Phil

Big difference over the past winter/spring has been the +PDO/El Niño-esque Hadley Cell regime, which is now being reflected in the SSTs..

 

We now have a +PDO and El Niño conditions present.

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2014/anomnight.4.3.2014.gif

Outside of the regional forums, there are topics for climate change, ENSO, arctic ice, solar, etc. People from the Midwest aren't likely to see or comment on El Nino posts when they're buried in monthly Pacific NW whining about rain.

Ah I see, agree there. But they're also not likely going to get to them with the 5 trillion subforums to scroll through.

Seems like the hype is making its rounds:

 

http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2014/03/strong-el-nino-may-be-materializing.html

He says:

 

Ahead of the Kelvin Wave, we then see downwelling, which lowers sea levels and cools sea surface temperatures,

Since when does downwelling associated with a WWB cool SSTs?

 

Seems like a lot of folks forget that the subsurface waters are still generally colder than surface waters, and that a maintained series of WWBs is required to jump start a Niño..

I liked Fred's idea of separate forums for separate topics. I'd like it better if it was enforced.

You mean separate forums for different regions? I think we should have a vote on the merge plan that has been floated around.

 

I agree that we should have different pinned threads for each "region", but what good does dividing up the community into entirely different forums do? We're not a big enough community, and we won't be unless we merge the forums.

 

Unless the goal is to have the same 5 or 6 folks posting in each forum, with zero inter-forum communication...

Reasoning? I don't see a problem with it.

I can't stop laughing: http://www.numberwatch.co.uk/warmlist.htm

I walk away from the forum for a few hours and come back to this.

 

Phil,

Please don't expect glowing responses to your photos or regional observations when they have no geographic bearing to this subforum. Plus sometimes it feels like you are discussing the burdens of wealth and food to a forum filled with war refugees.

I'm not expecting "glowing responses" to anything I post, but I do expect a meager level of respect and civility, given the fact that everything I've done here has been well-intentioned.

 

I make a few "out-of-region" posts now and again, but the majority of my contributions are scientific in nature and apply to this subforum in one way or another...at least I hope they can be viewed as contributions...

 

Who gives a rat's azz whether or not someone lives in a "snowier" climate than someone else? Is that what drives the level of "respect" and/or "acceptance" you get around here? If true, that's quite sad, in my opinion.

Hope it's ok if I post these..

 

Winter just refuses to give up...snow and 50mph winds today

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/u2ghhV/640.jpg

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/XF0Zcw/800.jpg

 

http://catchmypicture.com/f/U5zKV0/800.jpg

The -26 extreme low is surprising. Many places in WA east of the Cascades have been colder than that. I'm sure the lake has much to do with that.

Yeah the lake buffers out the extremes in both seasons. Cooler summers as well.

It sounds appealing to me too, though I am pretty committed to where I am now.

 

I like places where they embrace the snow, instead of treating it like a catastrosphe like Seattle does. Though I can see how they would get tired of it by about March or so.

Agreed there. I could never live in a big city where people fret over every snowflake. My sister in DC says people there flock to the grocery stores when snow showers are in the forecast..lol..

 

 

I read the Wikipedia page on Houghton though..very nice place if you're an icepussy..but otherwise its probably too extreme for me:

 

"Climate

Houghton has a humid continental climate but the (typically) long and snowy (due to lake-effect snow, with an average of 218 inches (5.54 m))[29] winters make the city feel as though it is in a climate much further north. It is sometimes said that Houghton has “two seasons: winter’s here and winter’s coming.”[30]

 

While Houghton’s winters may be the subject of humor, residents take the subject of snow and winter very seriously. Houghton is one of the premier “Winter Cities” found anywhere. A “Winter City” is a community that accommodates winter, celebrates it, and whose residents generally enjoy the season by participating in a variety of outdoor activities. Among those activities are cross country skiing, snow-shoeing, ice fishing, snowmobiling, ice skating and outdoor ice hockey, among other activities. Houghton celebrates winter through the “Winter Carnival” organized by Michigan Tech every year in February.[31]

 

Houghton's summer climate tends to be especially pleasant, as hot temperatures are often moderated by the cool waters of the nearby Lake Superior. Only once, in July 1988, have temperatures hotter than 100 °F (38 °C) been reported. The coldest temperature on record has been −26 °F (−32 °C) on 21 January 1984, which is actually less extreme than many places to the west, and the heaviest monthly snow 119 inches (3.02 m) in December 1972. The highest mean snow cover has been 43 inches (1.09 m) on several occasions, most recently in February 1996."

Brett Anderson's latest update on the long range pattern below (after a section about another snowstorm).      Does not look as wet here now.   Looks about normal.  

 

In fact... he must have run out of red coloring or decided to use primarily blue or leave it blank.  

 

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/another-storm-another-snow-map-and-the-long-range/24987810

 

 

Very little red shown on these maps.

 

 

Horrible. I've almost forgotten what a warm day feels like. My last 70F+ high temperature was almost 7 months ago.

They say there are two seasons in Houghton: Winters here, and Winters coming.

I admit that I'm biased towards the Keenaw Pennisula because we'd visit my uncle there as a kid.

