Brian_in_Leavenworth

1 minute ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Jesus, big "reload" coming around Day 11/12. (I say "reload" because the cold air is already fully loaded and not going anywhere for the entire PNW. There's just somehow even more on the way.)

 

That's just insane.  An incredible block, and the jetstream underneath pointed right at us.  Each storm will bury us and draw in more bitterly cold air 

-33 in Spokane.

9 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Sorry folks. I will just downvote his reposts. I actually liked Michael a lot before this.

That's fair.  

28 minutes ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

Any Fraser winds with this? Wondering about wind chill up in Bellingham and whether I need to prepare my kiddo up at Western. Has been a really mild fall up there so far, and she has no idea about those Fraser winds.

Having lived in Bellingham from 1984 through 2013, those winds are no joke, though the worst winds are north of town, especially north of the Smith road.  It may keep Bellingham from getting a lot of snow, but it feels pretty nasty when it's that cold and the wind is blowing.  I'm guessing a lot of kids are wearing shorts these days.  They may be in for a rude awakening.

2 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Genocide Mike!

I think we're tired of you injecting your politics into every tweet of his that's posted.  Knock it off and keep it to weather.

Just now, MWG said:

Holy cannoli finally made it to the last page.....maybe? I'm just glad tomorrow is Friday and I can read this forum more with a bottle of wine and popcorn!

By the time you read this, we'll be at page 155.

1 minute ago, westcoastexpat said:

GEM says 55 degrees or 10, no in-between 

Perfect example of why a mean can sometimed be worthless.  

Just now, snow_wizard said:

At least the GEM ensemble lends no support to the operational GEM.

Conflicting reports!

6 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

Wow

How often do you see such big changes in an ensemble?  And it's just 6 hours ago.

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Definitely going in the direction of the GEM but not as extreme in lifting the block out.    

For comparison here is the operational at 192.

9 hours ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

If and when there is undercutting, that isn't always a bad thing. It can lead to really big snowstorms.  So much of that depends on where the systems go.  North of the lows stay snow, and maybe a lot of it. South of course would be warmer

I believe December 2008 had undercutting systems, as well as late December 1996.  January 2011 was supposed to be an epic snowstorm, but the system went too far North.

What he said.  Oh wait, that's me.

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I think the screaming message is all 3 models have had a really good run today.

There has been mediocre runs lately, but none did what the GEM did.  This was totally out of left field.

13 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I love how people are ignoring the GFS in favor of a bad GEM run. 

Why not?  We ignored the 12z GFS when the 12Z GEM was so good.

2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Mother of all baroclinic zones on the GEM.

At least it's dynamic....

Imagine this storm being further south

Interesting that the GEM, while a huge step back, still has an awful lot of real cold air just across the border.  

5 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Interesting that I don't hear the 500hPa temps mentioned.  Good tweet from Maue.  The 12Z Euro was Siberian air, true polar vortex

He said a polar vortex episode would start at -40C.  Here is a map showing -42 to -45C in Washington

Interesting that I don't hear the 500hPa temps mentioned.  Good tweet from Maue.  The 12Z Euro was Siberian air, true polar vortex

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Different evolution though.   It only goes out to 180 hours (12Z and 00Z runs).

Icon at 180 looks almost exactly like the 12z GFS at hour 192

Just now, SpaceRace22 said:

I posted that well before 147, sue me.

Wasn't trying to be critical, just curious, as maybe you saw a map past hour 147.

5 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

This ICON run is about to be better than the 12z Euro.

What hour? Hour 147 is further east.  Arctic air to the north, yes, and colder than last nights.  But it looks like it's not quite as good asn12z

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

There was a ton of snow in western WA.

Not in Whatcom County.  Wind gust of over 100 MPH.  Not much snow at all.

13 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

There hasn't been anything regionwide bringing widespread highs in the low 20s and lows around 10 or colder in the lowlands since 1998...definitely overdue for something like that. 

But it's not like the globe is too warm to produce another top tier blast. 

2008 had temps below 5 in Bellingham where I lived at the time, and I think Randy may have gotten below zero.

We were quite cold in Leavenworth last December, some places in town got to about -10.  Of course we are colder here anyway, and I have seen temps go to around 0 or maybe -1 or -2, but locals who have been here longer than me said it was the coldest temps in a really long time.

8 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

Cliff's model is not onboard.

Based on the GFS.  Wonder what it would look like if it was based on the Euro.

13 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

As a beaver fan, I'm rooting for Michigan. I dislike both teams though, but the huskies leaving the pac12 will make me forever strongly dislike them.

Huskies left because the Pac 12 was awful in general as far as money and exposure were concerned.  So many games playes late at night where nobody back east was watching.  Hard to recruit and hard to consistently be national title contenders, and don't forget the two most visible schools, USC and UCLA had already decided to leave.

Don't blame the Huskies because the PAC-12 was terribly ran.  Actually the fault of all the schools.  Oregon left at the same time for the same reason.