MossMan

Why do some people never use question marks

?

I spent some time this morning looking back at the Jan 2012 event and it was pretty evident that the models really struggled with that one, almost up until the event was on us. This was my end result...repeat?

I think most of us know that we are at a disadavantage from the start winter wise with +PDO/+ENSO/Solar. Like 2009/2010, snow was hard to come by here...even though we had a couple cold shots earlier that winter season. Im still interested to see where things go this winter but am not surprised at how things have gone thus far. My question is what may happen next year? Will solar drop off? Will the North Pacific remain warm near NA? Will ENSO fall back to neutral?

It is crazy to think that I have had more snow than your area has had. 2.5"! Has been pretty meager over there.

Looking forward to the 12's this morning!!

 

As for the current weather, 43 degrees with light rain at my house. Looking forward to an active weekend!

I actually agree with you, I feel that if we see nothing significant by Jan. 20th, then we may just have to wait til spring and hope for the yearly post frontal snow showers.

You can always count on March!

How the map was drawn is sort of irrelevant... just looking at the big picture. I would rather have the ECMWF weeklies showing cold in the West and go from there.

Has it been accurate much this fall? Seems to me it changes a lot.

Looks like the latest PNA Forecast is continuing its march into negative territory right before the New Year.

Message is that the ECMWF does not show cold air in the West though mid-January.

Personally I'm not putting much stock in that, all the models including the Euro have been struggling lately. I could probably have my 9mo old daughter scribble something on a map and it would probably have an equal chance of verifying.

For claiming our winter is over in 3 weeks by the middle of January... the new ECMWF weeklies are not good news. Could be one of those Ninos where all the good stuff came WAY early. I think it might be time for me to starting to look forward to spring.

 

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/alertengine/2014/590x458_12191324_dec19a.png

 

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/alertengine/2014/590x458_12191325_dec19b.png

 

http://vortex.accuweather.com/adc2004/pub/includes/columns/alertengine/2014/590x458_12191327_dec19c.png

I just cannot take a map seriously that was colored in with Crayola Crayons.

If you want cold enough for snow, you don't need the coldest of the cold. If you want the white stuff (here in NW WA anyway) you need the ridge in the right place, moisture, baroclinicity (which means warm to the south - with the warm air making you nervous and some people missing out), a good low going in to the south to keep flow offshore and evaporative cooling going, etc. I have seen some very good snows with air that looked quite marginal (it was just cold enough).

 

Of course, I'm talking snow and not extreme cold - so maybe we are talking different subjects.

 

Merry Christmas!

Would November 1996 and also November 2006 be a good example of what you are describing? In both instances I did extremely well in the snow department and I don't think the airmass was bitter cold, just cold enough for a lot of fun!!

We should be encouraged by this run.... It's much better and close to being superb....

 

Onto 00z ECMWF in 1 hour 9 minutes

When does the Canadian run again?

HR 192  Just back that ridge 5 degrees and it's $ ..... Still a hell of a lot better than many other operational runs the past day or so

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_npac_192_500_vort_ht_l.gif

Yes!! Perhaps the models are beginning to swing back in our favor?

I am currently sitting in my truck in my driveway not wanting to get out because my daughter is snoring in her car seat and I don't want to wake her up, all my dogs are howling in unison since they know I am home but they don't understand why I am not coming in. Sounds like a pack of wolves in there. Not weather related at all, just finding it humorous. I did have a very heavy shower pass over the house about an hour ago, and it sounds like it will be a very active weekend!! Hopefully the models will start looking better this weekend!!

That is not really tanking.

No but it's heading downward into the minus before the new year. I have been watching this daily and today is the first day it has shown this for the most part.

Good afternoon, just looked at the new 12z models and they look good. The GEM and GFS look great. The EURO operational not so much but the ensembles look good. At hour 240 YVR is around +1C 850 hPa Air Temperature on the operational. Now look at the ensemble mean, YVR is very close to -8C! A spread of close to 9C is huge. This tells us that the operational is a huge warm outlier.

 

http://download.ecmwf.org/data/web248/get_legacy_plot-web248-20141219202649-22633-0379.gif

Good to hear the ensembles look more favorable! Guess I won't give up just yet!

mountain snow would be great.

Anything other than the current pattern would be great!!

Well if the 12's are crappy as well, I guess all we will have to look forward to is Sunday Night Football, and Christmas. Guess it will give me more time to wrap gifts if I am not checking the forum every 10 minutes.

The 6z must have stunk? this kind of reminds me how the models struggled before the Jan 2012 event. Wish I had time to look back and see.

Imo this has the most potential for widespread heavy snow since 2008.

That just gives me chills...and a instant flashback to wading through 30+ inches of snow. Starting to drool as I type!

I just can't quite get the thought out of my mind that the top cold waves to ever strike the PNW occurred after a massive AR Event.....

I know Tim doesn't like to hear this, but I agree with you. 1990 really comes to mind among many others.

The ensembles show a high percentage of tech people.

I am an outlier, my job is not even close to being techy...but I do have an office, desk, a computer, and a view of I-5 so on the days that I am not on the road, I find myself popping over to the forum quite often!

My god...I have been on the road for work today,  just got back and spent the last 20 min going from a high of the 6z to a low of the 12z's, and now a high again with the 18z. Think I need to get on some Prozac after the last 20 minutes of forum reading!

Crap...now I have to stay up for the Euro. Go European!

Sorry, but I had too....

 

Abbi on the left is 4lb 6oz, Lexi on the right is 6lb 2oz.

 

Awesome!!! You are going to be just a tad busy!!

 

MT8_Vancouver_Kanada_ens.png

Looks a tad chaotic! Models still trying to figure out this complex situation.