Phil

Dewpoint hovering around 70 degrees right now. Yuck.

Huge changes in the trees over the last few days. Everything was green just two days ago, now lots of color showing up.

DCA is current at 87F, which is the hottest temperature ever recorded there so late in the year.

High temp/dew here today is 83.8/68. Nasty, glad this torch is coming to an end. Hopefully this is the last 80+ day for the next five months.

And that's the thing. Whether you think forward or backward in time, you almost have to arrive at infinity. That's a pretty mindblowing thought as well.

Yeah, it's kinda spooky to think about eternity, because humans process information linearly (hence our creation of "time" as a constructive, relativistic conduit to our understanding of the universe, as a substitute for entropy).

In truth (most likely) nothing is "linear", and time (as we know it) is merely a reflection of entropy, either by our own construction, or as a real expression (debatable). Personally, I'm fascinated with circles and curves, and I believe there's a reason they're the only universal expression.

Well, I don't believe in God. I do believe in other dimensions.

My interpretation of QM theory leads me to believe that we don't exist "within" dimensions, rather that we *are* dimensions. The only local reality is within the so-called "self".

Think of the Schrödinger's cat dilemma, except replace the cat with a human, say, me. Am I dead or alive? From your perspective, I'm in a potential state, but obviously, from my perspective, I'm in an actual state. So, do we just assume this juxtaposition is just another "normal" abnormality on a single dimensional plane, or are we looking at separate planes of reality?

Pretty ugly, splitty pattern coming up. Winter preview.

Need that Indonesian standing wave to propagate towards 150E ASAP. Vibes of 2005/2007 et al with the big +EPO/Pacific hose job, hence frigid air all bottled on the Eurasian side of the pole.

At least no signs of a rabid, O^3-eating PV/+NAM as of yet.

I've tried before. One thing I've tried to imagine is what was there before there was anything. Whether you believe in the Big Bang theory in or God, you have to wonder what was there before everything started. And if the answer is "nothing" or "another universe that collapsed into a singularity" or "God just sat around" - ok and what about before then? Blows my mind.

I'm not sure there even was a "beginning" to time/entropic reality. Could very well be infinite.

The size of the universe is mind boggling.

 

They now estimate 2 trillion observable galaxies with an average of 100 billion stars in each and planets orbiting around most those stars.

 

There is so much going on... for no apparent reason at all.

 

And then to think there are probably an infinite number of universes? Just so hard to wrap your mind around. And it began out of nothing? Why?

 

I hope it snows this winter!

Funny how that number keeps growing larger..

There are problems remaining w/ the standard model. It honestly wouldn't surprise me if someday we're forced to find an alternative one.

Earth is 6 billion years old. End of story.

You're no fun at all.

As for religion and old vs. new earth...I was raise around some very religious people. They were always very hung up on the "new earth" and "intelligent design" ideas...I always found that silly. Whether the earth is 6 billion or 6,000 years old is of no importance to me. I just could care less. Science tells us the earth is billions of years old and I accept that for the most part, it makes sense, of course many things in history made sense to the people at the time and were later proven wrong. Regardless it has literally no bearing on my faith.

Theoretically, this could all just be a computer program or hologram run by a superior intelligence. So, maybe the Earth is merely programmed to be 6 billion years old, while in reality the earth (and universe) is only as old as "you".

Looks like we warmed 24 degrees in 3hrs yesterday morning, from 54 degrees at 8AM to 78 degrees by 11AM.

Decent swing for autumn. Usually these big diurnal swings are more common during Spring when the humidity is lower.

Noticed a change in the trees today, particularly in the tulip poplars. Some differential shades of yellow showing up.

Locally as in PNW or Maryland?

Referring to the PNW.

My stuff is in the eastern forum.

All of the ensemble suites (EPS, GEFS, CMC, etc) made a jump towards a high octane +EPO type pattern in the medium/long range, with a weaker -NAM component.

End result is a wetter/warmer week 2 locally (and nationally).

Also, the mechanism through which CO^2 warms the planetary temperature isn't via a direct backradiative conduit, as was suggested. The whole "reflecting radiation back to earth" thing is nothing more than a gross oversimplification.

What happens is the molecule (tri-atomic) absorbs IR within particular frequencies not fully saturated within the AW. Upon absorption, the molecule enters an excited state and transfers some of this kinetic energy to non-homogeneously emitting bi-atomic N^2/O^2 molecules in the upper troposphere, where it can be thermalized directly and diffused through the column given the molecular collisional frequency in that domain is higher than CO^2's emissive frequency. This process raises the emissive-equilibrium altitude across the globe (where radiative exchange ratios are analogous to the planetary greybody temperature derived via the Stefan-Boltzmann equations).

In reality, the IR portion in reference within the AW is saturated no more than 2 meters off the ground. The changes to radiative balance are rooted aloft, not at the surface.

This is nonsense.

 

First of all, we've been pumping out greenhouse gases since the 19th century. And second, nobody in the scientific community denies the existence of natural climate change. That would be absurd. The issue is with GHG's, especially CO2, reflecting longwave radiation back towards the planet and adding an unnatural amount of warming to the system, regardless of background state.

