GHweatherChris

Seattle

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Seattle_USA_ens.png

Looking good, and 2 members showing some precip around the 6th/7th timeframe.

Ooooohhhh

 

Should I break out the Yak Trax, snow shovel, ice melter and take out a second mortgage to go stock up @ Costco with s**t I dont need?

You should have already done those things,  you don't wanna get caught with your pants down on this one!!

Hate to see the 18z water down the cold. I figured we'd have a run like that today.

Yep it was inevitable for us to see a run like that.  The good thing is though, it really wasn't that bad.  At least it didn't take away the cold completely, although I bet we see a run that does that by tomorrow night, we usually do.

Hopefully some moisture starts showing in the models soon, I would hate to waste this chance.

Ensembles are okay, but not outstanding. Mean is very similar to the operational except for February 8-10 where the operational gets pretty cold for a short while and the mean warms a few degrees.

 

1-20-14model.png

But there is some moisture show on some ensembles when its cold.

Last 90 days:

 

http://s15.postimg.org/v81h3c7vf/anomimage.gif

Are you trying to break the single day posting record by one person?

Well I am sure most meteorologists have more experience than you, especially considering your what, 28-34 in age. I really haven't been able to pinpoint your age, just guessing based on some posts you have made.

Hell I am pretty sure Richard is not a meteorologist but he has done better that anyone I have seen the last few years predicting cold weather intruding the PNW/west coast.  Including you with your physics or whatever it is you do.

I suspect most meteorologists with heavy physics-based backgrounds will reiterate my position. The forcings/dynamics that modulate the climate system are not random..neither is the system's response (which will vary).

 

That doesn't mean we understand the whys and hows..otherwise predictions would be a snap.

Well I am sure most meteorologists have more experience than you, especially considering your what, 28-34 in age. I really haven't been able to pinpoint your age, just guessing based on some posts you have made.

I think the idea that we're "due" for a given regime is baloney. There is nothing random about the climate system, so why treat it like it is?

You would be one of a very select few professioniall/amateur that thinks this.

Hell, even Tim would agree that we are due for something, if he wasn't spending so much time and bandwidth to bringing Jim down.

I have a sneaky suspicion this upcoming possible weather event next month will be just like an event in February 2014.  Just a gut feeling.

Ummm guys, its raining here right now, no Joke!!  This is news.  LOL

Its starting to rain here, !!

Looked at the details from the GFS output... next week is clear and cold.

 

But without clouds or snow on the ground the results might not be what people are expecting.

 

In February of 2006... with an 850mb temp of -15C at SEA the days were sunny and breezy with highs mostly in the low 40s and lows in the 20s.    I remember it well.    We actually went to the top of the Space Needle on one of those days and it was crystal clear but it actually did not feel that cold during the day.

 

We need this thing to evolve into a wetter solution or there is going to be some frustrated people particularly in WA even with 850mb temps down to -15C.    

 

Time will tell.   I am sure Jim will say its guaranteed we will go into this with lots of snow on the ground.   But that is not the case.   Far from a guarantee.    The December event was largely forgettable up here while epic in OR.    

 

February is quite different than December when looking at tangible effects on the ground.   Its more like late October or very early November.    

 

The happiness with this event is going to be 100% tied to the amount of snow it can deliver.     You can't sled or play in cold stats.   

Exactly.

If we do not get any somewhat good snow accumulation out of this(if it even happens), then I will not be impressed at all.

Amazing!

 

Posting this image for Jim when he gets on here later today... his location is under that small patch of fog in southern King County that somehow can't get blown out by the dry air and easterly flow all around there.

 

http://s29.postimg.org/oyagrcngn/jan91.gif

 

Issaquah also has that problem at times... but not today.

 

http://s3.postimg.org/vkcjztopf/ISSGR_l.jpg

 

Here is Covington:

http://s29.postimg.org/kpjzds5af/516vc01152.jpg

 

 

And a couple miles away up the road in Maple Valley:

 

http://s10.postimg.org/udpz1o755/018vc01683.jpg

 

 

Microclimate craziness today!   

Your infatuation with Jim is disturbing.

And on Super Bowl Sunday.

 

Brennan might drop dead from sensory overload.   

That would be awesome, possible snowstorm on the biggest day in Seattle sports history since 1979.

Who knew frozen water falling from the sky could stir such emotion from the depths of our souls..haha.

 

What differentiates a warm day from a cold day is simply the vibration of the gas molecules surrounding us.

 

So let's think about what we're really fretting over

Why do you bother contributing to this when you apparently live at the arctic multiple times a winter.  It is like a slap in the face.

It would be so easy for me to be breezy about winter weather with other regions if I lived where you do. 

Which is fine by me! I don't need close to single digit temps once again, just a snowier pattern

Amen!!

If that arctic air mass deviates from model projection slightly just 3,000 miles to the west we might be onto something!

It will.

HR 192 *Makes a puke face*

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_npac_192_500_vort_ht_l.gif

Still yuck, however, unless we are seeing some snow and cold I will gladly take a ridge this time of year, as it makes my job that much easier to handle.

There, so you go from Newbie to Member after you make your 10th post, got it. 

I thought that the other day, but had nothing to say then LOL.

Yeah, I agree with all of this. I will say this new site is really nice, and I find the server to be very fast. Nice job, iFred.

I agree that response time, and fast updates of new posts is phenomenal, but the whole this is the new thing and good bye to Western just like that is weird.

I am thinking February 10th to 20th is the time to watch, maybe a small warning shot at the end of January.

00z GFS ....

Endless ridging? Split flow? Pineapple Express? Occasional Rain? Arctic Blast(s)? Snow? Rampant and unprovoked Sasquatch attack?

 

HR 168 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_npac_168_500_vort_ht_l.gif

Yuck.

To lament what Jesse has said on the old board.  But, this transition is quite sudden and a little weird. 

I am all for it, but the way it happened was very strange.  It turned into an all or nothing kind of situation very fast, with minimal warning.

I was referring to the post above me made by DJ Droppin on the 12Z Euro at the end of the run. The cold air pool skims by. I don't even know how you can think it was in response to Brennan.

 

I think an apology is in order.

Thank you very much!! I was not even responding to Brennan and I still get treated poorly. The bullying by some posters is really getting out of hand.

WOW.  Just WOW.