Phil

The duration of the GOA ridge and seeing it continue in October is pretty good proof. Not to mention the extremely persistent SE ridge. You also have the fact the winter after a super El Nino is a lock for at least one major Arctic blast. The stars have aligned for us. I want to see if the models are right about the big -PNA finish to this month before I go all in though.

There hasn't been much of a GOA ridge this month, and almost every Niña October features a SE ridge. These variables alone don't tell you anything about winter, IMO.

What I do see this year that stands out is a very strong -IOD cell w/ corresponding Indo forcing. Haven't seen one this coherent since the 1980s.

00z ECMWF is a bomb with the second storm. Almost looks like a sting jet blasting right into OR.

Looks like a major -PNA to finish out the month on the 0z GFS. That SE ridge late in the run is insane. I think we will either see a chilly GOA ridge / Western trough pattern or an Arctic outbreak late in the month.

 

The storm being depicted on the models this weekend is incredible. Not sure I've ever seen a low that strong so close to the WA coast before. Interesting that the all important fine details indicate relatively minor winds over land while the winds offshore are near hurricane force.

 

The overall behavior we are seeing this month and the continually reappearing GOA ridge have me close to saying this will be the winter of the century so far. The boxes are all being checked for something great!

The NPAC/EPO progression during the d11-16 period looks terrible on the 00z GFS, IMO (not that it matters).

Have to be careful with that Aleutian ridge. If it goes flat, in the absence of wave driving, it sets up a +EPO hose job and can self maintain for weeks. We saw firsthand in 2007 what that can do to a winter.

When Joe Bastardi dedicates an entire tweet to the PNW wind threat..

..you know s**t just got real.

Let it go.

What? I'm not the person that brought it up. I'd actually forgotten about the conversation until it resurfaced today.

I don't want to mischaracterize him, so I'm looking for clarification. Nothing more.

I didn't actually disagree, but it wasn't worth the back and forth over semantics.

 

We don't disagree with the bolded part. There is nothing to talk about!

I think you're contradicting yourself, hence my initial confusion. Again, I don't really care, and I'm not sure why you're bringing this up now given I thought we'd finished discussing it.

Let me explain why I disagree(d) with you. You indeed stated the dewpoint needed to drop below freezing, and conflated frozen water/dew (liquid) with frost formation at the frost point.

2 ways:

 

1) Temperature is cooled to dew point, dew is formed, and temps eventually reach 32 or lower as the night progresses, causing the dew to freeze.

 

2) Dew point is 32 or lower, and temperature is cooled to the dew point, creating frost.

Which I disagree with, contextually. Then you posted this, which made no sense to me:

His question was about forecasting the frost, not how frost is created.

Except you were (literally) describing how frost is created, in your opinion, which I disagreed with. That's what his question was about, also.

When I stated my disagreement, you said this:

Gonna have to agree to disagree on this one!

Wait, so do you agree, or disagree with me? I'm honestly very confused here.

I also love an a**-kicken wind event. Bring it!... Keeping it real -- these babies; when that strong, usually (almost always) curve further and further north. We shall see, as I have seen monsters change their minds at the last minute. Exciting!

Windstorms are awesome until you're sitting in the dark for days with trees down everywhere.

After what happened here last February, I'm a lot more weary of aftermath. Landscape was changed permanently over most of the county. A bunch of pics:

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/854-east-coast-and-gulf-coast-weather-observations-for-2015/page-13

Niña forcing has been dominating since late August. Signs of a subtle shift upcoming, however. Contraction of the eastward flank of the Walker Cell is forecasted, however that -IOD cell just won't give an inch spatially.

Should result in some EPAC warming and a bifurcation of that GOA vortex, as was anticipated between October 20th-25th.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/vp850.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

Ideally I think we'll want get forcing to center at ~150E, for the best shot at a deep -EPO/-PNA in constructive feedback with the +QBO/strat and antecedent waveguide.

12Z ECMWF also quiets the pattern down effectively later next week.

 

Looks like a wild 6-day period though.

Yeah, it reverts to the very familiar +PNA/+NAO that's dominated the last several cold seasons.

If we somehow get stuck with it again this winter, I'lol probably have to check myself into a psych ward.

No, we don't disagree at all on frost development. That was the point. We were saying the same things but for whatever reason you kept nit picking....

You said you disagreed with me, sir.