 

But I really think it's really the perfect area for Jim. http://www.upmls.com/cityview.php?city=Eagle+Harbor

I've got to look at possibilities that are actually possible. Basically 10 months out of the year are perfect in Central WA.

I getcha. Just don't be afraid to look out-of-region. I made the decision to go out-of-region in 1996 when I moved here, and I don't regret it...it was very fun.

 

Here's a link, if you want to give it a look: http://www.cityofhoughton.com

 

Home prices are great, too: http://m.realtor.com/#results?loc=Houghton%2CMI

Harsh winters for sure---great if you're in for that sort of thing. It would totally work for Jim. I have no way of knowing, but I've heard Michigan summers are no picnic, though. Mostly due to the humidity, I think.

I think the city of Houghton MI would be a dream for Jim, ranked as one of the top 100 small towns in America: http://www.cityofhoughton.com

 

Trees are very much like the PNW, it's basically a peninsula that sticks out onto Lake Superior. The snowfall average is over 200" with frequent lake-effect blizzards, and the summer days rarely get past 75 degrees. Plus they get big thunderstorms in the Summer.

 

I've experienced lake effect snowfall, and I've gotta say, there's nothing like it. You can literally see snowfall rates topping 6"/hr on a semi regular basis.

Aren't you the guy who was planning to move to Chelan? That's in Eastern WA.

Yes, but I'm not Jim.

 

The summers in Chelan can get hot/dry at times. I like dry heat, but I'm pretty sure Jim would prefer a cooler, crispier summer w/o the clouds and drizzle.

 

I'm not moving to Michigan or Maine due to their consistently harsh winters. But they're great if you love snow and hate summer heat.

You're going to move??? I guess it makes sense. Are you headed for the land of the frozen tundra?

He wants to move east of the Cascades but stay in WA. Though I think he'd enjoy Maine or Michigan more, as far as climate and home prices go..

Wow, that monster storm over the NE has produced a flurry of wind gusts above 120mph over the mainland of Atlantic Canada..sheesh.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if 150-160mph gusts occurred over the water somewhere given the warm seclusion.

I'm trying to act subdued, but I'm actually bullish on 2014-15. People tend to weight ENSO much too heavily.

 

Arguably, solar and stratosphere-mesosphere forcings are just as important..take 2010-11 as an example. Strong La Niña with a very low TAAM..hence a lot of warm outlooks for the central/eastern US. However, the Solar-Stratospheric forcings won the day. The Sun totally finger banged the tropical pacific.

 

The 2013-14 winter is another good example...why was the Rossby/EAAM regime so stable? You guessed it.

Winters of 1965-66 and 1968-69 were very similar in terms of the QBO, SAO, Solar, ENSO, and AAM components. The winter of 2014-15 should feature all of the same dynamics. The only wild card is the Sun..if the Sun goes nuts it could ruin things.

 

However, the fact that they were very similar supplies a higher level of confidence that 2014-15 will follow in lockstep, at least to an extent..

 

Almost scary how similar they are..2014-15 could be a high confidence forecast:

 

1965-66:

 

http://catchmypicture.com/NcrcvR.jpg

 

1968-69:

 

http://catchmypicture.com/4Tu4Fj.jpg

Top QBO - Solar analogs for next winter are 1965-66 and 1968-69. There are some eerie similarities there.

 

The 1957-58 analog is beginning to look like a no-go after the recent easterly pulsing/lowering at the mesopause..which will precede a flip in the SAO, and QBO.

Where did Flatiron go?

Sure. Clearcut logging has been responsible for many large landslides in the past. When you strip an entire hillside of vegetation it becomes much more vulnerable to that kind of thing. I can tell based on that picture that the area that slid down was part of a clearcut.

 

Hope I'm not in trouble. I'm not trying to offend anyone here.

Definitely. Logging took place here in the earlier years and led to a crapload of landslides along backbone ridge, which is where I live now. You can still see the evidence left behind. It's ashame, some of those trees were 200-300yrs old.

 

Now the remaining big trees are really exposed to the wind. The Derecho/Sandy combo in 2012 took out 50-75% of them. Only 7 remain in the vicinity of my house, only 3 left on my property.

Kinda, OT, but lol @ the GGEM...it's progging 100-120mph winds and 2ft of snow for cape cod..954mb triple phaser.

 

Might be time for a road trip..

Well I have to say that mentioning 68-69 in the PNW thread is well....umm...bold. A truly great winter here in the PNW. People are going to be calling for your head on a platter if we are in our typical El Nino split flow pattern come next January.

If all goes well. . Could easily be another 1994-95.

I agree this is a weak max over all, but I beleave phil is talking about the solar max/+qbo combination being classic pattern wise this winter.

Exactly..ridging is strongly favored over the NPAC in a +QBO..especially during solar maximum. As the +QBO windfield begins to decay during late summer/early autumn, we'll see more Aleutian/NPAC troughing develop..however it's not possible to know exactly when the shift will occur.

 

However, this does not necessarily spell doom for the PNW next winter. In fact, I think there's a 50/50 chance that the Midwest/NE will torch December-January 2014-15. Not a given yet, but definitely possible.