Phil

This should give Jim a nice moral quandary. Well done!

Your paranoia seems to worsen exponentially every year.

You've been making loads of erroneous assumptions about me recently, and it's becoming quite irritating. To start, I didn't even quote Jim, and I've provided a large quantity of research on the QBO/ENSO relationship over the last year or two. Flatiron has also expanded on some of the research I've presented, and he's generally better than me at explaining this stuff in a simplistic, straightforward manner, so you cannot claim to be unaware of these discussions, or confused as to their content. You're a fairly smart dude.

I think Phil's just trying to push your buttons.

Nope. The Niña/-QBO combo is notorious for failing to establish NPAC blocking. These years are usually zonal/+EPO dominated failures, with a few exceptions confined to the heart of solar minimums.

If next winter is a Niña, I don't think it'll be a good winter. Would almost certainly be a +EPO dominated Pacific hose-job, given the -QBO. A warmer ENSO/-QBO would actually favor stronger NPAC blocking.

History is strongly on my side. We just came out of a two year super Nino. No way what we're seeing now has made up for that.

I like ENSO-neutral next winter, assuming the QBO progresses as expected. I think a Niña is less likely.

So you are thinking no to an early December warning shot.

I think anything before December 10th is mostly a modeling tease, yeah. A few degrees cooler than average maybe? I'm watching for a significant EPO/AO tank starting around the Holidays, however.

They've both seen flakes already

Getting drunk on an inch of snow is such a PNW thing.

98/99 and 07/08 analogs popping up all over the place.

Uh, no..

I think there's a very good chance of significant Arctic blasts throughout this winter, Dec-Feb. Just a matter of who gets hit, much like 2013-14 and 2010-11.

Based on the observed, ongoing, and climatologically favored progressions of the tropical forcings, stratosphere, and interactive waveguides, I think the first window (for the western states) is from mid/late December to early January, followed by another window in February.

So we have to wait through ANOTHER major snowstorm before we get to an Arctic outbreak???

 

Fudgecicles!!!

Haha, it looks quite cold to me, just not historically noteworthy.

By historically noteworthy, I mean something like a western version of February 2015. Could be a dry blast if that's significant, I really don't know. Just pointing out the potential.

FWIW, I feel very strongly that as long as February doesn't flip into a +AO/+EPO, there will be a very significant Arctic event that month sometime. Don't want to get too far ahead of myself here, but I think there are a number of indicators that favor such a progression.

I guess what they're saying Phil is, not about next year, how do you like the present model solutions so far?

Modeling aside, I'm confident in a cooler than average December across the PNW, with an opportunity for a significant lowland snowstorm between December 20th and January 5th, followed by a period of ridging thereafter.

I don't see a significant Arctic blast until at least late January, as far as widespread cold is concerned, with February offering the best opportunity for some very cold air.

When Phil shows up and gives us hope, then I will know we are onto something.

I've always had hope. I'm just leaning towards something more backloaded overall, given the poor equator/pole synchronization that's manifested over the last 8+ weeks.

I do expect a mammoth EPO/AO plunge around the holidays and/or just afterward, with a corresponding Arctic shot over the nation. How that unfolds is still in question.

Waiting for Phil to come in and tell us it won't look good.

Energy spills too far offshore.

That's some purrrrrty blocking on the clown range GFS.

La la lock it up.

I made a general inference, not a prediction. The inference isn't just based on what we've been seeing the last few months, we have seen high latitude blocking and a weak polar jet several winters out of the last 5 or 6.

 

Good article by Dr Judah Cohen discussing a potential link between "Arctic amplification" (extreme Arctic warming) and increased mid-latitude pattern volatility and frequency of "extreme" events.

