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Everything posted by wxmet
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The ECMWF is slower with the shortwave dropping down the B.C. which allows the Pacific systems to come further north as a result.
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Good thing the GFS is lost. This suppression is a bit too much. The only saving grace this run was the Arctic front and c-zones.
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TPV prevents the system from coming north.
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Two inches total into Seattle by Wednesday
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Past few runs of the GFS and NAM have shown the C-zone developing early Monday
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Sorry for posting the wrong RGEM run. It's late. Here's the right one:
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ICON 06z
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NAM wants a more aggressive Arctic front with better off-shore connection like the RGEM
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Quite a few big hitters among the EPS ensembles
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30/21 on Thursday here with snow forecast for Saturday and Sunday.
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This forum is now in storm mode
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The medium range is the ECMWF's deadly range. It's more likely the GFS, CMC et al will come around its solution than the other way around.
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So either things get suppressed to the south or we get a historic snowstorm. Lots to work out in the coming week.
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With a meridional jet orientation and divergence within the jet left exit region there is room for the low to track north and precip to extend well into Washington.
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That low will have room to track north as the flow is basically southwest to northeast however cold air is in place thanks to the TPV.
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More of Oregon will be able to cash in as another low approaches this time with more cold air at 150hr.
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Euro is a little too close for comfort at this range. A lot of this is going to come down to the timing of the shortwave to the north as to how far the low will be able to get.
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This is different. The shortwave is still digging south due to the TPV circulation.
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What do you mean? This is great lol
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Friday system is further north on this run. Would be interesting if we could get a partial or complete phase with the TPV shortwave dropping down.