TT-SEA

Silly looking... almost all of North America in the deep freeze? Something tells me that if the cold stays entrenched in the Midwest then we will continue to see the same general pattern out here.

I am not sure if this winter is like 1976-77 or not... certainly dry enough but not sure about the overall pattern. That summer was FAR from being too hot and dry up here. It rained almost constantly until June... it was 63 degrees and raining on the 4th of July... and did not even reach 80 degrees until August. By the last week of August it was raining again and only in the 60s for highs. I would call that a pretty miserable summer overall... for being too cold and wet.

The type of evolution shown on the 00Z ECMWF and 06Z GFS is ultimately how I think this thing could go sideways on us... it goes back to Dewey's comments about the lack of a major player to force the change. Its crystal clear here again this morning... but a touch cooler with the lack of wind. Should turn breezy again today capping off a gorgeous weekend out here. Regardless of the evolution from an arctic air perspective... there is still no sign at all of an active jet stream. That is a little disturbing... even if the cold fails to materialize. The longer it waits... the more I think we will be paying for this until June.

Friday now looks totally dry up here.

Thursday/Friday system keeps sinking farther south with each run. I assume that could also accelerate the cold air intrusion. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_120_precip_p06.gif

00Z WRF also shows some Fraser outflow tomorrow afternoon... albeit warm outflow for now. http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d2/ww_wgsfc.24.0000.gif

WRF shows the east wind being pretty light out here tonight and tomorrow morning but then gets it cranking again by 1 p.m. The 12Z WRF also showed some strong east winds on Monday.

Then please stop mocking people for commenting on the spring-like weather while you sit in freezing conditions that are completely different. You can't let it die. You refuse to accept that it can be spring-like in January here. But it can and it definitely has been. Extremes beget extremes right???

I was thinking the same thing... just was not able to articulate my feeling on the evolution. You nailed it.

We were at Costco late this afternoon... loading up the car next to another family in the parking lot and the guy said this feels like May rather than January. I told him that usually means May will feel like January. To which he responded with a load groan.

This is part of the problem. Its been freezing cold there while so much warmer elsewhere and you have not experienced the warm weather. If you just had 3 days in a row in the 60s with total sunshine like I have had here... you would not be mocking the spring-like comments. It was more than spring-like here today. It was probably 75 degrees sitting on our deck this afternoon. It was really warm... kids were barefoot in t-shirts and commenting on how warm they were. Granted... its wind-protected by the fireplace and on a dark surface. But man... it made me want a margarita.

Bring it on... in addition to cold and snow I am really hoping for a ton of rain in February.

62 here. Screw spring... felt like early summer eating lunch on deck this afternoon.

I think people know that... but it does not happen very often. There is no doubt it will turn colder for the first part of February. Not sure how cold yet though.

He was joking.

Not so much the temperatures down there... but the unusual amount of sunshine and dry weather. It has been spring-like recently. Nobody was saying that a couple weeks ago. Its been more recently. I am sure my area is running well above normal though.

Jesse... I promise you that will use the term 'winter-like' several times in June and it will be 100% accurate as well. Today will be very spring-like again at my location. Sunny... upper 50s and lows 60s... daffodils coming up and magnolia tree budding... grass turning green. How is that NOT spring-like??? And yes... winter will absolutely return. But I will be enjoying this spring-like weather while it lasts.

Does not look like it. Basically clear most everywhere already this morning... even for you. Might be the opposite of yesterday at your location today... with sunshine all day long. Tomorrow could be a little more foggy but we are getting close to transitioning out of the inversion season anyways.

My thought as well.

Pretty close to snow next Friday evening with a low offshore... ample moisture... and a low offshore on the 00Z GFS. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_171_precip_p06.gif Something to watch at least. Despite my lack of excitement... my kids would still LOVE some snow.

I just don't get real excited about snow starting in February. By the middle of March its downright annoying. Compare that to my attitude in late November and December when I am totally jacked up about even a small possibility of snow and model ride with the best.

I would be surprised if I don't get a foot of snow next month. Might miss most of it in Hawaii though. Not that it would bother me.

I know it will snow at my house as well. Not exactly a big deal though.

SEA-EAT gradient up to a impressive -10.1 now... stiff east wind out there. Lip-chapping dry. Gradients goes almost flat tomorrow afternoon though.

61 here today with a dewpoint in the 20s. About as far from fog as possible. SEA hit 55 with sunshine all day.