 

"The second proposed dynamical pathway linking Arctic amplification to increased weather extremes is through its effects on the behaviour of the polar jet stream. The difference in temperature between the Arctic and mid-latitudes is a fundamental driver of the polar jet stream; therefore, a reduced poleward temperature difference could result in a weaker zonal jet with larger meanders. A weaker and more meandering flow may cause weather systems to travel eastward more slowly and thus, all other things being equal, Arctic amplification could lead to more persistent weather patterns. Furthermore, Arctic amplification causes the thickness of atmospheric layers to increase more to the north, such that the peaks of atmospheric ridges may elongate northward and, thus, increase the north–south amplitude of the flow. Weather extremes frequently occur when atmospheric circulation patterns are persistent, which tends to occur with a strong meridional wind component." (p 5)

 

http://web.mit.edu/jlcohen/www/papers/Cohenetal_NGeo14.pdf

 

The jury is still out on what effect if any Arctic amplification is having on mid-latitude wintertime patterns, though it is certainly not the sole driver in any case...Overland (2015) provides an analysis of recent studies that suggest changes in the Arctic can impact some areas more than others...for example Eurasia versus eastern NA/western Europe.

 

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00822.1

 

 

It is very possible both mechanics (-NAM/weak stratospheric PV and effects of Arctic amplification) are playing a role in mid-latitude patterns this fall/early winter.

I think the cause/effect jury is still out. There seems to be plenty of literature on both sides of the isle regarding the nature/reason(s) of/for Arctic amplification, and if/how it may either impact and/or arise from changes in circulation.

http://www.tellusa.net/index.php/tellusa/article/view/25482

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/wcc.337/full

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2010GL044136/full

https://www.atm.helsinki.fi/peex/images/Workshop_proceedings_NERSC-Tech-report_290216-MASTER_ESAU.pdf#page=16

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2015GL065923/full

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0320.1

I'd say so far you're doing one heck of a job, and I hope that continues for our sake! now check your messenger lol

Haha, sorry man. Can't seem to get facebook notifications to show up on my new phone.

I knew you were dead on before. You shouldn't have gotten such cold feet about it that past several weeks. Other than that good job.

Thank you.

FWIW, my concerns were/are confined to November and early December. I never was nervous about the winter failing.

Minor timing issues aside, I like my winter idea, at least for the time being.

Finalizing my first set of winter analogs. Will post later tonight.

General theme is a blocky winter overall..A strong NPAC/EPO block develops in November/December as a dominant signal. During January, the NAO block becomes the dominant signal, before the NPAC/EPO becomes dominant again in February/March.

Strongest signal for Arctic air in the PNW is in February, with a decent look in November also.

November:http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/7C4B0E02-66D5-4171-9A8B-6AEB2B3282F1_zpsnjco8k7t.png

December: http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/668A1C0A-08C6-424D-ACD1-5A8D7FDA8E07_zpslz40fnek.png

January:http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/B3945546-46DC-4925-B13E-D09A228DE727_zpsvru6ulno.png

February:http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/8C9A2DC2-B386-4785-8203-CC4783FFA8D4_zpszifsleqr.png

March:http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/4547D03B-B668-4BA5-97C2-A0DA466D658D_zpsbkbj1jli.png

What stands out here is the flip in the NPAC pattern from October to November, and the polar blocking signal peaking in January.

I think the only supported conclusion(s) we can reach right now are:

1) Blocking is favored to develop over the NPAC by/during November.

2) Polar blocking (-NAM/-NAO et al) is favored to reach maximum strength during January.

3) While all months show potential for Arctic intrusion for Arctic intrusion into the PNW, the months of November/December and/or February look to hold the strongest signal, while January and March hold a less impressive signal.

4) We'll know by November if winter 2016-17 is following this historical guide, or whether the system goes a different route. If the winter fails, it will probably be due to a strong +EPO/Western-Arctic Vortex pattern.

Still kind of preliminary, but here's my general idea for this winter across North America.

- Covering a range of possibilities, the analogs I'm following most include 1942/43, 1959/60, 1961/62, 1980/81, 1983/84, 1985/86, 1995/96, 2008/09, 2010/11, and 2013/14.

- Overall, from Nov to Mar, I expect a -PNA/-EPO/+NAO look, with a neutral to slightly negative NAM/AO. However, I also anticipate a moderate to significant degree of "pattern variability", on a monthly and/or sub-monthly timescale. Could be frequent intraseasonal pattern changes, given a somewhat unstable background state.

- Overall, I expect normal to below normal temperatures from the Pacific Northwest, down to the Rockies, Northern/Central Plains, Midwest, Great Lakes, and upper New England/Northeast. I anticipate normal to above normal temperatures from the far Southwest, into the Southern Plains, Southeast, up into the coastal Mid Atlantic.

