Heavy Snow

It's been one heck of a ride PDX Metro but I knew this time would eventually come. From February 2014 when those 3 lows magically tracked where we wanted and got 3 separate snowstorms, to the January 2016 event where we somehow got snow/ice in that fake cold setup when nobody else did, to this past December where we have had 2 snow/ice events, it was time for us to get the bad end of the stick. This is just a way of Mother Nature balancing itself out. I'm not upset about it because I've been extremely lucky the past few winters with how things have went. Sure it would have been good to finally get the January off our backs but maybe it still will because January just started. It is what it is. Still hopeful that we get a nice transition event this weekend.

Ullr

I might have to settle for a little snow and then freezing rain. It's better than nothing.

I just want enough snow to go sledding for a few hours. That shouldn't be too much to ask for.

The east wind is gobbling up all the moisture so I likely won't get anything. I was hoping it at least get a dusting. Next chance midweek but I'm in a bad spot near the Gorge with the light precip even if it makes it up here. Best chance looks to be this weekend.

Portland just had its wettest December ever in 2015 and wettest October ever 2 months ago in 100 years. It's only going to get worse. Right now its the worst it's ever been. "China starts 2017 engulfed in smog, issues pollution alerts With air particulate levels well above WHO recommended levels, flights cancelled, highways closed" http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/technology/china-new-year-smog-1.3918388

"China's air pollution could be intensifying storms over the Pacific Ocean and altering weather patterns in North America, according to scientists in the US. A team from Texas, California and Washington state has found that pollution from Asia, much of it arising in China, is leading to more intense cyclones, increased precipitation and more warm air in the mid-Pacific moving towards the north pole." https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/15/china-air-pollution-pacific-climate-us-national-academy-sciences

Same again at day 10 ****!

Yeah, it initially gives some snow but then a surge of south winds comes as the L heads north. Quick transition.

I'm going to go into this Arctic Blast with no snow cover. First chance for some snow will be mid-week but due to my location near the Gorge and the light precip, the cold east winds will probably gobble up all the moisture. Then we look into this weekend and that's the best shot again with the EURO showing a system approaching from the SW. However if that doesn't happen and instead the trough from the NW digs offshore, it will send south winds up the Valley and it will be a brief wintry mix if I'm lucky before the cold rain or it will just be cold rain. There's a decent chance I see no snow.

It looks like it's a big possibility. Going to be hard scouring out all that low level cold air without a messy transition. It looks like he's going with the EURO solution now with the system not coming until the weekend.

For anybody not getting any snow today, the 18z NAM wants to send a system up here on Wednesday. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam/2017010118/078/refcmp_ptype.us_nw.png

Nothing so far here in Gresham at 500 feet. Had some snow showers but nothing sticking.

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/P1_GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/PNM_panel.gif

We will see what happens.

I'm factoring in what jaya said. The EURO has a chance to warm us up before any precip arrives.

Seriously Andrew, I told you before, I don't post or talk about weather on any other forum. Your obsessed that I'm somebody else. I only talk about weather here. If your basing my post that I'm some guy named Yev on another forum than you're wrong.

Yes, ensemble average send system into California so we remain colder but drier. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/eps/2017010100/072/sfcmslp.conus.png http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/eps/2017010100/072/850t.conus.png http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/eps/2017010100/096/850t.conus.pnghttp://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/eps/2017010100/120/850t.conus.png

Good news, 06z NAM trending northward and a little stronger with the midweek system than the 00z NAM.

I just looked at the initial 00z EURO ensemble members and they don't look good as as the majority of them send the midweek system into Northern California. If you live in Medford/Klamath Falls/Roseburg/Eugene/Bend you have better chances to score. Still a long ways out and will hope for the usual northward trend.

The 00z GFS ensemble members are all over the place at hour 84 and 96. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017010100/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_wus_15.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2017010100/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_wus_17.png

Happy New Year! Snow God Ullr, please give me lots of snow next week! http://spiritofred.ca/wp-content/uploads/ullr4.jpg

Nice! Happy New Year! Everybody will be staying up for the 06z GFS, biggest run ever.