TT-SEA

00Z ECMWF looks dry for Friday - Sunday now... recent runs had precip all weekend.

Such a vague and meandering pattern. This one is going to drive us all crazy since the fine details are probably going to change almost randomly.

The 06Z GFS is not good for genuine cold through the entire run... there is not even the fantasy stuff in the long range.

Looks like PDX has put together a respectable string of minus departure days.  At the same time SEA has been absolutely pathetic.  Almost embarrassing to look at the SEA numbers this winter.  I hope they come up with some solutions for the warm bias this year.

I don't have stats... but I am very sure this winter has been significantly above normal here.    I am just over the hill from your house.   

If something does not happen in February you will probably be grading this winter very low... so why worry about whether SEA is at -1 or +2 or whatever.     It has been warm across the region above the inversions again.    Its not like we have had genuine cold air except for a week in December.    

It is so irrelevant without memorable winter weather.   What do you do with that information?     So the ambient air temperature at SEA was slightly warmer during a winter with almost no memorable weather.    How are you embarrassed?   Is anyone judging you on this... does anyone else care??        

Tonight may have the thickest freezing fog I have ever seen. I would say the vis is about 1/32 of a mile. Looks like this amazing string of fog days is going to end with a bang.

It has not been a foggy week at all for most places.    There was relatively little fog in the past week even in the lowlands.     Not really an amazing string.    

But it does look foggy down there right now.     Offshore gradients increasing... breezy and clear here.

BTW...even Tim said he thinks something will happen next month. He is just stirring up animosity on here and egging on the weenies. It is not fun coming here anymore. Maybe when the snow actually starts to fall it might become enjoyable again.

I think something will be coming within the next month... but not based on the 00Z GFS.  

That run was pure crap.   

I have not even looked at the ECMWF ensembles.     Everything is vague and messy right now.   It will take awhile for this to settle out.    

The 0z doesn't really suck, but that's just me I guess.

I think your internal personal expectations are quite low... but on here you talk as if there is no reason to doubt a massive arctic outbreak and 2 feet of snow in Seattle within a 10 days.    

Comes across very odd.   

The 00Z GFS has nothing of any interest until 336 hours... which is completely meaningless.

And yet you think its a good run.   I believe that is because in reality you are not expecting much.

This is really what I’m hoping for. I want a level playing field. If the weather was bad, it would be all we hear about following the Super Bowl, saying that if it were in a warm weather climate the Broncos probably would have won. 

I was thinking that as well.     No weather issues at all is the best thing if we want credit for winning.    Assuming we can beat Denver with no crowd or weather advantage.

Super Bowl looking dry... maybe breezy but not very cold.   

Weather will likely not be a factor at all.  

West coast ridge dominates until the Feb 7-8 on this run. Brutally cold for the Midwest and East.

Shocking.     <_>

00Z GFS is totally different than the 12Z GFS at 162 hours.

 

I guess you don't want to move to NE BC then. They have something like 2,000+ hours of Sun in the Winter, but it's really cold most of the Winter. Most days it's below 0 F up there. They also get some Snow from time to time, but it's mostly fluffy and light if anything, and it almost never leaves.

 

Edit: I think the 2,000+ hours if for the year.

 

http://www.theweathernetwork.com/forecasts/statistics/suncloud/cl1183000/cabc0102

I linked to this video from there... fun stuff.    And they talk about the sun quieting down like it did in the 1600s.   How ironic.  

http://www.theweathernetwork.com/videos/gallery/all/video_gallery/active-weather-system-that-just-wont-quit/sharevideo/3110269456001

That would actually be a disaster for life as we know it... don't think we really want that.      

I would pay big money to have that weather here. I hate the sun in winter. Unless there is 2ft of snow.

They have lots of sun during the winter... it was even sunny today there with white out conditions at times.   

The reason I'm seeming to be unrealistic is because I'm so sure the cold will happen.  I admit I was wrong about early January, but was right about the December event.  50/50 so far.  The cold snap next month will make it 67/33.  There is much stronger model consensus about the upcoming event than there was for the January one..

Seems pretty obvious there will be some type of cold spell.   Not sure that means you will be shoveling snow though.    

But talking about all the signs... good and bad... should be encouraged.    Why does this forum have to exist just to soothe your mind and support every theory you have?   An early event usually means a late event... particularly in a neutral winter.    Not really an amazing prediction.    

Nice call... pessimist.

Realist.  

Here is something interesting... it will rain on Tuesday.   

How long are we going to play this tune? The "some" you refer to are Jim and Jesse, nobody else that I know of. Why not just let them be and move on. You kept beating on Jim days after he's stopped posting. Can't you let it go?

I would love to... they keep ridiculing everyone who posts anything other than great news.  Calling an honest discussion 'depressing'.

Looks like SLE had 51/24 today.

Pleasant 55 here... we were outside all day.

Here is my son shooting hoops in North Bend this afternoon:

For many years... the SE was in a terrible drought.  

I remember looking at these maps and thinking something must have changed with their climate down there because the SE was perpetually in a drought.

Looks like its changed.    Maybe the NW will be in a drought for a few years now.     

Even SEA had a minus 3 today.  It's almost impossible for them to average below normal with the new runway or whatever their problem is.

Shallow layer of low level moisture to due weakened offshore flow last night.    

I was pointing it out because the GFS ensembles are clearly beginning to divide into two camps in the long range. There are a lot more cold members, but also a lot more warm ones. There really aren't any members around the mean, on the 18z ensembles it was either cold or mild really out in the long range. 

 

You can point out all the cold members and ignore the warmer solutions if you want. That is the individual prerogative. 

Are you new here?     

All bad signs will be completely ignored by some... until it becomes painfully obvious that we still have to deal with reality.      That is what happened with January.  

Eventually something good will happen and then it will be justified to continue like that for another 2 years.        

He'll joke it off later.  It's kind of nice you can't delete your own posts here.  True colors a little more vivid.  

He can still edit his post to say something totally different and unrelated.

You are quickly becoming one of the most annoying members of this forum. Congrats.

This is getting ridiculous.    Anyone who says anything realistic and honest... but goes against the dream of a massive arctic blast and snow... is immediately mocked.

We are not able to discuss reality at all on here.     Too much of this 'only say things I want to hear' stuff now.    

This winter has been pathetic. Meanwhile its snowing on the Gulf Coast. 

18Z is really frustrating.    Never quite gets there.  

Nice to see the temps so much lower today! Down to 41 now at 1:45pm.

Offshore flow starting... up to 54 here and climbing.

I'm just sick of the overall attitude on here that it's impossible this winter will turn in our favor before it's over. In a neutral year it's the most likely outcome. I'll just sit back and watch the naysayers be dead wrong.

I am almost certain something will happen... might be in the second half of the month.

Mark me down at 90%.