Phil

Another thing we need to remember is the Hadley cells were also expanded in the latter part of the 19th century. It worked well for us then. I think it all comes down to overall context (the overall setting these things are couched in).

They were broad, true, but they were also weak. Essentially an inverted Hadley/Walker intensity ratio vs today, relatively speaking.

Today they're strong and broad/poleward.

Love the storm app by wunderground..very reflective wind speed maps. Can see the zone of higher winds locally, typical of downslope events.

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2DCE84E7-E125-4360-A2E6-65D357A198B0_zpswgwx2ou8.png

Got my personal station up and running on the app as well. Has both real and interpolated gust values based on the timing between transmissions, I assume.

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/A4D60463-F2BD-4793-B1EF-5CFC92B32FD9_zpspaxtvsic.png

I personally believe LWX is (once again) underestimating winds east of the Blue Ridge.

 

Current forecast is for 30-35mph gusts, which makes no sense to me. I'd put money down that DCA, IAD, and BWI all observe gusts between 40-50mph by noon Saturday.

With winds gusting between 40-50mph area wide today, LWX has finally caved and issued a last-minute wind advisory. I love LWX to death, but I think this one was obvious given W/NW wind climo is fairly straightforward here, IMO. Downslope days almost always overperform modeling south of the Mason-Dixon line when insolation is ample, especially on the bookends of the cold season.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5PM EDT SAT WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON.

* TIMING ONGOING. STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.

* WINDS NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE.

* IMPACTS SCATTERED TREE AND POWER LINE DAMAGE. DIFFICULTY DRIVING HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. DRIVE CAUTIOUSLY.

House is creaking in the wind today. Even through the trees my station picked up a 37mph gust. Probably ~ 45mph in reality, just based on the deep roar.

Looking a little more deeply into the wet October thing...I'm finding the wettest Octobers in the first half of the 20th century when combined with cold neutral or La Nina consistently led to good winters.

 

1910-11- Epic cold and snowy January in Whatcom County, modestly cold January with some snow Puget Sound area.

 

1906 - 07 - Very cold and snowy January for much of Western WA

 

1915 - 16 - Epic winter

 

1921 - 22 - Excellent cold and snowy winter

 

1924 - 25 - Epic cold December with heavy snow going into the cold wave.

 

VERY impressive list.

 

Going back even further you had...

 

 

1853 - 54 - Epic cold January

 

1884 - 85 - Coldest / snowiest December on record.

I'm guessing this correlation breaks down after the mid/late 1970s? System state is nothing like it was during the late 19th century to early/mid 20th century, especially over the Pacific and IndoChina domains.

Was it a Leaf-pocalypse !??

 

Ck your pm, one last time, then I'll wait for your review and send other comments thru pm.

 

Thanks again for buying the book !

Haha.

Sorry for the delay. Will get back to you ASAP.

Snow is falling in WV and MD/PA above 3kft. First snow of the year for them. Blowing snow visible on the ski resort cameras.

Graph by Sam Lillo, for climatological reference. Lowest values obtained in October are the darkest blue, stronger PV years in lighter green.

Looks like 2003/04 and 2006/07 are the closest stratospheric matches within the satellite era. Also, years 1980/81, 1984/85, 1992/93, 2005/06, and 2013/14 has somewhat lower values, but only 1980/81, 1992/93, 2006/07, and 2013/14 were +QBO, and only 1980/81 and 2013/14 were -ENSO/+QBO, and only 2013/14 was a decent(ish) solar match.

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/62648E9E-6EED-4CE6-8174-8A39319E0864_zps0bxxzzck.jpg

Wow..

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/hattard/realtime/u_65N_10hpa_gefs.png

Front blew through here a few hours ago. Caught the leaf apocalypse on video. DCA gusted to 43mph.

My station recorded a 30mph gust (through the trees). Winds were ~40mph at the treetops.

After a period of split flow pattern the rest of the month, the newest edition of the 12z GFS wants to develop a ridge over the PNW the first week of November. The weather looks to be boring the next few weeks.

