Phil

Disaster over here. A pipe leading into my basement has burst..water shorted out my circuit breaker & everything... I essentially have my own mini Niagara Falls going right now.

Can't help but think the frigid air is responsible..high temp of 7F today.

12z GFS is warm through the run..

Flow turns onshore later in the GFS run, with plenty of precip...the arctic air is bottled up north and spills into the Midwest and East

A wet run in the long range, but the arctic air spills into the Midwest and East.

Nothing for the PNW through hr180.

That is definitely NOT Tallahassee

You've been there? Otherwise I want your night vision goggles.

See the GDOT tag at the bottom of the image?

 

This is a screen grab of a Georgia DOT cam near Atlanta

Ahh ok thanks. My friend told me it was Tallahassee.

Apparently this is Florida. Multiple car crashes (at least 3 in this pic) and snow-covered freeways..

EDIT: Atlanta GA

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_01_2014/post-3375-0-18606100-1390958963.jpg

Why don't you post info like this in the eastern forum?

Sorry, I can stop with the OT posts if necessary.

I guess it's just because I'd be talking to myself over there, and no one wants to listen to my advice on how to grow this community into an American-Wx caliber population.

That is OK.

 

Unlike many others on here... I have loved this winter here. So quiet and enjoyable. Seems like we have been outside all winter. We are heading to Hawaii in 16 days and I am not even sick of winter yet... which I figured I would be at this point.

 

Snow and cold or dry and sunny. Either way I am happy.

 

Awesome. Where in, exactly? I visited to Kauai as a kid, and will never forget it.

Awesome news! I am so excited. <_>

I'm cool with swapping houses if you agree to pay my heating bill..

If the 18z GFS verifies the Great Lakes may set a record for ice coverage. That is crazy cold.

This has been the coldest winter I've ever experienced. My high temp once again failed to get above 0F today. Looks like we're going to get a break from the extreme cold, though.

The "Sun Angle" argument gets old after five years. Tell this to those who live in the mid west or the mid Atlantic, when a mid February arctic event is baring down. I know that the sun can influence marginal events, but the upper atmospheric heating doesn't destroy our chances until mid March.

Exactly. If anything, we have more cold air available now up north than we do n mid December.

If it makes you guys feel any better, I'm still well below average in snowfall so far, and I have patches of bare grass showing. In fact, I'm running behind 2011-12..

Also, the circulation pattern over the Arctic has been fantastic for ice growth! The -DA circulation is pushing the multi-year ice west into the Beaufort Sea. We now have multi-year ice slamming into the Russian coast for the first time in at least a decade:

http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticictn_nowcast_anim30d.gif

So a positive AO keeps artic air locked into Canada and a -AO causes it to *spill* to the deep south? Does this concide with other factors like if it's a -AO and a negative NAO combined that will make it more likely for the East coast to be targeted with a PV?

 

On the other hand if there is a -AO and a -PNA on the West Coast which is the best coast we will have ours?

 

Anyways what is the status of the PNA? I once found a site that had all the ocean telecommunications in one index so I could access whatever I wanted but now when looking for it I couldn't find it.

It's a complicated affair. It doesn't matter whether the overall NAM is + or -, but rather the strength/location of the PV and the height of the PV column.

The tropospheric circulation is determined by a number of factors, including tropical forcings, stratospheric forcings, and solar forcings.

On the other hand, you forecasted a flip to +AO in January with zonal flow and above-normal temperatures across the US.

Not quite. I forecasted a +AO/-EPO through January 15, precluding a nationwide blowtorch, then a PV breakdown/-AO for late January/February/March..which is occurring.

My forecast for a +AO this month was based on a combination of factors that did not quite come together. So the PV ended up being displaced toward the NAO domain, but the NAM was still positive.

But it can't just stay cold in the east for an entire winter during a Neutral ENSO season........or can it

Of course it can...there is nothing random about the climate system. There are obvious reasons why the NPAC ridge has been so prolific this winter.

Those who took into account the state of relevant global forcings in their winter forecasts were able to predict it well in advance.

Meanwhile, those who went with statistical methods (such as precursors to the AO and tropical SST patterns) wound up forecasting a US blowtorch.

If you go back to western and read my winter forecast, you'll see how I was able to correctly forecast this winter, using easy accessible data.

It's not a bad run initially, but the pineapple express takes over after day 10 while the east gets slammed again.

It's actually a good run up until day 10. The evolution is possibly a step in the wrong direction though.

10C 850 mb and a ridge, or a Pineapple express with 6" of Rain. Which one is it on the 00z?

It's not a bad run initially, but the pineapple express takes over after day 10 while the east gets slammed again.

You guys probably don't want to look at the 00z GFS. That model has been flip flopping like a fish out of water.

Well I am sure most meteorologists have more experience than you, especially considering your what, 28-34 in age. I really haven't been able to pinpoint your age, just guessing based on some posts you have made.

I am technically a qualified meteorologist. I have degrees in A.S and Physics + Systems Science from U.M.D.

And yes, I'm 32. I worked for the military right out of the academic arena, and retired happily in 2012.

You would be one of a very select few professioniall/amateur that thinks this.

 

Hell, even Tim would agree that we are due for something, if he wasn't spending so much time and bandwidth to bringing Jim down.

I suspect most meteorologists with heavy physics-based backgrounds will reiterate my position. The forcings/dynamics that modulate the climate system are not random..neither is the system's response (which will vary).

That doesn't mean we understand the whys and hows..otherwise predictions would be a snap.

Has anyone seen the winter storm warning for New Orleans? 1/2" of freezing rain and 1-3" of snow w/ blowing snow a possibility..

It has to happen at some point. If we actually get hit next week we will be getting hit in a time frame that has also struggled mightily in recent years. There is nothing we are more due for than a very cold Jan.

I think the idea that we're "due" for a given regime is baloney. There is nothing random about the climate system, so why treat it like it is?

Looks like I nailed my 10 day forecast: modified arctic air, no significant snow.

You can't nail a forecast for an event that hasn't occurred yet.