This is both wrong and a misinterpretation of my post regarding attribution ratios. It's also a mischaracterization of the workings of the greenhouse effect itself.

1) Simple radiative transfer physics dictate the radiative forcing per doubling of CO^2 is ~ 3.7W/m^2 which is analogous to ~1.2C of surface warming. Up until 1950, the CO^2 content increased by less than 40ppm. So given the relative content fractal at the time, that's around 0.57W/m^2, or a statistically insignificant amount of surface warming.

2) I never said scientists denied natural climate change. How exactly you could derive that from my post is a mystery to me. I stated, clearly and concisely, that many scientists deny significant natural climate change (within the resolution in question), despite evidence to the contrary throughout the proxy records.

You know, it is going to be really interesting to see how the politicians and media play with this.

 

Although not nearly as educated as most on here about atmospheric sciences, I believe our weather here on earth is directly connected to that of the sun. When the sunspot numbers are higher, there is more magnetic activity between the sun and earth. I'm not entirely sure how it affects our weather but it does. Why and how else would low sunspot numbers coincide with global temps? What fascinates me is the lag time between weather on the sun and weather on earth.

Oh there's definitely a connection. Actually there are multiple connections on various timescales that are well established within the peer reviewed literature. The most fascinating aspect, from my perspective, is the impressive correlation between ENSO and intra-cycle/full cycle solar wind variations. Lots of peer reviewed literature on the matter, but physical explanations are lacking and/or highly uncertain.

Even many of the most diehard "alarmist" scientists will admit to the solar forcing on seasonal-to-decadal circulation(s), from the stratosphere to the tropical troposphere. The disagreement begins when we move from "regional" temperature variations to "global" temperature variations. Despite the evidence that the degree and distribution of tropical convection/cloud cover (hence the systematic radiative/energy budget) is significantly altered by variations in solar activity, it is often dismissed without quantitative (or even qualitative) reasoning. These guys will do anything to inflate CO2's responsibility in the post-1976 warming, because virtually the entirety of the warming from 1850 to 1950 requires a natural explanation, and admitting the existence of natural climate change undermines the proposed positive feedback loops required for significant AGW. This in spite of the widespread evidence of very large global climate swings within the Holocene..much larger than anything observed in recent millennia.

Record highs should be easy today. Mid-80s region wide. At least the longer October nights allow lows to drop into the 50s most of the time. Woke up to 55 degrees and a light fog this morning.

Looks like we finally get a low frequency pattern change later this week. Almost a classic Archambault event w/ the NAO flip.

Amazingly mankind survived without them for the first one million years of walking the Earth.

You don't have a cellphone?

We just had the big block a week or so back.

I'm referring more to the underlying pattern over the last 6/7 weeks. The NPAC jet has been relatively strong.

Phil, wasn't it you saying the earth would see significant cooling by 2016?

I was/am forecasting a period of (overall) cooling beginning in 2017, +/- ~1yr. Thermal inertia of the oceans obviously a factor here.

Don't atmospheric conditions mimic nina often during fall of NINOS and vice versa. It seems pretty common.

I'm not sure I'd go that far. Intraseasonal forcings can/do fall into states unrepresentative of the background state, though, and this year the background state is quite weak, so I guess it's not surprising.

It's the persistence that's been notable. Since September that GOA vortex has basically refused to budge. If it lasts into/through November, the statistical odds of NPAC blocking in DJF will decrease substantially.

Both the GEFS and CMC ensembles agree on the return of the Niño-esque Pacific firehose pattern, into at least into early November. Can't say I'm a fan of it, either.

Both ensemble suites resemble a freakin' super niño by day 16.

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/C2C3E4F5-0B77-4DD6-BE20-AFC8F6718BC2_zpsemgoztcu.png

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/A19445C4-D4A9-455C-9CDF-01961090FD02_zpsmkmttb4x.png

Fascinating surface pressure composite for the first half of October. Amazing to see such a well defined baroclinic signature over that long of a time frame. Something like that shifted a bit south in the winter would be amazing for us.

Nice look @ 500mb as well.

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/017732CF-7770-4E6A-A191-5B85E19EC012_zpsxr3yslmn.gif

The anoms near the Aleutians look a bit more robust than what I was looking at, but pretty much the same look. Even on yours the positive anoms over the NW are very weak.

Of course, once you get into weeks 4-6 on an ensemble mean, you're always going to have significant spread. I'd still argue there's a signal present, however.

Want to get forcing to around 150E to oust that GOA vortex regime, IMO.

The anomalies were the weakest I've seen on the Euro weeklies on the WeatherBell site. I want November to be mild, but the weakness of the anomalies being shown presumably means there is a lot of uncertainty.

Here's what I have.

Week three:

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2FAD7F9D-C8D8-47F3-A142-362409C62BAA_zpsu8ujmepz.png

Week four:

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/C077B36D-FB3B-4F32-B79C-84F0DDEA8F93_zpstztcfygn.png

Week five:

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/1B52C768-6EBA-4591-8BE1-7A64484734AA_zpsrddrqxhn.png

Week six:

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/94923783-0014-4465-AF8B-726DD60A3436_zpsnvfpxxxc.png