 

http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/gfs/2016102112/360/500h_anom.na.png

Boy does that look familiar..+PNA/+NAO/Hudson Bay death vortex has been incredibly persistent since 2014.

Right... but it will not happen this winter.

Well, we don't know that for sure.

I'm just talking about the long term trends in the Hadley Cells. They vary significant on shorter timescales, almost to within the range of the long term/underlying trends.

Unless it reverses... we are not going to see any long-term improvement correct?

 

Slow expansion is still expansion.

Well, it will reverse eventually, and it could do so completely in under a decade. Based on our best observations and renanalyses, we've found significant variability/instability in the Hadley Cells over the last century+. The ongoing expansion is largely a natural cycle (AGW can explain 5-10%), so the big question isn't it'll snap back, but when?

I don't know, we've been having karma the past few years in the snow department.

Mother Nature is a masterful troll. Destroying wx-weenie psyches is her primary goal in any winter. Comments like that are analogous to dangling red meat in front of a lion.

(Obviously I'm joking..mostly).

Every winter for the last 3yrs it seems like all I see on the news is the northeast trying to figure out where to put all the snow that has fallen, snow mountains in parking lots that don't finish melting until June, etc....just sick of it. Four straight suck fest winters in the Puget sound area...been too long. The east coast can suck it!

You can have the snowfall, haha. All I want is a normal winter that doesn't last into April for once. A mild January would be nice as well (that month is too cold for me).

Exactly... 24 hours of heavy snow does not change the very warm reality of last winter out there.

Bingo. We actually had three moderate snow events last winter, all occurring in warmer than average patterns. So the media was treating it as another cold winter when in reality it was an incredible torch, unlike anything I've ever seen actually.

Sometimes our warmest winters are the snowiest, while our coldest winters can be the biggest failures in the snowfall department. All about storm track.

It's about time the east coast cooks!!! Looking forward to a real winter again around here.

You do realize that last winter was our warmest on record, right?

Just saying.

I am beginning to agree with north-central plains having a colder than normal winter, with PNW and Midwest seeing shots of arctic intrusions and mild, moist air. I'd put my money on the PNW and Midwest seeing higher than normal snowfall this season and that is where I'd expect the jet storm track to set up. I am still floored at the forecasts for New England to be in the deep freeze... pretty sure they're going to bake with the rest of the East Coast this winter.

I don't think New England is going "bake", but the SE states very well could. It really depends on the exact state of the NAM/NAO (not just the phase state).

Interesting graph by Anthony Masiello, depicting a correlation between the solar wind AP Index and the non-niño PDO,

Looks statistically significant to me on a modest lag, minus ENSO. Though the relationship appears to vary w/ time (as would be expected). Should this continue, one would expect a low frequency decline in the PDO to begin within the next ~ 4 years.

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/625D9896-B4CB-48C8-AD22-C781AD884A86_zpsqscqj31h.jpg

I like this news! I love blocky winters in general. Even if we don't hit the jackpot.

Same. I enjoy active, blocky patterns. I don't care if I end up on the mild side as long as someone in the country is getting hit.

The recurring theme of the CFS is blocking this winter. The location of the blocking jumps around, but most runs show us getting hit hard at least one of the three months Dec - Feb. At this point strong blocking this winter is a well above average bet. That is a good starting point at least. I'm betting there will be a couple of periods this winter the atmosphere will become quite Ninaish again which would argue for some fun and games for us also.

I agree 100%. This looks to be one of the most -AO Octobers on record. All -ENSO/+QBO Octobers that featured an AO below -0.3 were followed by coherent -AO winters, so this blocking is nice to see, IMO.

I'd take my chances with that group any day. Going further back it's rather interesting to note 1924 is high on the list also. Another winter with a mega blast. Even 2012-13 featured the coldest Jan of this century so far.

Probably best to avoid pre-1960 analogs, IMO.

Anyone else craving winter? I just went back and re-watched some of the blizzard videos on my phone, and I just realized the extent to which I take these storms for granted. I can't believe it's been 9 months already.

This was during the early afternoon:

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2016-01/9BA02B21-A44A-4554-AB09-BAD16C80BBD8_zpshdwbcpcx.jpg