Abbotsford_wx

Interesting, but I thought the CFSv2 was garbage at predicting ENSO. Unless it's showing something we want to see, of course.

Nice early fall day... 46/75, mostly sunny, crisp and breezy. East wind helping our temp this afternoon, but still managed a cool morning low.

Does Vancouver really average 5C colder than Portland at the 850 mb level? I've been wondering because these graphs have shown the same discrepancy all summer long. Vancouver always seems to be warmer relative to normal than Portland.

The map does show a warm sector here, but when you average it out it's been near to slightly below normal west of the Cascades. It's certainly been cool east of the Cascades.

51 here, though it rained most of the night. It's bright and sunny this morning, however. With the warm period upcoming we'll likley finish around +1F for September. I'm at 2.26" of rain for the month. Normal for September is 2.97". Still a chance of reaching that.

Cliff Mass ran some model simulations that showed an increase of 1-2F over land (I'm assuming that was for SEA). http://cliffmass.blogspot.ca/2016/09/the-blob-is-back.html It's not a linear relationship... ie, if the blob anomaly is +4C, our observed temperature increase would only be a fraction of that, but that might still be enough to screw us during marginal snow situations. I would think the effects would be most profound right by the coast, but there should be effects everywhere west of the Cascades.

Lucky. I remember the snow here was completely gone by Jan 10th.

Really? January 1993 was top tier up here. 20" of snow (three solid weeks of snowcover and no rain in the first 18 days of the month) 11 sub-freezing highs Low of 2.5F Monthly mean of 29.8F Actually, that event began in late December, and there had already been some decent snow earlier in the month. 37" of snow in total over those two months.

That's the spring forecast. Our winter is Nov-Dec.

Yeah. I didn't look at temperature. That would be harder to quantify.

It's been pretty much the worst ever up here no matter how you slice the data... Worst four year period on recond Worst five year period on record Worst six year period on record Worst seven year period on record Worst eight year period on record It only becomes second worst when you reach nine years. (For the curious, the worst 9 year period was 1997 to 2005.)

Does it really matter? I've looked at the numbers locally and I haven't noticed much benefit to having a stronger Nina. Snowfall seems to peak at an ONI of about -1.0, but neutral is almost just as good. All of the Nina hype just typically leads to disappointment. 1998/99 and 1999/2000 were both lame. 2007/2008 was okay for northern areas, but there was little in the way of sustained cold or snowcover. 2010/11 was probably the best of the bunch, but it didn't hold a candle to 2008/2009. There were also several good winters in the early-to-mid 1990's that were neutral.

I think Monday could hit mid 80's. Pretty bold call, though.

93 in Abbotsford today, breaks the record of 92 from 1986.

Abbotsford is at 67.6 through yesterday. That ties with 2014 for the second warmest on record. The record is 68.4 from 2004. I bet it'll be close - it just depends on how the weekend turns out. If it's as troughy as the GFS, then no.

A low of 67 here... already 82 at 9:35 am.

Even with temps in the mid 90's and no A/C in the car I never felt particularly sweaty today. Hot, but not unbearably so.

YXX is still 84 at 11 pm. They hit 94 today. Oddly, Environment Canada is predicting tomorrow to be 5 degrees cooler than today, and Saturday about 8 degrees cooler.

Not at all. Usually between 3 and 4 pm. I think we could see upper 90's in places today.

Crazy how cool it is down there. It was 90 here at 11 am. Currently 91, so the climb seems to have slowed a bit.

My temp went from 76 to 90 in the last hour.

Yeah, same up here. We would normally stay below 80 on a day with any marine cloud intrusion, but we hit 82 today.

Yup, today will under-perform for temperature. Yesterday was 81 here. The forecast for today is 82, but we're running about 3.5 degrees off yesterday's pace.

Wow. Not quite so bad here, but still mighty dry. The last ground soaking rain was over a month ago.

Yesterday was a -1.1, our first negative departure since July 15th. This morning's low was a +3.