If you think the dewpoint needs to drop below 32F for frost formation, we disagree. If you think frost and frozen dew are the same thing, we disagree.

Nothing wrong with that.

My prediction for a monthly ONI between -1.1C and -1.3C is looking somewhat better now.

Made it down to 37.2F this morning. Noticing fewer mosquitos and crickets around today as a result.

Hard to believe it was 95 degrees a little over 3 weeks ago. As usual, summer's back was broken by a single early autumn storm system.

Yeah, pretty sure that Euro run is the first to show a legitimate high wind threat for the I-5 corridor. Much scarier track with that.

 

October 1962 of course is still showing up as analog a little further out in the 6-10 day range. 116mph incoming.

 

 

610analog.off.gif

Well, the progressive analog date for 1962 is 10/14 on there, which is 4 days from now.

Here is an average of the last dozen CFS runs for the month of January. The strong -NAO signal that Phil has talked about is there along with blocking over the Pacific. Very much the look Jan 1943 and Jan 1969 had.

Man, that looks orgasmic.

Similar to the ECMWF monthlies in December.

We can all do a better job, myself included. I am a sensitive person who just wants harmony and sometimes I get bit for trying to help. The fact that you recognize that you need to improve is a very positive step and I really believe this thread can be great again post Jesse (Trump slogan puns aside).

 

I will say, out in the open here, that it is hurtful to me as a working meteorologist to be told that I don't understand basic science over and over by you... I've worked so hard to get to where I am, I love my job as a forecaster, I have a M.Sc in atmospheric science... You know that I am a meteorologist, so let's move forward and show some kindness. I love to learn and I see this forum as an opportunity to learn from enthusiasts who live and breathe this amazing science like I do.

I apologize for that comment. It was out of line.

However, I (still) vehemently disagree with your take on frost development.

That is a lot of analogs!

I'm sure there are more, but I'm too lazy to dig them up tonight.

Please do not minimize the damage Jesse has caused to this forum. You know I have urged you to not repeat the same type of personal attacks since your contributions well outweigh your impulsive reactions. Hope you heed the advice.

I've tried to lay back somewhat, though I probably could improve my conduct further (last night being an example). I've never had much of a filter, I guess.

If Minnesota and Wisconsin has winter below average in this set up, But Is it possible that the entire US west coast can also sees below average temps plus above average precip? Is there any analogs like this kind of set up?

Yeah, plenty of them. Years like 1978/79, 1961/62, 2008/09, 1983/84, 1984/85, 1988/89, etc, were all cold in the NW and Midwest.

N word....but the context shouldn't have been construed as being offensive.

Is that actually why he was banned?

I thought it was his blowup with Tim or something.

He also used it to launch incredibly vicious and vile personal attacks against me that were completely baseless. For the record I did NOT complain to the admins about him. I had become accustom to him abusing me and other forum members for years.

"Abusing" you? Grow a pair, dude.

He isn't even aware the blob has transformed into a -PDO. His forecast is based on a bad premise. He will bust in a colossal way this winter. How can he look at the way this month has gone and come up with what he is forecasting?

Why are we still talking about the blob as if it's a pattern driver?

Makes me want to pull my hair out.

Is it really too difficult and time-consuming for him to be a little more specific? Rather than throwing a wet blanket on the entire west coast...? It wouldn't be that difficult for him to expand on that just a bit...

He's an east coast weenie with a cold fetish. Don't hold your breath in that one.

I will say this about JB. Bias aside, his pattern recognition skills are pretty d**n good in the deterministic range (out ~ 2-3 weeks). If you can look past his flaws, his take on nearer term pattern progression isn't that bad.

3600ft, so it's pretty high, but a relatively dry winter climate. Looks like they have had flurries the last couple nights.

 

Thanks. It was a pretty devastating diagnosis for him and the family. Lung cancer that has already spread to at least three other locations. He started radiation on Friday, just less than 3 weeks from his 65th birthday and retirement.

My goodness, so sorry to hear. My thoughts, prayers, and condolences.

Jesse no longer has an account here?

GEFS also suggests the vortex takes another hit in the long range. These are crucial developmental stages, so perhaps the beast will be on seditives this winter. Never a given, though.

Keep in mind the zonal winds are climatologically strengthening at this time of year, so the long range depiction by the GEFS is notable.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/hattard/realtime/u_65N_10hpa_gefs.png