Phil

You definitely said 26.

 

This was last night and what I replied to

 

 

Not a pretty statistic at all. There are 26 cases, none of them delivered.

Yeah, I meant 16. Not sure how that happened, probably hit the wrong key or had a brain glitch. My fault.

I remember you saying 26, perhaps a typo.

 

I am going to stick with December and February as my hopefull months. Seems like there is just way too much pressure on January for him to perform this year. #stagefright.

Oops, yeah that was I typo. Hit the wrong key I guess.

Meant 16 years, not 26.

Seems like goal-post shifting. Earlier you said there were 26 years (not necessarily just negative ENSO) that had +PNA in Oct/Nov and that none of them delivered in January. Do you still have numbers to back that claim up?

First, I said 16 years, and second, from the start I was only discussing -ENSO years. I thought I mentioned that too.

I thought this year was basically an El Niño now?

Reading and context are fundamental.

Again, this is dubious. Post the list of years that back up your assertion because I see years like 1969 and 1980 as all-time great Januaries for parts of the region.

 

I'd say at best you're overselling any correlation. Our mid-winter period has done fine many times when the PNA is positive in the fall. That is all that we care about.

Those were +ENSO years. I was only discussing -ENSO years through the 20th century.

I ran a time-series that I'll post when I get back home.

Nothing major, just two modified Arctic airmasses. One early in the month and one late in the month.

 

I don't know enough about PNA correlations to add anything on that subject. I will say this - most of our Portland area members would probably be happy with another January that drops 4-5" on us. How realistic is to talk about a major Arctic blast in January, when there hasn't been one since 2004? It doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me, given our recent climate trends, to automatically cast a January that doesn't feature a major Arctic outbreak as some sort of failure. A "noteworthy" January (to use your words) by historical standards is all but unattainable in the modern era, regardless of where the PNA or any other index lands in October/November.

A few things.

1) Regarding the bolded, why do you believe that? A few degrees of hemispheric warming likely cannot physically explain the lack of "noteworthy" Januaries (at least not by itself). Certainly, other areas across the NH have continued to set all time records on an occasional basis.

2) The PNA correlations hold firm all the way back to the "good days" of the early/mid 20th century. So I don't think it even matters which reference point you use.

Just my opinions here.

Daily SOI today was a whopping -35.46. That's a stronger negative than most days during last year's super niño. The running 30 day average is now -1.34, and that will likely fall further as the Walker Cell continues to weaken overall through early November.

https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/seasonalclimateoutlook/southernoscillationindex/30daysoivalues/

Either way, this year looks nothing like 2008 so far, so I don't think it matters anyway.

October 2008:

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2016-10/5F387856-87EF-4C1E-8EC7-46195AA560BD_zpslcpofmwk.gif

October 2016:

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2016-10/86FFDEF2-1BA5-421B-8B56-9B62E054675A_zps1yrinblh.gif

While January 2009 was dominated by the death ridge mid-month, the Portland area still managed four separate accumulating snowfall events that month - overnight on the 1st-2nd, on the 4th, overnight on the 24th-25th, and on the 27th. Total snowfall that month was 4.6" at the Portland NWS office, immediately after 19.0" fell in December. I have to agree with Justin, it was a reasonably decent January for us.

Were there any Arctic blasts in January of 2009? I think the idea expressed by the aforementioned correlations holds true, in that when both October and November run +PNA averages, the following Januaries are very unlikely to be noteworthy, with a few "reasonably decent" ones being the best offerings in a sea of bad apples.

This relation holds true all the way back into the early/mid 20th century.

It was actually a reasonably decent January for us, and in lieu of what had happened a whopping 10 or so days prior to January it's a rather moot point.

Yeah, if you enjoy ridging.

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/7708EEA8-2EC8-446D-A97B-9B1AC32DD811_zpscvakrnpv.png

1962 and 2008 were quite close ENSO-wise to where this year appears to be heading. Borderline negative neutral/weak Nina.

