TT-SEA

28 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Tomorrow's gonna be wild. More akin to what you would see east of the Rockies. Not so sure I've ever seen such a quick pattern progression outside of the summer.

6am: Upper 30s and calm after a clear night. Warmer on the hilltops exposed to east winds, but in the usual sheltered cold spots it should decouple fine.

Noon: Low-mid 70s and increasingly breezy out of the east. Main ridge axis overhead. Some filtered sunshine, with fast moving high clouds. It'll be a beautiful morning.

6pm: 50s with increasing rain as a cold front absolutely violates the westside. Some pockets of heavier showers embedded given the warm air ahead of the front. Crazy crash.

Midnight: Mid 40s and showery. Not even twelve hours after the main ridge axis passes over does the main axis of our trough glide through. Already starting to warm again above 700mb.

Not sure there will be much rain in Seattle... maybe none.

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Looks like I can post again!  My account got messed up big time for some reason.

Welcome back!  

We just thought you were on warm season hiatus.  

12Z ECMWF is quite a bit drier than its 00Z run.  

9 minutes ago, Phil said:

Just below the cloud deck here driving thru Hancock.

That is not in the mountains... only at 564 ft in elevation.    The leaf out there is behind here which is surprising because I think its been much warmer there.   But it looks like that is quite a bit north of DC so maybe not as warm.  

2 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

It delays the rain a couple hours behind the GFS. Still drops to 48 by 8pm, so still an impressive crash.

Yeah... its going to be quite a change from early afternoon to evening.    Pretty unusual.  

ECMWF also shows Sunday being fairly sunny and around 60 at SEA so not a bad day after the crash.

And then mostly sunny on Monday as well.  

Just now, bainbridgekid said:

GFS shows one of the most impressive daytime temp crashes I've ever seen tomorrow. From 70 at 2pm to 49 at 5pm in Everett.

 

ECMWF shows 71 to 58 at SEA between 2 p.m. and 5 p.m.

25 minutes ago, ChrisEl Elyon said:

Interesting View from Eric Snodgrass 

https://youtu.be/UjOA_iTnfP0?feature=shared

He says drier in the West but that is not a problem because that area needs to dry out a bit.   

Hello Friday... going to be a spectacular day.

48 minutes ago, Phil said:

Huh? No I wasn’t. Unless it was an in-jest comment about a single long range model run.  

It was just one comment and not exactly long range... it was a week out.   Just to troll us.   

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Has to be tough seeing a Nina coming. 

Yes... Nina summers have been so horrible lately.  And Nina winters are often as good if not better than Ninos.   Doesn't seem to matter much.   

12 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

they're smarter than you, don't take it personally

I hope so!  

North wind has been gusting to 30 mph at SEA this afternoon.    Almost no wind out here... North Bend got up to 68.   The difference in what this afternoon felt like between SEA and NB had to be pretty significant.   68 with almost no wind feels quite warm.   64 with a north wind gusting to 30 mph likely feels quite chilly.    Being blocked from the north wind out here is really nice because that is predominant direction on our really nice days.  

Not sure what NOAA is seeing... 

Man it's gorgeous out.   Piercing blue sky and pleasant temp.   Perfect April weather.

A week ago Phil was talking about this period being a Jesse-tastic pattern.    Turns out it's a pattern almost everyone loves.

12Z EPS is not even wetter than normal over the next 15 days.

12Z ECMWF shows only .47 in Seattle and .28 in Portland over next 10 days.   Not exactly crazy wet.

14 minutes ago, Phil said:

The first 5 days are dry but the faucet of life turns on week-2.

If the pattern evolved exactly as modeled, it actually might “solve” a lot (esp extrapolating that pattern forward). Doesn’t mean it will verify but it’s one of the possibilities.

ECMWF looks somewhat similar but not real wet.   Looks like we won't be missing any warm, sunny weather while we are gone.    Need it to be stormy starting next Wednesday!

1 minute ago, Phil said:

The 12z CMC would put any drought worries to bed.

Yes... this would solve everything. 

Just now, Phil said:

Shouldn’t you be sipping martinis on the beach right now?  

Next week.

57 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

A lot of good can happen in May/June, we could be building the snowpack rather than melting it, and that would make a huge posotive difference on the snowpack.

True.

49 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Dry, exacerbate the drought, YAY!

If its any consolation... the "drought" prone areas are generally related to mountain snow and its really hard to make up mountain snow deficits in May regardless of the pattern.

10 hours ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

I hear you.  Irrational?  Yes, but I'm in the same boat and feel the same irrational fear.  I need to fly to South Carolina to see my mom.  I need to fly Alaska so I can use miles for the ticket but they are "proudly all Boeing" once again, and I'll inevitably be on a -900 or -900ER.  Chances of something happening are somewhere between slim and none, leaning heavily towards none, but I would really love to do that flight on an Airbus.

 

Another irrational fear situation that ended up setting off serious alarm bells in my head.  I was on a flight about 2-3 or so years after 9/11 and am almost certain I was on a "test" flight for a certain terrorist organization.    My wife picked up on it too, and we discussed what we would do.  Flight Attendants were switched on too, and I could tell they were giving those guys extra attention.  A lot of non-verbal communication between the crew when it came to these guys.  They tried to congregate in the fwd and aft galley areas a couple of times and were quickly sent back to their seats. 

 

Pretty much zero chance they were going to do anything, but I was not going to take any chances.

It was kind of chilling to be having in a meeting a month or so later with our Sales VP, and hear him share similar stories of what I saw through his conversations with Airline executives.  Then a few months later I got pulled into a meeting at work to learn about a few other things they were doing to get a 9/11 v2.0.  We were being approached to develop "countermeasures" for the things they were trying.

 

Doing the same thing next week flying to Charleston with only one real option from SEA.   Tried to put it out of my mind but you just increased my anxiety again.  

10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

June 2022 was extremely wet through the first three weeks of.the month though. 

For the first 20 days of June 2022 there was only one day here without rain and only 2 days at SEA with 0.00 for the day.   But for the first 10 days of the month it was a warm, humid rain.     

Then it only rained on 5 days from June 20 - October 20.  

06Z GFS was not so emphatic about a major pattern change... looks more variable like we have been seeing lately.   

EPS also looks variable and seems to be shifting the focus more to the south with the troughing next week.   I am sure there will be some rain events over the next couple of weeks though.