TT-SEA

Here is the total snow through 72 hours going into the cold air mass per the 12Z WRF:

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_gfs/images_d2/msnow72.84.0000.gif

Nada.     

GFS MOS has SEA at 40/27 on Monday with sunshine.    That will seem like nothing but a nice day to the vast majority of people.

If so, we stay way colder for much longer....

Yep.

12Z Canadian shows the undercut happening WAY south...  like through California.

http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/12_054_G1_north@america@zoomout_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_144.jpg

February 1956 was pretty good up here.

 

Snow cover all, but two days that month.

 

http://climate.usurf.usu.edu/reports/e15daily.php?stn=USC00357809&year=1956&month=2&unit=EN&network=direct:ghcn&sidebar=0

Those measurements are so strange.     7.99 inches of snow on the ground??     

How did you get that nice monthly view??   All I can get there are CSV and EXCEL files in an ugly format.

PDX saw a high in the teens on 2/3/89. This cold wave looks like it will bottom out on 2/6/14. Do three days really make that big of a difference with regard to sun angle?

 

Obviously February '89 was colder than this will be, but 850s around -15c and raging outflow would be able to keep PDX below 29 pretty handily.

Not sure about down there... but there was a foot of snow on the ground up here.   That is what makes all the difference in the world with temperatures.

I don't understand why you're focusing on the end of the event right now anyway. Lots of details that will likely change. There is a ton of ensemble spread starting the 9th.

Unfortunately... the rest is going to be pretty boring for most people.   I don't honestly care that much about -14C or -18C or whatever if its sunny and the ground is bare.   It looks fairly pleasant (i.e. dry and sunny) with no hassles during the cold event.     The next exciting thing is the transition event.     

Looks pretty good for out here.

Yes... almost certain this event has to favor your area.

Seattle is likely going into this snowless and will probably come out like it did in December.    Fast and messy.

Just following up on what we thought was an incredible snow event for the lowlands next weekend... the 00Z WRF has the transition happening already by Saturday morning and the totals are not that crazy.

http://s29.postimg.org/h3dzf1ao7/snow1.png

Already scouring the cold air by 4 a.m. on Saturday:

http://s27.postimg.org/djb1sdt83/snow2.png

The flow is SW... not offshore... and that kills the snow chances quickly.     ECMWF showed this as well.    

The WRF suggests highs in the low to mid 20s for Seattle on Wednesday. That is bloody cold!

Won't happen... you fell for this in December as well.     Bare ground and February sunshine to boot.   

(Side note.... my family in MN an WI would literally declare spring if they could sustain a temperature in the 20s)    

Who knows how this will settle out... all I am saying is that the 00Z ECMWF is still dry across the region on Saturday morning and way too warm for snow by Sunday with strong SW flow.

It would be a quick event if that verifies.

December 1998 says not always.

Yeah... angle is everything.    People remember events like 2008 and apply it to every case.    But it does not work that way.   Many times I have seen SEA scour out without putting up any fight at all.   

That firmly entrenched of an arctic air mass models like always are going to be too quick to erode and moderate us. Every single time.

Not with SW flow.    SEA scours out fast.    We need offshore flow for those long duration transition events.    The 00Z ECMWF shows broad SW flow and warmer air flooding in... nothing to hold it in place.   The 2008 event had wicked offshore flow.    This is different.

We all know that never happens.

Maybe not for the Hood Canal... but southerly winds in that set-up will scour SEA quickly.     

My location as well.    

Would be maybe 6 hours of possible snow Saturday afternoon on that run.      There would be nothing left Sunday with the flow being SW and not offshore.

Details finally out on the 00Z ECMWF on the Wundermap site.

Still dry on Saturday morning... cold air being eroded by southerly winds.

Probably a quick transition event and then a mild, rainy Sunday.       

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Geopotential%20500%20hPa%20and%20Temperature%20at%20850%20hPa!216!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2014020100!!chart.gif

00Z ECMWF also erodes the cold air quickly next weekend.

Its all over by Saturday afternoon.    

Still totally sunny all over on Friday per the 00Z ECMWF... when the GFS shows snow over WA.

By Thursday morning on the 00Z ECMWF... the coldest air is over Oregon.

Also... its much drier on Monday morning. But there are snow showers around Monday afternoon and even Tuesday.

Doing a comparison of the current 00Z ECMWF with the 12Z run and the 00Z run from last night.

The current run is quite a bit colder at 102 hours.     

Thanks, like I said its not like I made this up, or even believe it necessarily. But the GFSx does differ from the meteo star output.

The GFS MOS is quite reliable... if the 00Z operational GFS verified perfectly then it would be really close.    

Your wrong, it would indeed. Massive blizzard if this verifies

 

http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_192_0000.gif

I was guessing based on 144 hours... that adds some weight to the GFS solution.

Do you have the 850mb temp at that time??

The 00z GFS is playing with fire. Sure if such and such low miraculously tracked further south we'd all get snow, but that never happens.

 

Keep us cold and dry for longer then hopefully see a more traditional overrunning event later on.

I am sure our biggest snow events in history were playing with fire.  

Ice storm anyone?

No thanks.    

I agree... I would prefer the Canadian run. 

I probably should shut down the forums then, I wouldn't want people to get emotionally wrapped up for some 41F and rain. Thanks Tim!

Where did you read that??

The Canadian likely keeps us in the cold longer... but would not have the massive overrunning event next weekend.

The Canadian would likely lead to a totally different scenario next weekend... with the undercut happening much farther south if at all.