TT-SEA

Looks like some seriously below normal days coming up between now and Sept 10.  Yay!!!!!!!!!!

 

Portland managed to pull off a pretty big minus on their high today.  It's been a long time since we've seen temps underperform, but they have in various locations the last few days.

 

Definitely looks solidly cool for the next 10 days.     

You would think someone who gets as much snow as he does wouldn't complain so much... you'd be wrong lol

 

When is all this complaining happening?

How often do you see snow in your area?

Every winter. Sometimes lots of it and sometimes just a little.

 

Snowed endlessly here in 2007-08 for example... 150+ inches.

 

Barely anything in 2013-14.

Is he bugging you?

 

 

No. 

You're the king of hyperbole, my friend. I was just describing a model run verbatim, nothing more. I even explicitly stated that wasn't my forecast.

 

Got our attention.  

You always claim myself and others have a vendetta against you... Statman hit the nail on the head

 

 

Just you and Jesse.    Phil does not have a vendetta against me at all.     

Cry me a river. I haven't "insulted" anyone today to a greater extent than I have been "insulted" myself. Stop whining.

If you're going to throw backhanded (and forehanded) insults at me, you should expect retribution.

Ha! Own your hyperbole. If you want to be dramatic to make your points then its best to understand how that can be perceived by people. It might come back on you later. Like -10F depatures by the 10th. You wanted to get everyone's attention. It worked.

Take notes Tim

 

 

    Funny!  

 

I have no idea what are referring to... don't really care either.    

 

General trend is upward starting next week...

 http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

Interesting.

 

Ensemble mean is clearly trending in the same direction. And the ECMWF lends some support as well.

Only 64° as of now. Hard pressed to make 70° with all these clouds.

 

 

No doubt.   As usual the models are overly-optimistic with low clouds clearing after a solid marine push.  

Looks more likely to retrograde again to me.

 

Certainly possible.   No way of knowing.

 

Unless Matt is now in control of the global weather patterns?    If so... he should get his act in gear here!  

General trend is upward starting next week...

 

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

Tim has thrown more insults at me today than I have to him. He's made all the accusations, actually.

 

You just have some stupid little vendetta against me.

 

 

Warm up after the cool down?

 

Details at 11.

 

 

Could go either way!  

Tim could shoot me in the head, and WxStuntman would still find a way to justify it.

 

Drama?   

12z Euro does look a little dangerous at day 10.

 

 

Yes... if that trough digs out into the Bering Sea we might be able to pump up a ridge here and savor a little more summer.      

 

http://stream.ecmwf.int/data/atls09/data/data01/scratch/ps2png-atls09-95e2cf679cd58ee9b4db4dd119a05a8d-bfFWRb.png

So... anywhooooo.

 

I like the analog years with a cool neutral or a very weak Nina.      A whole new set of years to look at now.  

How can I possibly come to any other conclusion? Really?

 

You and Tim are the only people that were somehow "duped" by my (nonexistent) drama regarding the ENSO evolution, despite me having explicitly stated that I wasn't forecast a strong Niña.

 

Are you a scientific minded human being who thinks for himself?

 

You are the expert.   Remember that when using dramatic language.   It can lead people astray.   You have a reputation here of doing that for years.   Just something to work on.  

Probably not. Just thought it would break things up a bit.

 

 

It does look better for next week.  

You called for a strong Niña, which excited me and caused me to be overly dramatic.

 

 

 

OK.   That is what happened.    Sure.    Lets go with that.   

Though I'm not surprised you two would fail to pick up what should be obvious and straightforward, you should know that my posts on the IO had nothing to do with the ENSO progression, there wasn't even a hint of me suggesting otherwise.

 

You were predicting a strong Niña well in advance of that. Unless you can find ENSO-related posts preceding that forecast, your claim is baseless.

 

I was completely off-base.   I was completely wrong.   I had no basis for my interpretation.    What else do you want?

 

You posted excitedly and with strong, dramatic language about the developing Nina and I interpreted that to mean a strong Nina was coming.      I don't care about the timing of events.     Others also came to that conclusion... or as statman said would have come to that conclusion.  

 

I showed you a few of the posts that led me to my incorrect conclusion.   It is what it is.    Just factually what happened.

Again, you were already harping on a strong La Niña at this point, despite my suggestions that the Niña would mature to a modest moderate.

 

The SSTAs did indeed "crash" by over 1.5C in 8 weeks. That's the definition of a crash. Not drama (that's your specialty).

 

You're not gonna wiggle out of this one.

 

How am I wiggling out??    

 

Good lord.   I have said 20 times now that I misinterpreted your posts.     

 

You said to show you posts that led me to my belief that a strong Nina was coming.   I just showed you a few of them.    That is where I went astray.    It is what it is.   

Reinforcing trough on the 12Z ECMWF for Sunday that was much weaker on the runs yesterday.  

 

Labor Day weekend is not going to be summery in any way.  

Tim, look at the timestamps on those posts. Your "strong Niña analog" posts came before I started discussing the IO warmth. Well before.

 

Nice try, but you were the one forecasting a strong La Niña.

 

 

I said I was wrong in my interpretation.   

 

You can see from the language how one might be led in that direction.    Statman just said the same thing.   

 

I know from context that Jesse was also a big believer that a strong Nina was coming... it almost seemed inevitable with the exciting terms being used by the ENSO expert.  

Let's set the facts straight. The "IO going nuclear" comment was irrelevant to the longer term ENSO state, and it was completely warranted, as SSTs reached up to 95F.

 

As a result, the IO cell was altered enough to induce the most anomalous -IOD cell in over 20 years,

 

 

Of course you will defend every statement you made.   And maybe they were factually correct at the time.  

 

Overall... the implication came across like this was an unbelievable and amazing ENSO transition.     I am sorry that I interpreted that way... but I did.  

 

I need to adjust to the reality that we have a coolish neutral or weak Nina scenario.   One that I was hoping for... and I think it will be beneficial for cold and snow in the PNW this winter.