Phil

Maybe if it were January. . .

 

After last week, if it seems too good to be true, it probably is. Had this gone as shown a couple of days ago, it would have been beyond too good to be true for North Sounders.

It's been fun watching you root against it from the depth of your soul, though.

Ok let's try this againhttp://s8.postimg.org/o11ascao5/GFS_snow.pngCan you see it now?

 

IF not then f*** it

You got it.

You are a ****.  How did you get married.

 

Although, it shows nothing here so I could care less what happened either.

What's gotten into you? You've been attacking people all night.

I know you allegedly have more extensive knowledge than all of us..

Whoever told you that is wrong.

 

GEFS very likely colder due to poorer resolution. I do get nervous though when I see the op so far an outlier. I've seen the op fail miserably in the past with the ensemble mean winning - even in the shorter term. We will see. The 18Z NAM was still cold (it shouldn't be because of its resolution). The operational 00z NAM now looks even colder and looks like some snow Sat and even more Sat night and Sun morning. The Nam is full bore cold-snow looking for the entire Seattle metro area. Bellingham and folks up north should do well on the way out of this one the way it looks at this point. Things can change, but it is weird that the nam is the consistent cold model with over -20 mb thru the Fraser and lots of cold air spilling over the Cascades.

Thanks, I value your input greatly. I'm personally weary of using the NAM outside 24hrs..it has failed me so many times.

 

Phil, what do you think of my prediction of a multi-year Nina beginning in 2015-16?

I haven't really looked into 2015-16 yet. I use the Solar/QBO/SAO method to predict the shifts in tropical circulation/convection that precede an ENSO event. I didn't invent the theory, rather it's already in the peer reviewed literature.

 

This method accurately predicted the demise of the 2012-13 Niño attempt, and the brief La Niña conditions right now. For 2014-15 it's predicting a weak or moderate El Niño, with either an early peak or double peak.

OK i get it, you feel the OP is better short term, but I am allowed my own opinion as well.

 

I am not saying either one will be correct, but when you have every single ensemble in the short term screaming a totally different outcome than the OP, they cannot be ignored considering the major differences of outcome that could occur.  And, other models have shown something more close to the GFS ensembles than the GFS OP recently as well.

 

We shall wait and see.

 

I am not expecting a major event of snow at all, but all possibilities are in play.

 

I'm not trying to tell you what to think. But maybe stop to consider why the GEFS are colder than the OP?

Maybe.

 

But if that is the case, then I don't wanna see anyone get excited about the ensembles ever again.

 

The ensembles are available for a reason, and if they all show something entirely different than the OP (which they are) then I would tend to lean their way.  But what do I know, I am not a Pro Met.

The OP runs should be weighted over the ensembles in the short range. The ensembles are a medium/long range forecasting tool.

Just took a look at the 18z ensembles. I can't remember the last time that all of the ensembles were in one camp and the operational was so drastically different at such a short range. It's like 6 degrees warmer than the ensemble mean two days out. I understand the terrain issues, but wow.

 

temp_49.png

That's essentially what I've been trying to say. The fact is the GEFS does not have the resolution to adequately handle the Cascades. There could be more to it than that...I have not compared the GEFS with the OP @ 500 mb.

 

However, given the trajectory of the airmass and the coinciding wind-field, I would expect the differences to be especially glaring with this one.

When are you expecting the current solar max to fade?

A good way to determine this is to look at the IMF polarity from the previous cycle. It's a great predictor for cycle-length and amplitude.

 

This suggests that the while the current solar cycle should last 13-14 years, we're passed the cycle peak, and should see a notable decline begin between 2016-2018. Also, in watching the current IMF/polar field developments, we're essentially watching solar cycle 25 take shape. The closer to zero the IMF ends up at peak deviation, the weaker solar cycle 25 will be.

 

We can see that this method predicted the rapid incline of solar cycle 24, and the early peak (the 2000-2004 period correlates to 2007-2011, for example)..

 

http://www.leif.org/research/Solar-Polar-Fields-1966-now.png

I live in East Dubuque, Illinois, literally the town in very NW Illinois where Iowa, Wisconsin, and Illinois meet.

In other words, the North Pole of winter 2013-14.

 

I can't imagine how you've coped with the -20F stuff all winter. I had one low below -20F in January, and it was literally painful to go outside. I lost all feeling in my face just getting the mail.

This winter is straight up misery. It started off fun, but this constant brutal cold is just terrible now. A low of -14 forecasted today, only got up to 7 here today. I wish I had some of the weather you guys get, I miss warm weather.

Where do you reside? Yeah, it's been nuts. I'm forecasted to drop to -2F tonight.

 

The sub-zero lows have been routine this winter..I can't remember anything like it..

