what it's like putting lipstick on a pig unless you are talking about the 1890s or the 1950s.

Excellent points! We still have to figure out where we will go. I really never thought this place would eventually get to me this much. Such a shame in a winter that has had such promise. To be fair though this has been coming on for years. This major solar minimum has a lot of lot of work to do to change my mind.

This climate does suck, but admittedly we might be entering a better period that will feature more blocking / cold. My dad's siblings who have lived here their entire lives are finally moving out of here...in fact one already has. It just wears you down over time.

I'm going to when I can. The fact I can't right now drives me insane. This climate / micro climate keeps finding new ways to make me more agitated than I ever thought possible. I swear we could have a verbatim Jan 1950 redux (at the 500mb level) and it would find a way to **** me over.

Pretty easy for you to say after two great snowy winters in the past 4 years.

This climate can just drive a person up the wall!

I'm just not getting why you are mocking the people who didn't get snow. You almost come off like they deserve it for living where they do. It does snow in places that have been shafted this winter you know. A load of bad luck for some. This winter really frustrates me because the big picture is good, but D**n near everyone has gotten good snowfall except for some places in the Central Puget Sound. Historically speaking we should have done better. This really stings after the same D**n thing happened in 2013-14. I think it's more likely than not this area won't hit the pay station this winter at all. And then who knows what kind of winter we will have next season. If we can stay away from a Nino it will probably be decent, but still...

The ECMWF ensemble likes the idea of the Hudson Bay block retrograding toward Alaska later in week two. That would probably work out for us in the long run.

He's over the line this time.

WTF is wrong with Tim anyway? What a ******* bully.

I'm not going to take these posts where Tim tries to make it sound like I'm an idiot. I flat out predicted lowland snow on New Years way before it happened. Just as an example..

You're a ******* *******. I said the ECMWF showed a highly blocked pattern that would make it cold. The last part of the post I was talking about snow. I'm so glad you got your fill of snow and you can rub in it in everyone's face that didn't get any.

You are totally in minority there. Not shocking given how persistently cold it has been. We could just never find a way to get moisture in here when it was cold enough for snow. Pretty amazing to be cold enough to freeze the lakes around here and have almost no snow in the process.

There could be a shot at some 500 to 1000 foot snow levels in there later in the week.