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Brian_in_Leavenworth

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Posts posted by Brian_in_Leavenworth

  1. 33 minutes ago, Phil said:

    Yes early indications lean to a second year La Niña, or possibly cold neutral. In my opinion, at least.

    How are 2nd year Nina's different, especially in late Fall/ early Winter, considering that in the 2nd year, I assume the atmosphere is already starting in a Nina regime, as opposed to being in transition during the same time in a first year Nina, especially considering a first year Nina is often coming off of a Nino regime?

  2. 2 hours ago, bainbridgekid said:

    Didn't Whatcom county have 3 or 4 major snowstorms in December 1996? Would they all have had much wind?

    I know they also got a lot with the overrunning event in December 1998 so that seems like maybe another possibility?

    Yeah we had snow starting Dec 21st.  Never forget that day.  Had a Christmas party with friends, and helped set it up.  Was hoping we would leave the party to snow falling, and that is exactly what happened.  Had snow again several times, and then had a huge dump late in the month.  Pineapple express met the cold air.  Had several feet of snow when it was done.  Got my picture in the Bellingham Herald looking at my car after the snow collapsed the car port.

    Areas south got their first snow on the 26th.  Victoria, one of the least snowiest places in Canada, had 26 inches with the last storm

    That was the classic example of cold air being drawn into incoming systems. I remember after Christmas the forecast was for warmer temps with rain, but suddenly the models forecasted the storms to go further South, keeping the cold air in place.  That was one of the most exciting changes in the forecast that I have ever seen.  Sort of a reverse of the January 2011 storm that ended up North and we got mostly rain instead of copious amounts of snow.

    • Like 4
  3. 10 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

    Snow stopped a couple hours ago, but it lasted long enough to him give me 24 hours of snow, 9” of accumulation, and a high that topped out at 31F.

    In the afternoon I went out to Deception Pass where there was 12-14” of snow all the way down to the beach. I don’t know when they would have gotten more snow there. It was stunningly beautiful with seals and eagles enjoying the snow. Also kind of scary walking around as trees and branches were falling left and right.

    Oh, and I used Christmas lights to write “snow” in cursive back in December. It appears the calling card worked although it was a bit delayed.

    765E8CF9-03BF-40C9-B75F-8C006040F75E.thumb.jpeg.519a2eefb0386408760bfe1eb39668c3.jpeg74AA4FEE-E087-411F-9154-F7D024130538.thumb.jpeg.34855d83f45a30453fd04b9f1b02e085.jpeg1EF082B7-2339-461D-B7CC-F73E2E00EF64.thumb.jpeg.1c221fa202f0a80c595221dd2f17166f.jpeg

    12 to 14 at Deception Pass?  WOW.  I grew up there, on Fidalgo Island (Dewey Beach area), just a couple of miles from the bridge.  That is a tremendous amount of snow for that area.  I don't know if I ever saw that much snow in one storm all the years that I lived there, but of course I wasn't measuring snow back then.

  4.  

    29 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

    Its all been said before.    

    And I have not said anything about what the models show after Monday... there is no point to that  right now.   And I fully recognize the historic nature of this event and love seeing all the posts.   I truly enjoy this WAY more than just having snow here.  100%... without a question.   

    Through Monday we still have lots of potential so its worth discussing.    I understand my history probably precludes me from being able to discuss the details of a transition out of cold without ruffling feathers.   That is my fault.    I am  reading the room as best I can.    Which probably still sucks! 

    Agree 100%.  Even though I average a lot of snow here, we actually had less snow than just about everyone on this board.  Which makes sense, as just about everyone averages more precip than I do, so when there is snow there, often you get more than I do.

    And I am 100% o.k. with that.

    In fact, I enjoyed seeing everyone else get a lot of snow way more than the nice little snow than we had here.

    Its all of your turns to get ❄.  Hoping you get more.

    • Like 4
  5. 9 minutes ago, Fircrest said:

    Since you live over there, I'm curious what you think Stevens Pass will be like around noon Sunday.  My daughter and some friends are taking a quick 2 day trip to Leavenworth, leaving Seattle around noon Sunday and returning Monday night. I am hoping they won't get stuck with the pass closed.

    Sunday should be a much better day to drive, being in between storms.  Once in awhile they close the pass for avalanche control, but usually late at night when traffic is slow.  Stevens will get a lot of snow overnight and early tomorrow, but nothing out of the ordinary.  Guessing it will still be compact snow by Sunday, so having proper tires/chains is strongly advised.

    They could also take Snoqualmie Pass and Blewett Pass if those roads look better.  Worth checking on.  

    Whenever anyone from here goes to Seattle, we almost always take Blewett/Snoqualmie instead of Steven's, a bit faster, especially Seattle and anywhere south.  North Seattle is a toss-up time wise.

    We are expecting snow late Sunday and into Monday, so going back Monday night should be better than Monday morning

    And BTW we just moved to phase 2, so starting Sunday our restaurants can be open at 25% capacity

    • Like 2
  6. We get a lot of Winter Weather Advisories and  Winter Storm Watches/Warnings.

    So they won't issue a warning until 24 hours or less before the event.  A warning means severe weather is happening or is imminent, hence the 24 hour rule.  Also, before 24 hours things can and do change.

    They also have to be careful when you have back to back storms.  They don't want confusion when doing that.  One storm at a time.  When 2 storms are close, you might have an advisory for the first storm and then they might skip the watch and go into the warning for the next storm.

    So don't expect a warning for the late Friday/Saturday storm until early Friday.

    Maybe I am wrong and they will issue a warning sooner, but I doubt it, especially with a weaker storm first

     

    • Like 1
  7. 1 hour ago, thickhog said:

    Someone tell me that the WRF is the best close-range model. 

    I use the 4k WRF ensemble mean for snow forecasts for my area, and it is often spot on, way more accurate than the NWS.  At least 6 times this year the WRF ensemble mean got our snowfall exactly right when the NWS was way off.  Sometimes they are both in agreement, and sometimes the WRF is way off too, but a far better record than the NWS.  But the WRF ensemble mean is only for certain locations, not a map of the whole area, and only goes out about 48 hours.  It is also not available until sometime after the run ends.

    I don't know how accurate it is for other areas, but I my area is a particular tough area to forecast for, as often the temps are marginal for snow, and we have quite a large precip gradient in my area.

    UW WRF plumes (washington.edu)

    • Like 1
  8. 5 minutes ago, 12345WeatherNerd said:

    Do you guys think that route 2 will close by Monday?

     

    Do you mean highway 2, Steven's Pass?  No doubt they will get a lot of snow.  They do close it sometimes for avalanche control, though they try to time that to be during slow traffic times, like late at night.  Probably will end up needing chains though during the heavy snow 

    • Like 1
  9. 7 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

    lol I just noticed something

    
    ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH
    FRIDAY MORNING...

    Shouldn't that go into effect now? By Thursday morning, as long as nothing changes, it should be a warning. 

    I get a lot of winter storms here.  They won't upgrade a watch to a warning until 24 hours or less before a storm.  It must be imminent by definition.

    • Like 1
  10. 1) Here is the arctic airmass currently in the Fraser Plateau of BC compared to the ones @ the onset of the Jan 2020 and Feb 2019 cold spells. The 2019 and 2020 graphics were the day of the first event. Case in point, arctic air is building sooner and deeper this go around. #wawx
    2) By sooner, I mean in relation to the "event." Keep in mind however that each one of these events was different and will not play out exactly the same. I am optimistic though seeing the deeper cold air begin to pool against the southern mountains of BC at this point in the game
     
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    • Like 7
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