GHweatherChris

Definitely watching this....

Mostly snow here now, but, precip rates are too light to do much with so far, radar is a tad deceiving currently. 

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

My God man this might be a doozy.

The potential is there for sure.

Down to 35, transition showing some teeth, next hour or so will be critical.

5 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

WRF hammers Kitsap

 

And here.....

20 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Obviously the GFS is on crack in the ridiculous amounts of snow it's showing for some places.  For example it shows Hoquiam will have 5.2 inches two hours from now.  That having been said I still think that area and west of Puget Sound will do pretty well.

I'm thinking T to 1 inch for east of Puget Sound.

No it doesn't, it pretty much shows a changover over in 2 hours from now realistically. 

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Snowing at cosmopoliss hill south of Chris 

Yep its almost here!!

Just now, snow_wizard said:

I see the problem the Kitsap Pen is having.  Most of the east wind that is blasting through King County is getting shunted south of there.  I hadn't thought about that.

It can't be a problem right now, nothing is supposed to switch completely over anywhere for another couple hours.  Things are tracking right on cue so far, give or take.

Moisture is definitely not gonna be the issue tonight, things should start cooling dramatically as the low itself starts to spin up more.

Just now, KingstonWX said:

Just dropped below 40 here. Maybe this thing has a chance.

I will say, some people forget the models tell us what falls, not what sticks, and it's february. 

That bolded part sir is not necessary, never any reason to downplay an already touchy event.  Let it ride!!!

Splats increasing!!

Getting better....

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That winter was beyond frustrating for me.  Just a few miles from here they got buried and we had many days of minor slush accumulations.

If my notes are correct, 2007-08 I ended up with 25-30" of snow for the winter across multiple 3-4" events, 12/2008 was still the biggest event for me in my lifetime but 07-08 was a great one.

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I definitely remember Snowmizer scoring a lot in 2007-08 in particular.

I think I lurked that winter, then joined leading up to 12/2008, him and I used to score in marginal set ups so much in the past it was crazy.

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

2007-08 was epic for both of you iirc. More marginal for many other spots in the lowlands.

Ya, that was a fun winter, tons of 3-4" surprise snowfalls here that I called the NWS about when they happened.  

Edit- I also was not a part of this forum in 2007-08 winter, but if I remember correctly 2010-11 was very similiar.

11 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

What is temp there?

37 and positive splats, its coming!!!

20 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I'm going with a 50% chance of a complete bust even here. If it does work out it would about be the most impressive cooling event I can remember. 

This type of setup used to happen alot for you and I no more than 10-15 years ago, the lost art form is trying to make a comeback!

Looking at about a 9 PM switchover out this way, 10 at the latest if it is going to happen.

5 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Yeah I was going to say…it’s still pretty early. I do get snowmizers point about past events compared to this. It’s quite an evaporative cooling event if it does happen. You and him should be totally fine this evening…but I’m still not sure about here even with the euro showing over 1”

Ya, it's definitely not a slam dunk situation but it is more ideal than at any other point this winter at least out this way.

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Umm

Upper levels definitely cooling, things don't look to transition to snow for at least a few hours per models.

Definitely no virga, 38 and raining currently, well on the way to nada -  9 inches!!

9 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

How does Chehalis do for snow? My wife is trying to convince me to move down there for acreage over the next couple years but idk man its so quiet. 

I have no idea, I don't live anywhere near Chehalis.

I would not be surprised to get up to 4 inches here, really a best case scenario and perfect set up for the Chehalis Gap.

On 2/8/2024 at 5:49 PM, Rubus Leucodermis said: