Phil

Seems that nearly every part of the country is grumpy about their weather this year. There are probably many people east of the Rockies as pissed off about their winter as I am about ours. Just too much of a broken record this time around. Hopefully the young people on this forum know what the expression means.

Exactly, it's no longer enjoyable.. My heating bills are something out of a horror movie. The insane cold led to the bursting of 3 pipes leading into my house back in January. No birds or signs of life. My daughter has been fighting pneumonia for a month, and the cold isn't helping that.

 

Last night we were slammed with wind gusts reaching 72mph and 4" of snow as temps fell to 0 degrees yet again. Ordinarily I'd love that..

You quoted the wrong post here.

Haha, ya think?

 

I've had a brutal, stressful, wired, crazy, hectic, out-of-control week..so I'm probably not done lousing up.

1) Do away with the individual forums for each region, and instead pin a thread for each region in one forum named "US Weather". Preferably 3-4 pinned threads: NW US, SW US, Central and/or Eastern US.

 

2) Mod-preview posters with tendencies to troll and/or attack. New members that are joining are afraid to post here at the fear of being attacked for their preferences/ideas/etc.

Another nice day in Redmond and Bothell. High clouds starting to move in and 50º. Something to note as well, today was the last sub 40º solar day until September 28th.

Bull. Mets on AmericanWX are numerous and post all season long. If you're at the point of using "summer" as an excuse for the lack of professional participation, you have a problem..so just admit it already.

 

There's a reason for the lack of mets here, but it's clear to me that no one is interested in solving the problem(s), which stem(s) from forum division and unnecessary trolling. This place needs to be totally restructured we want any influx of new membership.

101 days until the days start getting shorter. Winter is coming!

Thanks for souring my mood. I haven't seen a 60 degree high in almost half a year, so can it.

 

I don't think spring is ever gonna get here. Only 4 degrees outside with blowing snow. I've had it. F**k me. F**k everything.

Eh, I'd be pretty surprised if next winter is snowier for a lot of western WA with a moderate El Nino. There's not much recent precedent for big snows with a moderate or strong El Nino (2006-07 and 1968-69 were both weak), certainly not more than the 15" we had here this winter or the 14" they had in Clark County. Seattle might be able to top their 4" total from this winter, but climo says don't bet on it.

2006-07 and 1968-69 were both moderate, with a peak trimonthly ONI of 1.0+: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

When do you expect the current maximum to start dropping off?

In 2-3 years..we're at peak now. The solar cycle will begin to fall off gradually between 2016-2018. The current blip will subside soon, obviously.

 

I think you asked this question in another thread and I replied in a more detailed manner..do you remember which thread that was? I'm too lazy to do it again.

Might as well enjoy it, because this may be the last solar max we'll see for 30-50 years. Latest magnetic data continues to suggest a Maunder-like minimum is on the way.

Thanks, yep I meant 1968-69. I'm sorry if I came off in a negative manner.

I'm all in for a Nino developing this year. I am usually right when it comes to ENSO. I was one of the few that predicted the quick demise of the 2012 event. In retrospect I wish that Nino had gone full blown to get it out of its system.

Sorry to sound like a d**chebag, but please give credit where credit is due...I've busted my butt in research, and given the fact that I had these predictions out years before you, I'd like some credit. Sometimes I get the sense that you feed off me.

 

I predicted the demise of the 2012-13 event over 1 year in advance, as well as the current (temporary) drop into La Niña conditions.

 

I've also been predicting the weak-to-moderate 2014-15 El Niño since July 2012. I worked hard on my prediction, while you were against the idea of a Niño as recently as a month ago. No offense intended, just feel the need to clear this up.

 

Looking very possible this area will end up with 3 loser winters in row for snowfall. What a ******* joke this climate is.

Then you jump to this nonsense? Winter 2014-15 could easily be another 1967-68. Don't let your emotions dictate your forecasting.

When you upwell water with a deep thermocline, upwelling is much less effective than upwelling with a shallow thermocline. The thermocline depth in the east Pacific is typically quite shallow, and during El Ninos when the subsurface is warm, is deep. That is why the SSTs are colder than normal.

Thanks, appreciate the reply.

 

I agree it takes longer, but we saw it happen as recently as 2011. The subsurface was very similar to where it is today, and people were calling for a super-Niño even in the peer reviewed literature, totally glossing over the forcing mechanisms behind the WWB/KW events, and why they would cease and fail to preserve the Niño-thermocline.

 

The Walker Cell eventually migrated west, and we ended up falling back into a moderate La Niña within 13 weeks, and I personally couldn't understand the logic behind Hansen et al.

 

 

The actually SSTs are important to convection - and the convection influences the position and strength of the jet to its north. So you are right on that account. But anomalies with depth paint a big picture when it comes to the Kelvin waves and the eventual surface anomalies. When they are even a bit above normal, the convection will shift east influencing the northern hemispheric circulation (and global) circulation patterns (Walker cell positions).

Agree that topical SSTs significantly influence the Walker/Hadley cells, no question. But wouldn't you agree that the tropical circulations precede ENSO by a detectable margin, and are affected by more than just SSTs? Before a Niño, the Walker Cell migrates eastward (as it has been doing for 1yr now). WWB/KW activity increases as it migrates, increasing warmer SSTs/uplift farther and farther east, etc.

Just FWIW, it looks like legitimate troughing could briefly return to the west-central US during the late March. Big +AAM surge migrating poleward with retrogression over the NPAC..right in time for Spring.. . Could also lead to a severe weather outbreak in the Central/SE US..

 

However, this should be brief, and it looks like the cold signal in the East continues into April, looking at the stratosphere and the culling of the PV. Total ugh..

