TT-SEA

The new CFS monthly outlook released this morning is warm every month for the PNW from now until next spring... but January is the closest to being something good with cold air across western BC.

December is shown to be a nationwide blowtorch.  

Damage control!

I would have reported that either way.

What damage? 2007-08 was my response to the something to behold comment. I will say it again... 2007-08.

Tendency in the models now to cut-off part of the weekend trough over Oregon and Northern CA early next week.   Keeps the warmth in check for sure.   

00Z ECMWF is showing this as well... about 2 degrees cooler for Tuesday compared to the 12Z run.  Now shows 75 at SEA and 80 at PDX that day.

Good. No one wants snow on Christmas. Save it for when it matters, January. There's a 800 lb gorilla on our backs!

Might be the year!

FWIW... the 00Z GFS MOS does not show 60s now for Sunday in Seattle.     74, 74, 71 the next 3 days at SEA.   

 

More noticeable drop at PDX... 80, 82, 72.

00Z ECMWF has 66 at SEA on Sunday... and 69 at PDX.

You just lectured us on being respectful, then you call me a jerk.

 

Ah...classic Tim.

No... at times you are just challenging me on tiny details to be a jerk.    You know that is true.   That does not mean you are a jerk.   Sometimes you play the part though.  

Looks consistently warm but not anything extreme.

http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

Only you care.

Only you seem to care when challenging me on tiny details just to be a jerk.   But you do it anyways!  

You aren't respectful though. You throw insults left and right at Jim which you think fly under the radar. It's painfully obvious everytime

I would venture to say that you have insulted me directly far beyond any personal insults you perceive me 'throwing' at Jim.    I did not insult him tonight and rarely insult him personally.   I respect him as a person and a cohort is this weather forum mania for over a decade.

I merely said 2007-08... which is a valid example.    Everything since has been another waste of time.   Just let it be.   It was a fair response.   

Yeah, I thought that was a pretty weird example. Apparently Tim was just in the mood for a rant.

A continuation might not be something to behold.   Saying it would be is over-confident.    Needless to say.  

My completely objective opinion is that I don't play favorites. I call out anyone, including myself. This is evident by the fact that I manage to offend just about everyone at some point. Including myself.

 

You just don't like being called out, period.

I am called out all the time.   Inherent part of the discussion here.

Respectfully challenging people should be a fundamental part of the discourse.   

Respectfully is the key.   I was respectful.   

I am going to respectfully challenge Jim at times when he is over-confident.     Its OK.   Deal with it.   

Its not personal.   And many times I agree with him.   He challenges me as well.   

The banter afterwards is 10 times worse than the actual posts from myself and Jim.    

Just let it be.    

The difference between you and Jim has been explained many times. The only reason you don't get it is because of how Tim you are.

So what.   

Over-confident predictions should probably be challenged.   Regardless of the person making the claim.   Otherwise its just people rattling off wishcasts.   

Jim did not make a declarative statement though.

It would be something to behold.       

Maybe not.    Pretty strong assumption.   

Why are we hoping for troughing right now when it does not matter for the winter?

It always matters Chris!    

Classic Jim and Classic Tim are not mutually exclusive. More the opposite.

When I make over-confident predictions or claims... you call me on it.   And you should.

Same thing should apply to everyone.  

No big deal.   I can challenge statements that are over-confident as well.    Jim makes lots of them.  

Which is, of course, why you brought it up with Jim. Classic Tim.

Classic Jim actually. It always works out the next time around. Might not be something to behold in the lowlands.

Could be... or could be nothing at all.

I was just questioning a declarative statement. Fair enough. You call me out for literally every declarative statement I make.

Double standard as Matt has pointed out many times.    Challenge Jim too.   Its OK... its a discussion about the science of weather.  

Why did they get rid of the nice western US satellite images? Now they link you different ones which seem to have less resolution. The Seattle centered image on the NWS site does not even have the county borders. Hard to tell where places are located.

That winter only needed a bit more amplification of the offshore ridge to be awesome for the lowlands. In general, the ridge position was where you want it.

Right. A winter to behold. It was here anyways. I have heard not so much elsewhere.

Amazing how that GOA ridge keeps popping up over and over again.  It wouldn't surprise me at all if the 0z GFS is right.  The GOA anomalies this summer have been in the top tier on the positive side.  Needless to say a continuation this winter would be something to behold.

2007-08?

I think you'd be throwing a temper tantrum if you were experiencing this weather.

 

There's so much condensation on our bedroom window right now that water is beginning to puddle on/under the window-sill. We had to put a towel there..smh

Yeah... I will take our weather for now.   I might be jealous of your weather again soon enough though.

At least half of the recent GFS runs put us in a trough again during week two.  The ridge next week looks pretty flat on the 0z.

Very nice weather ahead.   Get out and enjoy it.   Rumor has it that it will rain for most of the next 6 months.   

Yes. Join me, you know you want to.

Why?  Lovely weather here.    I believe this year I have really complained once... about 3 days of rain in June because the models were wrong and we had plans.   And I am still hearing about it.   

And don't tell me about the regime for the last 2 years.    Its been a very wet regime this decade here.    It has to get better... meaning drier... for a few years.

FWIW... the 00Z GFS MOS does not show 60s now for Sunday in Seattle.     74, 74, 71 the next 3 days at SEA.   

More noticeable drop at PDX... 80, 82, 72.

Broncos are lucky SOBs.

Glad to see Carolina get a loss out of the gate. Could help the Seahawks. Plus that punk Cam lost the very next game to the same team after storming off from his Super Bowl post game media session.