 

I can't recall my forecast ever looking like this in Mar: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=39.546941396253146&lon=-79.37347412109375#.Uw_G_Hi9LCS

In other news, what a winter this has been for the Midwest. Cities all over the place are breaking their all-time records for # of lows

 

The broad forcing state has been changing dramatically since 2009 in response to the now evident positive disequilibrium in the tropics (Raw NOAA 15/16 - - - CERES, AIRS, and the Sonde network are now in agreement here). Once we leave the current solar maximum, the changes will be rapid in the Northern Hemisphere, with an especially dramatic shift in climate north of 40N.

Dramatic improvement on the Euro in regards to the PV. One more bump SE and SEA would be in good shape.

??

 

Not really. Here's what a nice cold January in Fairbanks looks like

 

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/pafa/2012/1/26/MonthlyHistory.html

 

Minnesota can get more dynamic cyclogenesis, but that's about it.

I thought he was planning on taking the trip to catch a blizzard? I didn't say anything about avg temperatures.

 

Of course Fairbanks is colder on average.

Fairbanks is certainly colder.

Actually I have a great idea for you. Go to Mt. Washington NH..for a small fee you can spend a week at the observatory and get blown around in 90mph winds and blinding snow.

 

That's as extreme as it gets. My wife and I did it in 2009 and it was awesome.

I just need to experience the most extreme conditions possible to satisfy me for a while. In 2000 I never dreamed I would still be waiting to see a great January in 2014. I'm just done with it here.

If you want extreme, try Minnesota. Fairbanks is weak sauce comparatively.

I feel like a fair weather sports fan... Rooting for the 49ers when you’re from Dallas... Is no worse than enjoying a snowstorm in New York when you’re rom the PNW lowlands.

 

Ha, you totally ninja'd me. Exactly what I posted.

 

Still, if I could choose to enjoy a blizzard or not enjoy one, I'd pick the former.

Honestly though, I could drive an hour from my very own home in Bellingham and see 18 inch snowfalls about 10 times a winter if it was THAT special... It takes 60 minutes to drive to Heather Meadows at Mt Baker... I don’t do it though because 18 inches of snow anywhere but in my home town isn’t that special. There is something about seeing the streets you see every day, the trees, the parks, all of the sites that NEVER HAVE SNOW ON THEM, covered in a massive blanket of white fluffy snow that is incredibly special. It transforms the world you know into something magnificent. . . I don’t know these streets, I don’t see these trees and sites every day, so seeing them all covered in snow is like seeing my backyard covered in grass.... The only thing I do enjoy about snow anywhere is watching it fall in street lights and hearing it crunch under my feet. The enjoyment of the actual snow on the ground is not the same anywhere but home.

 

I definitely agree with you there. Nothing quite like snow in your own domain.

 

The comparison is like watching your favorite football team play in the Super Bowl, vs watching two teams that you don't give a rats a** about.

Ok I don’t know what it is, but the 23*F tonight in NY feels like about 10 in Bellingham. It’s beyond cold, and it’s windy too. I’m not sure I like the cold weather here. The snow piles on the sides of the road are disgusting too, reminds me of being in Anchorage in the middle of winter when it hasn’t snowed in a week. I’m staying on Staten Island right near the S.I. Ferry. The roads are filled with potholes from all the salt they’ve poured over here this winter. The new mayor has his hands full.

 

Haha, well tomorrow night you're going to be in the single digits. Have fun while the rest of us envy you.

Just for lolz, the GGEM buries Brennan in NYC with 18" of snow..he's like a snow magnet. Gets crushed in Bellingham, then the snow follows him to NYC.

It is pretty odd when it's by far the warmest member of all though. When looking at the ECMWF ensemble it seems almost certain the GFS will trend colder in the home stretch. The GFS seems to have really fallen on hard times over the past week.

Again, it could be the lack of resolution on the GEFS, hence poor handling of the Cascades' influence.

 

The ECMWF doesn't take 850s below -4 in SEA before flow turns onshore and temps/dewpoints rise in the low levels.

Nope

Well that's your problem then. You need to put in the proper BB code

Did you code them?

This is starting to feel less interesting. I suppose there will be surprises... but it seems less explosive and seems to transition to wet and mild rather quickly.

Brennan will probably see more snow in NYC than the rest of us combined.

 

/troll

18Z is meh for down here. Bulk of the cold digs into SW Canada. The westerlies bursting through the minute the PV approaches just keeps it from digging as far south as previously shown. Climo probably also plays a factor. Most events at this point in the season have a fairly stark North/South gradient. This one looks like it will be no exception.

 

Could be another great event for Whatcom County. Hopefully the Seattle area can get in on the action as well this time.

GFS is beginning to follow the Euro in keeping the PV held back in W Canada. Not good but these developments could easily be a hiccup.

You and phil are some real weather geeks. I love it. Awesome description from both of you guys!

Ibrchris is clearly above my level when it comes to synoptic scale forecasting.