Phil

Daytona beach went under:

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/7D9BC07C-5073-416C-B274-8656822EC33F_zpsqxhxpcli.jpg

Thanksgiving week in 2010 was an absolute blast. Got real messy at the end of the week... but the lead up was gorgeous. A foot of snow on the ground... crystal clear skies.

 

I also remember a winter wonderland here with lots of sun around New Years as well.

 

This picture is from Christmas/New Years that year... my kids and their cousins from San Diego going sledding down the road from our house:

 

 

 

 

And my kids on the deck right before Thanksgiving in 2010... just perfect combination of snow and cold.

 

Beautiful pictures. Memories to savor right there.

Death toll in Haiti rises to 842. Heartbreaking.

FWIW this October is looking like it will end up wetter and possibly stormier than 2010.

Looks like a more amplified version of 2010. Height anomaly pattern is almost a perfect match..can't find anything closer all the way back to the 1800s:

http://i724.photobucket.com/albums/ww243/phillywillie/Mobile%20Uploads/62E0F8B9-6168-40B0-B3E9-059C7BCAE689_zpsriwuifw2.jpg

Jacksonville Beach at low tide. Already getting overwash on the dunes.

http://www.surfline.com/surf-report/jacksonville-beach-pier-florida_5315/

Excellent insights here! You are correct that very active autumns are often a good sign. Years like 1990, 2003, and 2006 are excellent examples of that.

I think 2010 is by far the best match to the ongoing pattern. If it were included in the CPC analogs, it'd be dominating.

If that January pattern were tweaked just a tad, you'd have scored in every month that winter except December (opposite of recent trends).

I have to say that I lurk this forum often and prefer to post in the winter, since that is really where my interest lies. Much more interested in synoptic scale dynamics.

 

The passive aggressive digs and baiting on this forum is insane. There is a Canadian forum for the PNW and it's nothing like this. I'd say the only other weather forum that reaches the level on animosity among posters is the New England thread on another site, and ironically enough, it's full of snowstorm weenies! Maybe there's something about cold and snow that really gets the blood pumping, I don't know.

 

Easy solution to the baiting: don't bite. Unless you're going through puberty, there's really no excuse to go off the rails because of some passive aggressive baiting. If you think Tim is baiting Jim (which he is), then don't respond to it. Tim eventually will get bored. But for now, Tim revels in the meltdowns that come with warm weather on this forum; and Jim, honestly, although you can be stubbornly cold optimistic, you have some fabulous insights for pattern recognition that I hope to one day possess. It would make you a great meteorologist, believe me! But maybe keep the disappointment offline...

 

Both Dewey and Phil, you have really good insights, but sometimes it seems that you enjoy the arguing... I wish I saw more posts about the weather from you both rather than tongue sparring.

 

I love meteorology discussion, but the venom in here is really difficult to stomach.

 

It seems to be an everybody vs. Tim deal. Just put him on ignore if you have an issue. The fact that you don't have Tim on ignore makes you complicit in the bickering, if you know Tim triggers you.

Honestly no offense, but this seems fake to me (believe me I would know). Almost like you think you've found an opportunity to form an alliance and/or win over some hearts and minds, and you're doing it under the guise of objectivity.

Not trying to attack you here. Maybe I'm wrong.

The La Nina has made remarkable progress over the past week. Looks like a full blown event on the latest maps. The North Pacific has also made great strides toward a major negative PDO regime. I wish I knew more about how the extremely low IOD may play into this also. Unquestionably a dramatic global shift from where we were earlier in the year.

Looks like a mini WWB on the way, however, as Pacific convection increases again.

The -IOD usually helps strengthen the Walker Cell/Niña via a consolidation of the WPAC convective maximum and warm pool there. However, it's usually more associated with a higher tropical wavenumber, so unstable ENSOs/neutral PDOs usually juxtapose with the -IOD given the occasional destructive interference out of the WHEM domain(s).

No doubt the whole things reeks of a sharp reversal when it happens. Could be a season of 500mb acrobatics.

I'm with you here. I suspect we'll be seeing another multiyear regime change, from the +NAO that's dominated since 2014, towards more of a -NAO, similar to what was observed from 2008-2013.

That monster -NAO juxtaposed over a high wavenumber regime just locks the GOA trough in place on the 00z ECMWF. Until wavelengths increase after October 20th, that GOA vortex isn't going anywhere.

The GOA vortex should bifurcate and/or retrograde between October 20th and October 25th, IMO. Once this happens, it'll set the stage for a trend towards NPAC blocking in November.

About what?

About the fact that your ulterior motive has always been to upset Jim, Jesse, and anyone who enjoys colder than average weather.

At least that's what it looks like to me. Almost like you're being intentionally transparent so everyone knows it while giving yourself enough room to wiggle away in the process, driving your critics over the edge of sanity while you sit back and laugh.

That about right?

Gets pretty hard to assess anything before satellites and actual recon data. Kind of a dart throwing exercise with regards to the intensity of many pre-1960s storms. NHC reanalysis has done the best that it can but there's lots of uncertainty. Even a relatively recent storm like Audrey (1957) for example, was found to be way weaker in reanalysis than was originally estimated. I have to imagine there are lots of similar cases.

That's true. Reconstructing based on storm surge and tree damage in wooded areas only goes so far.

Speaking of needing new material...

You kinda walked into that.

Weather enthusiasts trivialize loss of life associated with extreme weather all the time. Playing the holier than thou role is pretty disengenuous.

So do lawyers.

And historically the U.S. only sees a landfalling Cat 4 about once per decade. Charley was the last one, Matthew could be the first one since. Only thee Cat 5 landfalls in the country's recorded history.

It wouldn't surprise me if there were more cat5's earlier in the 19th century. Coastal population was much smaller.

Also, cat4s used to be much more frequent.

I could sneeze and houses would collapse....

 

I know it was 7.0...

Sounds like a personal issue.

The loss of human life isn't something I'd joke about.

Didn't like 100,000 people die there in a 5.7 earthquake?

What's your point?

It was much more than a 5.7, BTW.

There are 283 people dead in Haiti, and we're making jokes about grass huts?

I heard some grass huts were destroyed in Haiti!

Go f**k yourself.

Katrina set a whole new standard.

I dunno, for surge yeah but not for wind. The Labor Day hurricane back in 1935 brought winds over 200mph. People were sand blasted to death..literally stripped of their flesh. Andrew in 1992 also delivered gusts beyond 200mph.

Sandy wasn't even a hurricane by the time it hit. #weak

You said "delivered the goods". I'd say 2-3ft of snow, 100mph gusts, 10-15ft of surge, 50ft waves, and 12-18" of rain w/ imbedded thunderstorms would suffice in that regard.

Once again another overhyped hurricane. It's been 11 years since a hurricane actually truly delivered the goods.

Shhh don't jinx it.

Oh, and then there was Sandy #micdrop

Just looks like it's weakening slowly to me. I dunno...

A storm typically weakens during an ERC, while the core grows.

Figure skater analogy, AKA conservation of angular momentum..pull your arms in and you'll spin faster, and visa versa.

Non-stop from Phil tonight... trouble dealing with anxiety?

You know I'm right.

And yeah, probably.

Looks like Matthew has almost completed his eyewall replacement cycle. Core is notably larger/growing.