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epiceast

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Everything posted by epiceast

  1. epiceast
    -15 vs -25. If you didn't have the snow cover, the cold air mass would have never made past the great divide into intermountain region like that.
  2. epiceast
    yes, but a relatively benign weak ridge would still produce -15 anomaly if there was a foot of snow over columbia basin at this point, because the area would still fake cold.
  3. epiceast
    around* seems like south and east has some healthy returns. If they persist until dark should see a nice 10*20 square mile area with a dusting.
  4. epiceast
    Deformer to dust some places around SEA and PDX tonight?
  5. epiceast
    Both are required for such an anomaly
  6. epiceast
    Might get ratio killed here tonight, despite temps only slightly above 0, maybe only 10-15:1 ratios for us in western montana and near wyoming border?
  7. epiceast
    Shows how rare it is to have snowy Columbia basin at that point.
  8. epiceast
    Find that very hard to believe. We had a couple breaks since the initial arctic front where it got above freezing in the sun. Hasn't rained since the day it all began though(actually rained quite high & hard that day, up to 7000' @ snowbowl, nearly entire mountain got a thick crust, so we got miserable skiing for two weeks because of how dry everything was for a while).
  9. epiceast
    Wow that's really bad. I don't like this February here I think it's already colder than January '17, but at least we don't have any highs below 0, and only had 3 windy days this month(Hellgate canyon starts acting like the gorge when there is warm nose being brought into idaho by low pressures). Also only a couple inches here since the start of this storm, but completely whiteout conditions today.
  10. epiceast
    There it is, the ratio driven snow!
  11. epiceast
    Everest College First right?
  12. epiceast
    It's surprising there were areas in the columbia basin that did not have solid snowcover a couple days ago. Constant lows sliding inland into Oregon, constant cold air reloads...
  13. epiceast
    Yeah WV is just a different climate than Seattle, a lot more "Mediterranean". Very hard to get 700mb temps that cold NW flow aloft in Dec-Jan when most snow events are possible. I read somewhere that coldest 850mb temps on average happen in March for most PNW locations, I'm guessing it's the same deal for layers above that too which determine the initial SWE.
  14. epiceast
    Unfortunately this going for south means not much snowfall at 15:1 to ratio, seems like 8:1 will be the rule so really wet 3" for most. I bet Portland and SW Washignton(especially Kelso and north) would have turned this storm into a couple feet of snow in some places with colder air in place to support the cold 700mb temps
  15. epiceast
    Just looked at WRF progression again, seems like there is not much time to really cool down all levels so yeah it will be a wet snow event for people below 1000' in WV, the precip shield doesn't leave for very long tonight.
  16. epiceast
    Can we get some Kuchera maps here? I'm seeing that -700mb temps cool of quickly to -15C 50 miles north of the low, so we could have 15:1 or even 20:1 ratios in places that stay below freezing at the surface(up against the coast range?). NWS seems to think all snow will be marginal above 32 in central valley, but I am not sure if they are right...
  17. epiceast
    Salem special(for all snow), maybe more snow somewhere further south but with rain mixed in.
  18. epiceast
    I think this is the second time models trended a snowstorm this far south in a decade. Last one caused a lot of unhappy SEA CWA posters, but turned out alright for PDX.
  19. epiceast
    Good WRF run for Missoula this morning, but southerly trend made NWS reduce the totals, I think WRF/mm5 nam are on their own with the low reforming over Wallowa mountains after making the southern landfall. edit: Looked at the two runs again, seems like we just got a lot stronger low on 12z, 1310m heights @ 850mb levels.
  20. epiceast
    Yea lets stop hand-waving his age away, lots of regulars started posting here before 18, we definitely weren't as bad.
  21. epiceast
    Green grass on the Median is not representative... If you can find some on an open lawn at least 50 by 50 feet then maybe. Looks like still a widespread 3-6" left that was very wind affected when it fell based on the right part of the pictures.
  22. epiceast
    Double deformation band is not a normal setup... But it would be nice to see a wet heavy high qpf snow band hit PDX and than a quarter inch half a foot snowstorm in SEA from the same system
  23. epiceast
    Oh man can't wait for next frame, it's gonna be a good one for PDX
  24. epiceast
    Well they slid down the coast because there was strong blocking in place, this time it gets undercut instead following the weak spots of the ridge south.
  25. epiceast
    I think our problem in February was that storms always died before they got to here. At least this one shouldn't die before continental divide because the ridge/high pressure block is a bit weaker and gets undercut so I think it makes it to at least continental Divide. Not sure about Central/Eastern Montana.
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