 

Some similarity to 2009 at this time.

For those not interested in analyzing the stratosphere/mesosphere/solar forcings to find the precursor, I strongly recommend this paper...a bit dated, but very valid: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2008JCLI2691.1

delete plz

For the folks in CA, Ninos are fickle. They can be wet -- or not.

Often time it depends on the type of El Niño:

 

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1/iod/enmodoki_home_s.html.en

 

El Niño Modoki, aka the "half-way" Niño, is often times not very friendly.

Here's a great animation depicting a resonant forcing..in this case, we're looking at the QBO from 1960-1999:

 

http://sandrolubis.files.wordpress.com/2012/08/qbo.gif

 

Notice the angular momentum shifts in the extratropics/mid latitudes as the QBO collapses and changes phase...also notice how the QBO tends to govern the upper level PVs and some tendencies in the Rossby wave train..

The subsurface "warmth" is a product of downwelling/westerly momentum..and in reality, those "warm" subsurface waters are significantly *colder* than the SSTs. Subsurface waters upwell to the surface on the trailing portion of kelvin waves..and will show up as "cold" SSTs..despite having been warmer than average at depth.

 

I don't know why so much attention is paid to the subsurface..it is irrelevant as this stage. People see warm subsurface anomalies and think there's a mass of hot water itching to hit the surface..

 

Variations in subsurface temperatures are forced by surface winds/large scale circulation. Westerly wind bursts (WWBs) force Kelvin Waves, and they can be predicted well in advance when using the proper forecasting methods. There has been a great outpouring of research into Solar and the QBO as governors to the dominant tropical circulation/MJO bias over 10-30 month intervals. Some of the newer peer reviewed research has successfully predicted ENSO out 2-3 years with these methods. Soon it will be realized that ENSO is externally forced by the Sun, and QBO/SAO. This is why our dynamic modeling of ENSO is so piss-poor. When statistical modeling stomps dynamical modeling on a regular basis, you know that you have your governing physics wrong. Statistical models only work when there is at least a minor, semi-predictable harmonic to ENSO behavior..suggesting that the forcing(s) are also harmonic in nature..aka specific, not chaotic and internal to the system..

Rarely. The last time anything shut down here was during Sandy, which brought gusts over 100mph here (elevations above 2800ft were protruding into the low level jet), and two feet of snow.

 

Otherwise, you have to go back to the winter of 2009-10.

It's time for the endless cold back east to come to an end, so the pattern has a chance to shift into something different.

 

Yes please. It's time for flowers and birds and stuff.

That might be the place!

The Texas gulf coast sucks worse.

The mods can feel free to move this thread, but I wanted to at least end up with a link to it here...

 

I was a bit disappointed to see the February monthly sunspot number was 102 which is the highest yet for this cycle. Looking at past cycles it's very normal for most cycles to have a double peak, but the first peak is almost always higher than the second one. We are currently in the second peak...at least it appears we are. It is interesting to note the AP index has been pretty low and is currently only at 4 in spite of sunspot and flux numbers being quite high.

 

Just wondering what some of the people on here that know more about this than me think. Does anyone have a link to a site which shows historic data for the AP index?

Don't worry, it's nothing and the Sun will settle down to the SC24 mean this spring.

 

But is it any coincidence that the strongest solar flux surge in 13 years is coinciding with strong WWB activity, forcing the KW currently over the NPAC? The latest peer reviewed literature would suggest not.

We are getting due not only for a mega winter, but also another region wide wind storm.

You're never "due" for anything when it comes to the climate system. The statistical hyperbole is everywhere and it blurs the line between conclusion and reality. It's such a convenient thought process, though, that folks still gravitate towards it.

 

It's way too early to be claiming 2014-15 will suck in the west, and/or that the tropical forcings/circulations will spike the global temperature. Heck, it's not even a given that we'll anything more than a weak El Niño. These questions will be answered in 4-5 months...it's much more complicated than ENSO = etc.

 

Take the 2002-03 El Niño vs the 2009-10 El Niño. Both nearly the same in terms of ONI, but far different in regards to the stratosphere (QBO/QTO/SAO), Solar, and the tropical circulations.

 

The 2002-03 El Niño did not register in the global temperature, the 2009-10 El Niño led to a large spike. They also were very different winters in the PNW. There are obvious reasons for the differences..there is no such thing as a "typical" El Niño, but I would say there are two breeds of Niño. I'll get into that later.

I'm glad NYC didn't get hit for the simple fact that they have had enough snow this winter.

 

Hope they torch next year with 0 inches.

I'm just glad New England is missing out. I'm still pissed over the February 2013 storm that whiffed me completely and gave them 25" w/ 80mph winds at the coast.

Well go figure. The ENTIRE storm is going to end up being south of NYC and we’ll end up with nothing but flurries. I might be mistaken, but it would seem that the same reason the PNW winter weather busted is the same reason the storm is being suppressed so far south over here. PV was suppose to dig further SW (according to models about 3-4 days ago) but instead it drifted south and east.. Storms in the PNW went to far north, storm over here went south.. I THINK US PNW people are just cursed.

Yep, total bust here too..as tends to be the case with WAA-oriented storms. I can't believe it's midday in early March and it's 3 degrees outside.

 

I also just realized that I haven't seen liquid precipitation in almost 3 months, or in 25% of a year. It's been that cold..

Yeah... it rains. That can be fine. But to cheer for endless stratiform, cold rain until July is silly... that is not normal in this region. You know that and you are trying to be controversial.

Hey, my wife loves 100 degree weather..I hate it unless it brings me severe wx. I guess we all have our own preferences.

 

I hate endless ridging too..frankly I hate endless anything. I like activity and variance.