Brian_in_Leavenworth

6 minutes ago, Timmy said:

Ski resorts may be able to open if this run verifies 

Many if not all up here already are, but obviously need more.

1 minute ago, Phil said:

If the 00z EPS makes a significant move (beyond the swath of the previous 2-3 runs) then I’ll definitely be interested.

It’s not impossible the 00z GFS is right. ️ 

Truth.  But it is interesting how both the GDPS and the GFS suddenly went arctic after being rather pedestrian for several runs.  

51 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Yea I know. I mainly like Bozeman for the high quality amenities not available in many smaller towns. I briefly looked at brand new construction in Leavenworth. Nice spot but a bit small for me. 

Although I love living here, sometimes I feel like I would trade some of the snow for a colder climate than here with snow on the ground for a longer time.  We generally have snow on the ground for about 3 months, but we usually get a bit of rain as well as all the snow.  

There are things to be said for a bigger community.  We have to drive down to Wenatchee for any real shopping, except groceries.  At least we have lots of restaurants.  And if I was single, a bigger town might also be more appealing.  

Are you seriously thinking about Bozeman?   I'm glad I moved here, which was my goal for awhile, but I know for many moving isn't as easy as it sounds.  

1 hour ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Time to move to Bozeman

Lots of places get a lot of snow without moving that far away.  Though Montana is pretty great.  And if you want the extreme cold, Bozeman would be hard to beat.  

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

And yet most on here are in a sour mood this morning? Looks good to me! 

I'm beyond the Pepto.  Don't know what to call those colors.  Probably won't verify, but it looks good for me for decent snow at least.

12 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Looks pretty good.  How about around day 10

It is always better for improvements in the short run, but even at day 10 you can see the Kona low and the retrogression taking shape.

16 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

EPS is bad it's over. Time to call it a year hopefully next year will be better.

29 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

iFred gives out ban threats like Oprah giving out cars.

25 minutes ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

They had to get a 1st down.

This.  Injury was just bad luck.

They didn't kneel in this EXACT same situation on 3rd down against Oregon in the PAC-12 Championship Game, and he ran it for a 1st down.

Let's hope it doesn't turn to this:

Here's another classic, created by Rob (Gradient Keeper).

25 minutes ago, SeanNyberg said:

Constantly telling weather enthusiasts that it’s difficult for snow storms to setup in the PNW or that longterm models aren’t reliable for detailed forecasting…

 

It’s amazing how clear it is that some folks on here are just insufferable in real life.

”my son is going to play football in college!”

- you know only 1.6% of players ever make it to the NFL

”yes, literally everyone knows that. Not a single person needs to be reminded of that.”

EDITED:

Agree.  

1 minute ago, lowlandsnow said:

If only the control went out another 2 days

The weeklies that we will see tomorrow is the EPS from this run extended to 46 days 

43 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think pretty much any microclimate in AK is good enough for most people who love snow, except parts of the Aleutians and the extreme SE.

Valdez averages 300" of snow every year, despite not being bitterly cold.  Never been, but the pictures of the Sound and the mountains look gorgeous.

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think they're the same.  They are a google / ECMWF collaboration.

No they're not. Spire is based on their satellite data and is a separate company.  I'm not even sure their forecasts are AI.  They may cooperate with ECMWF, but aren't the same.  Spire just started their model about a month ago.  https://spacewatch.global/2023/11/spire-global-launches-high-resolution-weather-forecast/

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That's still the 12z.  I just posted the 0z, but the pretty graphics won't be out for a while.

Spire and graohcast are not the same model.  Graohcast is a Google thing and Spire is a different company 

1 hour ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

And even the GFS at face value is seriously unimpressive (particularly south of Bellingham)

Not sure why anyone would take any of the operational models at face value beyond about 5 days or so. The pro mets forecasting for longer ranges and the CPC use ensembles, not the operationals.

29 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Horrible bust.  I don't remember that at all.  The month had been cold all the way through so the bigger cold late wasn't a total shock.

The big bust in 1983 was the White Christmas forecast bust.  I'm still bitter about it 40 years later.

I was in high school and living in Anacortes. The cold air was in place, a wet system was coming in.  The Seattle P-I has a big headline about having a white Christmas.  The Seahawks won a playoff game that day, Winter Storm Warnings were issued for 6 to 8 inches of snow by Christmas morning.  All was right with the world.

Everyone has gone to bed and I heard a pitter patter.  I was old enough to know it wasn't Santas reindeer.  

It was rain.  

I'm guessing the storm took a more northerly track and the low went to our North and brought warm air.

7 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Phil says Putin has all our cold air

Scandinavia is getting the bitter cold. Temps as cold as 30C below normal.

59 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah, it's like 2-3 sliders and then the ridge is too close to us for much action. The overall pattern/troughing does seem to be trending west so we need to hope that continues in the long range. 

The EPS shows that ridge disappearing after a few days and then it looks like the jetstream is aimed toward the PNW.  Looks like at face value a good mountain snow pattern.  

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

Worth noting relatively few EPS members get real cold into BC. It’s actually more of a pacific airmass.

Makes for a lot of snow for me.  And I assume the mountains too.  Might end up with normal snowfall for both December and January, which I wouldn't have expected this winter.

Nobody's mentioned the weeklies, so here are some maps.  Notice the colder temps anomalies go all the way to the end of the 46 day period.  Doesn't look arctic but maybe good for the mountains.  Hopefully comes with decent precipitation.  Also note that each image in this map is a running 5 day average 

Here's the PNA