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Phil

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  1. October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

    in West of the Rockies

    Posted

    The anoms near the Aleutians look a bit more robust than what I was looking at, but pretty much the same look. Even on yours the positive anoms over the NW are very weak.

    Of course, once you get into weeks 4-6 on an ensemble mean, you're always going to have significant spread. I'd still argue there's a signal present, however.

     

    Want to get forcing to around 150E to oust that GOA vortex regime, IMO.

  2. October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

    in West of the Rockies

    Posted

    The anomalies were the weakest I've seen on the Euro weeklies on the WeatherBell site. I want November to be mild, but the weakness of the anomalies being shown presumably means there is a lot of uncertainty.

    Here's what I have.

     

    Week three:

     

    http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/2FAD7F9D-C8D8-47F3-A142-362409C62BAA_zpsu8ujmepz.png

     

    Week four:

     

    http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/C077B36D-FB3B-4F32-B79C-84F0DDEA8F93_zpstztcfygn.png

     

    Week five:

     

    http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/1B52C768-6EBA-4591-8BE1-7A64484734AA_zpsrddrqxhn.png

     

    Week six:

     

    http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/94923783-0014-4465-AF8B-726DD60A3436_zpsnvfpxxxc.png

  4. October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

    in West of the Rockies

    Posted

    I just looked at the latest update of the ECMWF weeklies. The anomalies being shown are so weak after week two it's almost meaningless. Obviously a lot of ensemble spread.

    I'm seeing something different. Looks like a +PNA/GOA vortex pattern through November/into December.,not what I was/am expecting. If anything looks sort of Niño-esque.

     

    My personal thoughts are: GOA ridge develops in November and strengthens into December.

  5. October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

    in West of the Rockies

    Posted

    Well this year should hit the jackpot in that area.

     

    And like he said before; snow is pretty tricky in general. The mountains here got pounded last winter and the lowlands got nothing. Go figure.

    Probably coincidence, but the four most epic winters of my lifetime occurred in years where the sycamore trees were loaded with seed balls. Like, branches drooping under the weight. Very noticeable.

     

    This year, the sycamores are once again loaded with seed balls, maybe to a higher extent than I've ever seen before. Of course I'm predicting a mild east coast winter, but maybe the trees know something I don't. :P

  12. October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

    in West of the Rockies

    Posted

    And how does this influence things going forward?

    Depends. This is just Hadley Cell intensity, not latitude. Reduced off equator convective integral, sinking air more prevalent over the subtropics, stronger mid-latitude U-wind component (jet) in this case. This over the hemisphere as a whole, not necessarily locally, but still helpful w/ forward progression.

     

    Somewhat Niño-ish on a latitudinal basis, I guess, though spatial orientation of Pacific forcing by longitude certainly isn't Niñoish, rather more of a longitudinally contracted/intense Walker Cell.

  16. October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

    in West of the Rockies

    Posted

    Its also your specialty. I've never studied any of that stuff, since my interest lies in climatology more so than weather prediction. So from where I stand, long term analogs are a crapshoot. I'll just wait and see what happens, and then study the result. :lol:

     

    But I definitely see the value in what you're doing, with regards to potential for improvement. Trial and error...

    Thanks. I do see your point, though. In the past I've paid the price for taking particular analog aggregates too literally at face value, particularly w/ the older years and even w/ modern stratospheric dynamics. There are definitely limits.

  17. October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

    in West of the Rockies

    Posted

    I don't get into analogs anymore. Too much uncertainty.

     

    It was interesting though how 1967 all of a sudden popped up from different places.

    Personally, I've found analoging to be extremely helpful (on the large scale) when interpreted properly. Most of the analog aggregates I've used in recent years have demonstrated more predictive value than seasonal models, IMO. Just my own personal observation.

     

    At least when it comes to isolating behavioral tendencies under certain systematic boundary states, I definitely rely on analoging to get the best picture I can.

  19. October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

    in West of the Rockies

    Posted

    This year was a pretty poor match with 1967 for September both from a 500mb anomaly and observed weather perspective. I think this winter will be a lot better than that one.

    You're thinking more than 10" @ PDX? Snowfall is such a fickle beast I'm not sure I'd go crazy with it, other than highlight potential for bigger totals. Lots of luck involved.

     

    Sometimes one storm will make or break a snowfall forecast.

  22. October 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

    in West of the Rockies

    Posted

    It's been a fun few days tracking the Wind Storm even if it didn't live up to expectations for most. Now it's time to focus on colder weather. The newest edition of the 12z CFS shows an Arctic Blast around mid-November. A huge Block forms in Alaska allowing Arctic air to drop down over the PNW. It's also a good sign to see that SE ridge form.

     

    http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/cfs/2016101612/660/500h_anom.na.png

    http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/cfs/2016101612/684/500h_anom.na.png

     

    http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/cfs/2016101612/708/500h_anom.na.png

    http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/cfs/2016101612/708/850th_nb.na.png

     

    I know it's the CFS but it's a great sign that longer term models are showing this. We have to start from somewhere.

    I've been watching November for awhile..2010 redux?

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