TT-SEA

To cold?

Too fast with the transition.    

Also did a comparison of the 00Z last night, 12Z, and the new 00Z... the cold is not as far south on the latest run during the middle of the week.   

Not a fan of the 00Z ECMWF.

Get those guesses in now on the contest!

Not real impressed with snow totals on WRF tonight, but thats ok, still a week away.

Need it to back down more on the strength of the flow... its getting there.      My guess is that it will get weaker than what is shown... but with plenty of moisture.

This is the benefit of more offshore flow for next Saturday.      Big difference.     

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_extended/images_d2/slp.165.0000.gif

PDX

2/4: 41/27

2/5: 37/24

2/6: 32/21

2/7: 34/15

2/8: 31/23  (4" of snow)

SEA

2/4: 37/26

2/5: 36/23

2/6: 35/21

2/7: 34/20

2/8: 33/26  (4" of snow)

Me too.

Me three.

Even if it doesn't show impressive snow... I know the pattern is much more favorable and it will catch up if the 00Z GFS has the basic pattern correct.

There needs to be a warning for next weekend. The public needs to. Warned. This will be dangerous. Im already getting ready.

I actually agree that it could have major impacts.    And warnings might be coming in a couple days if this keeps up.   

I bet your kids appreciated you messaging on the forums all day.. “Dad watch!” ....”Hold on I have to finish this post... and the next... and finish reading this page... Oh wait I have to post about how dry next week is going to be and let everyone know that 30*F even with a breeze isn’t cold!” ....” Dad, but watch!” .... (wife) “ Honey just watch the kids for once, can’t you play on your phone later?” .... “honey, this is really important, if people think 30* is cold, i won’t be able to sleep tonight!"

I did not post all afternoon.   Check it out.    Stop attacking me personally.

It feels dishonest to go up there and play all day with everyone saying how warm it was... and then call the exact same temperature brutally cold later this week.       Whether its 25 degrees below normal or not.    We all called it warm today... how can it be so incredibly cold in 3 days?    

That does not take away anything that is happening from an upper air perspective.    That stuff is awesome.   Snow going in would have made this a 1989 repeat.

00z nails PDX with a snow storm, then ice storm.... Awesome

Not sure why I didn't think of this... back off the strength of the flow since that is what will happen in the models but we still get the moisture.    Dewey called it and it appears to be heading that way.

Next weekend has serious potential.  

This was the afternoon of the 20th:

 

 

Sort of looks like that Canadian map above... just one day later.  

00Z Canadian at 144 hours:

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/00_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_144.jpg

Remember what Dewey said about the Pacific influence... it will likely fade in the models in the 4-6 day period.      That might be just what we need.   We get the moisture but such a strong push.   

All it will take is a slight shift south and a merge with the energy dropping down out of Canada to turn this into a big deal.

I told Jesse... all of our historic snow events were probably playing with fire and it worked.   

The other huge factor that I could see really benefiting us next weekend is if everything continues to shift a little west.    

The 00Z run has done this... keeps us in offshore flow much longer.     This is Sunday:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_192_precip_p06.gif

Mark it down. Next weekend is going to be a good one and I can see this turning into a 2008 type of event. I dont think we will transition out of the cold so soon or so fast. I never make predictions here but this looks like it has tons of potential.

I need to see a 500mb map from 12/20/2008.

I can't remember if it was similar... but I am feeling next weekend more with each run.

I am seeing about 6 inches of snow for most people on Saturday per the 00Z GFS... tons of moisture and offshore flow.   

This pattern has incredible potential.

 

What happens with the energy coming in from the north around that time could make the difference between good and epic.

Yeah... Saturday could be huge with such strong offshore flow.

Next Saturday looks snowy on the 00Z GFS... good offshore flow.

Just stop. I'm so tired of this s**t.

I absolutely appreciate the pattern and the historic nature of getting this twice in one winter.    And I know you appreciate the hell out of it.   

You're welcome.

You were right and I was wrong.    100%.   

Tomorrow will be even nicer.

The gorgeous view coming down from Snoqualmie Pass this afternoon...

Where I guess it was brutally cold in the upper 20s.      

00z GFS is looking chilly

Looks like its dug in a little deeper.   I like that.

Could be a close call for snow on the coast tomorrow evening as well... WRF is really close.

So much for being cloudy all weekend Tim

Yeah... that definitely improved!

Very glad.

Tim. The MM-NAM or the WRF-GFS? I only see the WRF out to 27 hours.

WRF... shows precip down there.   Although I am not sure of your exact location.