wxmet

Doesn't really have a choice with this jet orientation

Snow cover mostly likely

TPV cell just to the north lol

Looks like a good run for PDX out to 96hr. Eastern gradients eating the precip over W. WA.

Low is much further north even though the shortwave is dropping down faster. The block over Alaska isn't as strong which is allowing the system to come further north.

Things look better so far, let's hope it continues as more frames come out. The trough is pushing down the B.C. a bit faster.

By 63hr, things are speeding up a bit and now a little ahead of 18z and 12z.

GFS is slightly lagging with the upper low over Canada compared to 18z out to 36hr.

GFS 00z is running. Primary focus will be on the low over the Northwestern Territories and the speed of its evolution as it moves south.

Lol Icon gonna Icon

NAM 00z appears to be faster with the trough coming down than 12z but is slightly slower than 18z.

The ECMWF is the overall better performing model than the GFS independent of the few situations where the GFS might have performed better. We don't hate it but it is very close. Any further north and we'll easily be in the warm/rain sector of a Pacific storm.

There are quite a few weather stations on the northern Canadian Northwest Territories coast. I wonder if better sampling has led to this shift in the models.

When I compared the trough over the B.C. from 00z to tonight's 18z on the ECMWF, each run has weakened the western extent of the TPV. The question is when does the weakening stop?

You know how this forum works.

Everyone needs to calm down. It’s just one Euro run. 18z EPS will be out soon and we also have the 00z runs later tonight.

It should be an axiom that all lows trend north in the PNW.

Just have to hope the ECMWF 00z doesn’t take the low into Vancouver

Lol. Your location would probably be fine.

More room for a system to come north with a weaker western extent of the TPV.

Glad my subscription is coming to an end. Maue will not see another dollar from me.

ECMWF 18z not even running on weathermodels. Such a slow site.