- I anticipate the coldest airmasses (relative to average) to center over the Northern and Central Plains, with much colder than average temperatures from MT, WY, and CO, across the Plains, into MN and IA. I anticipate the warmest airmasses (relative to average) to center over the Gulf and Southeast states.

- I anticipate an early-season Arctic blast into the US during November, following a period of upstream wave breaking as the strengthening PV fights increasing poleward mass fluxes. Exactly how/where it occurs will depend on the nature of the blocking, and the strength of the PV (and the degree of coupling/vertical stacking).

- I anticipate the strongest hemispheric blocking will occur in January, probably reflecting in all domains (-EPO/-AO/-NAO). Though, I also anticipate a systematic tendency to break down the NAO block first, with a vortex trying to develop Southwest of Greenland as the blocking begins to weaken.

Hope to add more clarity over the next several weeks.

The 00z looks very 1983/84 esque. Under the modeled global progression, most of the country would plunge into the freezer from mid-December right through New Years.

Regardless of the current modeling, I think a significant and widespread Arctic blast is likely in late December and/or early January over much of the nation. Exactly where remains to be seen, however.

Anticyclonic breaking does occur in the GOA, however I don't see anything supplementary wavebreaking downstream or poleward of the ongoing break. So, will be tough.

Still a better look than anything we've seen since..August?

Yikes..only 96hrs in but can already tell the precursorsory anticyclonic wavebreaking in the NWPAC is much weaker on the 00z GFS. Could be a +EPO or poorly placed ridge scenario if the misalignment continues.

What if you had no hands and let's say they were blown off by a landmine. Call it a horrible Birthday present gone wrong. Would you use your feet to express concern or distress over the models clasping them together. That's a question perhaps for another day. Did someone spike my eggnog.

Lol, dude you're the best.

That's good not great. Talk about needing some retrogression. This map should be the definition of the need for it.

That's a classic -NAMT look. Retrogression would occur within approximately 3-4 days thereafter.

I also think that strong Hudson Bay ridge is crucial to obtaining most effective -NAMT assisted retrogression.

Funny how after all the hand-wringing, the modeling is trending right into your typical -ENSO/+QBO climatological progression.

Of course, that's party/mostly because the intraseasonal forcing is constructively interfering with/mirroring a Niña Cell..that will change in mid-December, where an EPO spike may be favored before forcing reaches 150E and beyond in late December, which should force another round of NPAC wave breaking.

It's been brought up a few times on these forums on whether a warmer Arctic in winter would lead to a generally weaker, more meridional jet more prone to blocking patterns. Personally I see some validity to that view. I also agree with some of the current analysis and thinking re: a record warm Arctic/record low Nov Arctic sea ice has correlation to a weak polar jet, high latitude blocking and generally more extreme seasonal variability in the mid-latitudes. This seems likely to carry on into December and I feel that if the longwave pattern turns favorable across North America there's a very real risk of a historic arctic blast into the lower 48 this winter. Potentially something along the lines of 1983 or 1990 (not necessarily in December), or perhaps Jan 1979. Then again the stagnant pattern could always vary little from the present configuration promoting warmth over NA and cold across Eurasia for much of the winter...time will tell. I've never felt comfortable simply saying that a warm arctic means mild mid-latitudes, which seems to be a common refrain around here as of late. It doesn't need to be -40 in Yellowknife to have a healthy snowcover either. If the weak/meandering jet theory is true, along with a greater likelihood of blocking it's only a numbers game until a favorable blocking pattern develops and we score a major blast (either regionally or the entire CONUS).

 

I should mention cold airmasses easily form in situ over snow-covered expanses given the long nights and predominantly clear conditions across north-central North America in winter. I've seen the same effect in the Great Basin in winter when a strong high develops and inversions progressively deepen with time due to a negative radiative imbalance over snow-covered ground.

Or, maybe the warm Arctic was/is a result of the unprecedentedly strong -NAM and weak stratospheric PV regime that's been ongoing since September? A weak equator/pole thermal gradient is something you'd generally expect from a -NAM/weak PV regime, not necessarily a cause. Where the PV has been located (Eurasia), record breaking cold has been observed.

Back in early September, the polar stratosphere became heavily perturbed/warm relative to average, and the troposphere followed a few weeks thereafter. No?