MossMan

My gut feeling which is nothing at all scientific is we are about to go though a major pattern shakeup and the models are having a very very tough time with it. Were will the Kona Low set up...the million dollar question.

Yes the 6z was an epic suck run! Total winter cancel run. Everything .. I mean everything slides east as we have arctic air just across our border. Honestly a very typical and normal pattern for us PNWesterners.

I wonder if it's the built in warm bias trying hard to make sure the cold air doesn't cross the border?

I take it the 6z was not special? 40 degrees and slight drizzle here as well.

Been up since 3:30am for work, and because of the Euro I am still awake!

Euro hints at snow risk mainly Seattle northward on Christmas Eve...then clearing and cold Christmas Day region-wide. Gorge gets going late on Christmas or day after. I don't think it would be much of a snow producer for PDX as modeled.

That would work for me!

 

It's crazy to even think we are tracking cold air and again the possibility of snow for a 3rd time this fall!! So awesome! Like Tim mentioned earlier, this could be a case where the models once again lock in on a colder and possible longer duration event as we get closer, like last time!

Even though it didn't amount to much, it snowed pretty much the entire time I was in eastern wa today. From just west of the summit of Snoqualmie pass all the way to Moses Lake and back. That was nice to see anyway! I can't wait for the 0z's tonight... and the next 7 or so nights as well!!

Thought it needed livened up a bit in here.

Yeah the forum was lit up with excitement yesterday afternoon, then it just completely died when the 0z GFS came out last evening. Thanks for your analysis, that is awesome info!! 

Looks like a spectacular sunrise is in the works. Perfectly placed band of mid-level debris.

Yeah I noticed that as well!! The radio said its 50 degrees in Seattle, not sure if that is correct but it's 26 here in Arlington!

How did the 0z Euro look? 6z GFS? Or is everyone waiting on the 12z's?

Currently 28 degrees and frosty!

How many arctic intrusions have we ever had in one season?

Very nice.

 

I heard that it has been a good year for the tree farms. The past 5-6 years have been pretty bleak up here. A common scene after Christmas the last few years has been the tree farms pulling the mature trees they were unable to sell and burning them (Freshly pulled Christmas trees in the middle of winter actually don't burn, they just kind of smolder for weeks on end.). This year it doesn't look like that will be happening at least to that scope as the farmers have been telling me that business is brisk. Part of that is also that the glut of trees which were planted in the mid 2000s has now waned.

 

That is what I have heard as well, though talking to the owner of the tree farm that we go to, it has been very slow for his place this year. He is up in Silvana Heights on an amazing 5 acres overlooking the valley of Stanwood and the Stillaguamish river below. Sounds like he might be selling in a few years, it's been in his family since the 50's. I have been going there with my family since I was my daughters age. Got me thinking...tree farm side business!!

A perfect morning to get the tree!

Looks a little different than the map Tim posted yesterday for Christmas Eve!

How is the 12z looking?

Dec 1995 windstorm Portland

Jan 2012 ice storm transformers blowing

http://youtu.be/XkN1Bt2MIYA

Mudslide on Queen Ann Hill December 1983

30 degrees and lots of frost this morning!

Nov 2006

http://youtu.be/lD-UA7d4r_Q

Another Jan 2012, "biggest snow storm in 25yrs"

http://youtu.be/ZR2gpKazV-Y

It cetainly behooves Les Schwab to forecast colder weather.

Got to get those blizzaks sold before the end of the year!

I'd say the fact that Downtown is so hilly makes Seattle even worse than Portland in that regard. Wide swaths of Portland are fairly flat, but nearly all of Seattle is pretty hilly.

True! Though who could forget this Portland Jem...

Just for accuaracy's sake, who all are saying specifically that a PNW Arctic outbreak is essentially an inevitability in the next 30 days?

 

Let's get this out on the table so everyone can see.

I'm all in!

The models look terrible for late 2019 into early 2020. Still time for it to turn around though.

 

Andrew will keep us posted. I think he is the new king of meaningless data.

Hopefully you have some stress free days coming up? We need you at 100% for when the arctic blast hits us on the 26th!!

We have cleared out nicely this afternoon after some heavy rain this morning. Temp at 44 and starting to drop, perhaps a freeze tonight?