snow_wizard

One thing for sure....the models are going to have fits trying to figure out the coming pattern. Highly abnormal configuration coming up. The ECMWF shows a highly blocked pattern returning in week two with a high chance of well below normal temperatures once again. An emerging MJO wave is only going to muddy the waters even more. My biggest concern is the type of pattern coming up may find little opportunity to bring us moisture and cold together. Impossible to know for sure though.

Incredible to see records from 1909, 1949, and 1950 going down. It has been 50 years since some locations have seen record lows in January.

Quite a few differences here. 1921-22 was a pretty snowy winter down this way Jan 1935 was very snowy in the Puget Sound region 1965-66 was quite snowy here Dec 1974 had a big rain to snow event down here That having been said long low snow periods have happened here while Portland has done much better.

A huge issue this time is frozen ground. Water is going to have a very difficult time soaking in. The ground is frozen pretty deep in places that don't have snow cover.

Very true. I think at least one of the next three winters will have lake freezing cold again. We are now getting into what will probably be the deepest solar minimum at least since the Dalton minimum. Besides all of the other cycles we have talked about there also seem to be certain decades that end up much colder and blockier than others (1930s, 1950s, 1980s). No reason to think this winter is a fluke.

The ECMWF already has the Pacific shut down again by day 10 if not sooner.

Let's hope we won't have to wait so long for the next one.

One final note about solar activity. If you look at the deepest part of the last solar minimum (2007-2010) on the last cycle it's pretty easy to see why we should be excited about where we are.

This winter has really whetted my appetite for more cold winters in the coming years. No doubt the snow will come if we can keep coming up with ones like this. I'm working on a spread sheet showing all of the Arctic outbreaks for Dec 26 through Feb 5 and will post it when I'm done. It will include duration, cold intensity, total snowfall, snowfall going in, snowfall going out, etc. This will only be based on Seattle records, but it gives a good feel for what has happened in the past. Pretty remarkable how many events have exceeded this in one, some, or all categories. This one has been kind of an old time event however. If this is being caused by the lower solar activity which really began with the last cycle one can only imagine what might be forthcoming. There is plenty of anecdotal evidence the little ice age was largely driven by low solar activity causing more frequent and longer lasting blocking regimes over the NE Pacific and the North Atlantic. We only have records for the NW from the tail end of the little ice age, but those are compelling to say the least. I would love to know what happened here in the 1600s.

It would be nice to thread the needle and avoid the 50, but that would be a stretch.

Impressive stuff. Large lakes in this area are frozen over too. At least this winter is giving us a taste of what used to happen and obviously still can happen.

I actually think the 0z GFS looked like an improvement over previous runs. More of a dirty ridge (over the NE Pacific) look to it. It's going to be almost strange finally going into mild temperatures. It hasn't been 50 here since November.

Your avatar is insane!

The temp is falling like a raped ape this evening after a brief spike into the low 40s today. Back down to 34 now. Too bad now the lake is frozen over and it's about to warm up. It would have been good to walk on in a few more days.

Amazingly SEA has a shot at the coldest Jan 1 - Jan 15 since 1950 if tomorrow is cold enough. The only reason this possibility is on the table is because they underperformed in 1993 and 1979. Even 1963 wasn't as cold as this will be. After today they are running around 32.4 for the first 14 days of January and 1993 ended up at 32.9 for the first 15 days. Most of the great January cold waves since 1950 have been in the second half of the month or in the middle and final third.

Looking from the outside I would clearly take this over Dec 2008. Breaking a record Jan 1950 is worth a few points right off the bat. So many clear and cold days after the snow and the fact you had two separate snow events during this event. And of course bonus points for being January.

I was probably a bit desperate on that one, although SEA did manage to pick up 3 inches with it. That zone could have just as easily been down here. All in all less extensive than I had hoped though.

That is indeed the magic combo. One thing I do like about this winter is how old school it has been. Even the CPC analogs have mostly been old on this. Nice to see. As you and I both know the snowfall battle between Portland and Seattle has and will continue to be a major factor around here except in the really big winters where everyone scores.

On the other hand it's not really common to have this much cold and not score at least one decent snowfall.

I just hope all of the cold and blocking this winter is for real and we see it somewhat regularly like we used to. Maybe even have 2 or 3 good winters in a row sometimes. Just unreal to look at Januaries from 1969 and before compared to recent years. Cold waves as deep or deeper than this used to happen twice and sometimes three times a decade in the month of January. If dropping solar activity is the cause we should be golden.

It's actually Klonopin. Just need it once in a while. It has gotten to the point I won't be able to enjoy a snow event until it's actually going and the radar shows it continuing. I just get so worked up knowing it will find some way to screw us.

Well...it's not like it hasn't been cold here to. I have no gripe about that.

The cold is getting very shallow to say the least. Portland and the Willamette Valley can be amazing with snow on the ground and weak offshore flow.

I'll try to post most says. I'm still pretty sour, but getting a little bit better.

Ouch! Might have to keep an eye on it for a possible hernia.