FroYoBro

The ECMWF hasn't shown this at all.

I bet it will show up tonight.

I am very surprised that the 00z GFS is still showing the system for Thursday hitting Oregon. I am still thinking this wont verify but its inside 48 hours now.

Dude, it's happening. The only question is how far north the moisture makes it. 

Temperatures basically free falling out here at the moment. 24 currently.

What did you get down to in December?

Be careful Oregon people... the new MM5 NAM shows a very different picture.

 

 

 

 

 

We saw this earlier this year as well.... I think the MM5 was the correct one.   

I will be VERY careful. 

I am liking the spot Portland is in for the next couple of days. Might be a nice mix of cold and moisture. 

The 0z NAM shows snow for most of Oregon Thursday into Thursday night. Portland gets nailed on this run. 

-20c still progged at The Dalles on the 18Z. I think PDX will see highs below 30 tomorrow and Thursday, especially with more cloud cover around potentially.

Yep, I am starting to think that it will be difficult to get any decent lows out of this thing. I don't really care, as long as we get some subfreezing highs and some snow. 

East wind gust of 33 at PDX. Getting 15 mph wind here.

IT'S HAPPENING GUYS. 

Looks like the moisture is stalling over the Eastern metro area. Those areas could get a dusting of snow. 

No... it does that on Thursday not Friday.   Even better!

 

Friday is dry.

 

Saturday looks interesting as usual.

Yep, true. I was looking at the wrong date. 

No one can call this week boring at least. 

The 18z GFS gives most of the Willamette Valley snow (except the Portland area) for Friday. 

Looks like I probably hit my high of 36 degrees. Starting to feel a little bit of an eastern breeze and it's 35 degrees.

I don't think we have mastered the art of weather modeling yet. 

It's pretty surprising to see the temperature continue to climb upwards even with the snow falling. 

Mark mentioned how the models overdid the cold.

Models have overdone the cold air banked up against the east side of the Cascades.  The WRF-GFS showed 5,000′ temps around zero to +5 by this morning on the east side of the north Oregon Cascades.  Instead it’s 13 and 12 at Timberline and Meadows.  Oops…  The other is that models obviously have overdone the cold air at the surface in general.

Pretty good snow shower here. Not really sticking since it is 35. 

I saw 14 snow flakes. OOOOOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The 06z GFS is very similar to the 0z.   <_>

Actually what the 00z Euro is showing is one of the best outlooks I have seen. According to the Wundermap, precipitation stays snow from 10 a.m. Saturday till about 2 a.m. Sunday. I would take that and yes it would be epic and memorable.

Could I get a link to the wundermap?

Sounds like there was some new twist in the 00z data this afternoon that made all of the 00z runs go decidedly warmer at the last minute. Bummer...

Euro is still pretty D**n cold. It won't make a huge difference. 

So, did the Euro stay as cold as previous runs, or did it move toward the GFS?

It looks a little warmer. 

The Canadian gives Portland two snowstorms. This is going to be a close call over the next few days. WEENIE HEART ATTACK.

no way they go to 41 tomorrow.

I wouldn't be surprised to see PDX hit 40 tomorrow. Tomorrow is a tricky forecast. If the east wind takes a while to get going, the sun could get us fairly warm tomorrow. Tough call. 

I hate this place sometimes.

Take it to your therapist man. We are discussing weather. 

NAM is always too cold beyond 24 hours in these situations.   

Alright. I was just letting Andrew know that the nam hasn't backed off. 

Fascinated to see the GEM and Ensembles now...

 

The NAM must have been backing off too though. It only showed 850s at about 11C for PDX and SLE...Still very cold at the surface though.

Nah, the NAM brought the -15 line right to Portland.