Phil

That was a memorable 10 day run in late September, though.

 

#neverforget

All good signs for winter, though. Need that +PNA/flat ridge as strong as possible now to score in January.

PDO is really spiking. Almost back to where it was in Spring.

Daily values are over +2 now.

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2016-11/5DE6F974-96F1-4E8E-8D43-2EAFAD87084B_zpsx3qgtxmj.jpg

Hey Phil, check your pm's once in awhile !

 

Still gorgeous here. 70's, clear. Wishing for rain.

My apologies. I've been swamped with work lately.

Made it down to 26.2 this morning. Growing season is definitely finished now.

Currently 59.6/18. Haven't seen a dewpoint in the teens since last March I think.

Those NPAC SSTAs are tanking. Should see a spike in the November PDO.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

FWIW, here'a 1996/97. Started out with the weak PV but strengthened to record breaking levels later in the winter/into the spring.

That was a -QBO winter w/ a developing Niño cell, though, so perhaps the progression is different this go around.

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2016-11/CCEDCE5D-0E44-4C82-94BD-6E965B266FB5_zpsoqeayz1g.jpg

I've also seen 1953 and 1954 a lot.

Yeah, though one of those was a Niño and both lacked strong autumnal polar blocking. We're pretty far removed from the 1950s boundary state.

Boom.

Haven't seen the PV start out this pathetically since at least 1996/97.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/hattard/realtime/u_65N_10hpa.png

Interesting analogs to tonight's 0z GFS. Most of them are from years that eventually delivered cold weather to the NW. The analogs to the pattern projected at day 11 are all from 1981 or earlier. Seeing some old time patterns coming up?

Interesting to note that 1960s and 1980s years have made up close to 70% of the listed analogs since September. Though the CPC list only goes up to 2009.

The 0z is getting pretty blocky and chilly later in the run. Absolutely no GOA / Aleutian low during that time.

Finally some (modified) polar air seeps into North America. That's a start!

The anomalies across the entire North Pacific. There are elements of +PDO, and elements of -PDO. I don't think it's just everything shifted north.

You don't think shifting that SSTA profile southward by approximately 10 degrees would result in a strong +PDO reading? What are you seeing that I'm missing?

I could run the numbers myself, I guess.

An extremely powerful cold front and microburst struck here last winter, on February 24th. A few areas experienced gusts at/above 80-100mph within "burst swaths".

I ran into the basement upon hearing the huge roar in the distance, so I didn't catch the worst of it. Wimp.

Post-frontal snow squall last winter. Dropped a quick 1/2" within 10 minutes. Winds were 30-40mph during the squall, but increased to 40-55mph after the squall.

Arrival of a pre-frontal snow squall last winter. Came in on 40mph winds, lasted only about 10 minutes.

Agree to disagree.

Based on? Just curious.

Have you looked at the sigma-aggregated streamfunction anomalies over the NPAC, through last several months? Looks very straightforward to my eyes..the climatological Hadley/Ferrel complex is shifted poleward and U-wind anomalies clearly resemble a +PDO circulation.

But the Arctic absolutely roasting. Where is the cold coming from?!?

The climate system is rigged!

Parts of central and southern Siberia (45-55N) have now observed colder lower tropospheric temperatures than anywhere above 65N (so far) in 2016, except Greenland. Goes to show what happens when mobile polar wave production is high.

It's a mixed signature, but not strong +PDO. Too much warm water NW of Hawaii.

It's technically a strong +PDO signature, however the entire circulatory network has been shifted poleward with the expansion of the Hadley Cells, hence the PDO signature is also shifted poleward.

So, while technically it doesn't read as a strong +PDO on the indices, it is exactly that.

Verbatim, there's not much EPO help on the JMA, however, the persistent -NAO saves the day by preventing the development of that Hudson Bay vortex we've become accustomed to in recent years.

DECEMBER

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2016-11/431B86C8-DC13-4EAA-914C-E0C6BFA12B7D_zpsluygusxz.jpg

JANUARY

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2016-11/10C22BB5-8594-4101-B8E9-CDFE9380CEC7_zpsxkc3oakq.jpg

FEBRUARY

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2016-11/8F057B4A-10D3-4FF7-B14E-C6C83BD8BB3F_zpsane1v8mw.jpg

New JMA monthlies just came in and look amazing, almost like Jim drew the maps himself.

Huge -PNA/-NAO, with a piece of the decimated PV sitting right over WA/BC. Haha.

For the record, I'm not bailing on winter. I just think it's going to take awhile for the system to realign, and for this to happen, the Hadley Cells need to retract/tighten equatorward. There's just no way around that, IMO.

If/when this occurs, I'll start getting excited. As of now, I don't see any signs of this occurring over the next few weeks.

The multivariate MJO indicates rather Ninaish tendencies during week two. It is also worth noting the OLR 5N to 5S 160W to 160E has been solidly positive (Ninaish) for some time now. In the end I think we will have a solidly Ninaish atmosphere by mid December if not sooner.

The mid-latitudes aren't behaving as such on the metrics thanks to extremely broad Hadley Cells (again). In fact, the infamous 1997/98 is the #2 analog match for the August through October period. Think about that one for a minute.

For laughs, 1997/98 is also the top D11 analog on the CPC ensemble today.

Finally obtained our first sub-50 high of the season. Pathetically late, but it's progress at least.

Should drop into the mid/upper 20s tonight. Will probably kill off the remaining insects.

Holy crap @ the deep freeze ongoing in Eurasia. Just keeps getting more impressive with every model run.

Not with cold ENSO. People are going to really enjoy the next few years IMO.

This isn't a coherent Niña state, however. Standardized AAM is in strong niño territory right now.

It won't be long, it will progress, all will be well.

If the +EPO regime on the 06z GFS/GEFS verifies, we're gonna have to wait awhile longer. There's just no Arctic air anywhere close to North America right now.

It's been completely hosed out.