Did 2008/09 deliver in January? That was my point, never said anything about December. Or February, for that matter.

I'm just not worried. You seem to be trying to say we're screwed and I don't buy it at all.

I'm not saying you're screwed. I am saying, however, that the ongoing pattern progression isn't a good sign going forward, for both physical and statistical reasons.

Doesn't mean you won't score. Intraseasonal forcings are sufficient in most weak ENSO winters. It just means the winter as a whole might be less -PNA/troughy overall.

The reanalysis composite shows height anoms around zero for the month out around 150W 50N. The trough has been displaced. In fact there is a ridge out there right now. I think you're a little off on this.

 

I also want to point out I'm not saying Jan will be the big month this winter. I think it has the best shot by a tad, but it could be Dec or Feb.

Yeah, the CPC is just full of it. What do they know about calculating the PNA based on decades of research?

That seems pretty dubious. Looking at PNA values

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.pna.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

 

Years like 1953, 1962, 1968, 1979, and 1992 all delivered great Januaries to our region following a +PNA October/November.

 

And years like 2008 did just fine in the months to follow, as well.

How many of those were Niñas? Answer, zero.

There's a reason for the Niño lean in that compilation.

I don't think the PNA has been that positive this month using the old formula. The has been no western ridge and no Aleutian low. The low has been pretty much on top of us and just off the coast.

Come on man, this is just baloney. The entire NPAC has been dominated by troughing and vorticity. That's a +PNA regardless of how you slice it.

Doesn't matter which formula you use. The comparison holds firm with both formulas.

Should be seeing some improvement now in its final months as a lead up to a frigid 2017.

 

#iceagenow

You should have your bunker finished and loaded with non perishables by now. If not, your loss.

I'm going to get my wish for a mild November. We want to see this now.

Wanna guess the last time +PNAs in both OCT/NOV were followed by an Arctic outbreak in JAN?

Not a pretty statistic at all. There are 26 cases, none of them delivered.

Next time do yourself a favor and leave out the "snowier than 2008" part.

If I said that, I shouldn't have.

I'd still forecast an Arctic outbreak, though.

I have yet to make any prognostications one way or another about January.

 

It will probably at least be of the nice, April-level quality that we've come to expect.

Weren't you were calling for a cold January based on the strong GOA vortex and jet extension? Or was that someone else?

Jim's off limits.

 

Big Mac will beat you up.

Haha.

Actually I think Tim was the first to start pounding the January drum. So, he roasts first.

At least if January fails this year, Jim, Tim, and Justin are on the hook for it this time, instead of me.

Nah, you were all about a "December 2008 only snowier" early January 2015.

 

I don't think anyone in the lowlands had more than 18 inches that month.

 

Fail.

Oh, yeah I remember that one. Thing is, I'd make the same forecast all over again if the same circumstances were to arise again.

Was a total fluke that it didn't work out. Multiple processes conspired to shove that anticyclonic breaker a good 750+ miles east of where it should have ended up. There are no analogs for January 2015.

The persistent mildness is starting to remind me a bit of 2014-15. I still remember Phil working to convince us we were in for a blockbuster January that winter.

That was 2013/14, and it almost happened!!

Get your facts straight.

Weeks 3-6 and a little beyond. Looks Niño-ish.

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/A9627CA7-C4E4-496D-AD55-A36B494AEF5C_zpsacvbo78g.png

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/5D19DF59-FBDF-4E5A-A7E6-2C7FBE858699_zpstdnjsysw.png

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/6DA31D6D-9BDF-4D86-B5E2-C6F02711B56B_zps5jjgj3o9.png

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/A59807C7-85A9-4CBB-ABE2-BA5BBE471C30_zpsbirwhxf3.png

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/0BAD37C6-8991-4BBD-BB39-3564ECC6A7A6_zpsfrvshz8h.png

FWIW (which isn't much) the new ECMWF weeklies aren't pretty looking. Looks like a big +PNA pattern right through the end, into week six. Would be mid-December at that point.