Brian_in_Leavenworth

1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

 

"The overall week-2 forecast has continued to grow cooler relative to prior forecasts. Above-normal temperatures remain favored across the Great Lakes and the Northeast. But parts of the Pacific Northwest are now favored to see below-normal temperatures during week-2.

Statistical guidance and short-term  biased corrected tools are significantly colder relative to dynamical  reforecast tools. There is therefore quite a bit of uncertainty regarding the  temperature forecast for the period"

"The overall week-2 forecast has continued to grow cooler relative to prior forecasts. Above-normal temperatures remain favored across the Great Lakes and the Northeast. But parts of the Pacific Northwest are now favored to see below-normal temperatures during week-2.

Statistical guidance and short-term  biased corrected tools are significantly colder relative to dynamical  reforecast tools. There is therefore quite a bit of uncertainty regarding the  temperature forecast for the period"

1 hour ago, Slushy Inch said:

CPC is behind

Yesterday's ensemble runs that this is based off of shows the jetstream aimed at the NW.  Nothing remarkable but not dry at all.  

25 minutes ago, Phil said:

I think you and Flatiron will be the first to score. Actually I think he’s already scored but will prob score again. Then maybe me?

Unless the +EPO stretch is marginally cold enough for someone like @Brian_in_Leavenworth to score a slush bomb beforehand.

And despite overall warm temps in December, we have had more than 30 inches this month.  Much has melted, so the snow cover is lower than normal.

17 minutes ago, Phil said:

I think you and Flatiron will be the first to score. Actually I think he’s already scored but will prob score again. Then maybe me?

Unless the +EPO stretch is marginally cold enough for someone like @Brian_in_Leavenworth to score a slush bomb beforehand.

Normal temps are enough for me. Colder is nice too, but we don't need colder anomalies until late January, and even then only a couple of degrees below normal.  We average 94" of snow every year 

1 hour ago, AlTahoe said:

Yikes. models now go to mid Jan and we are still waiting on our first storm of the winter. So much for enhanced Stj, El Nino etc. 

 

Interesting that the CPC has a different outlook, at least for week 2.

4.5" of snow yesterday afternoon and overnight.  Not bad, good to see snow on the ground again.  

Actually we are over 30 inches for the month, which is pretty close to normal.

This is the current pattern.

This is what the EPS shows in week 2.  Not arctic, but not the current pattern either.

White Christmas is saved in Leavenworth. Expecting 4-6" during the day and evening tomorrow.

Actually we've had close to normal snowfall for December as of the 24th.  Two storms over a foot each are what had made December snowfall close to normal, plus a couple of smaller storms and what's coming tomorrow will make it normal.

However, the warm temps have melted most of it, so it seems as if snowfall is below normal. Snowcover is for sure below normal though. Will be nice to see snowfall during Christmas day.  About the 3rd Christmas in a row with snow falling during the day.  Mostly in the afternoon, but it's still nice.

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Indeed... that is the double-edged sword of over-controlling.    Losing a forested area to fire is just part of nature's way of making a healthier forest. The forest is not actually destroyed even though we mourn it as destroyed because we view things through the lens of our short time here.  

In Leavenworth there is a display Downtown about forest fires.  It mentions how the early settlers easily traversed through the forests because the trees were more spread apart and there wasn't a lot of dense underbrush.

Then came decades of putting out every fire.  In 1994, there was several major fires around Leavenworth, the entire town was evacuated, and fire crews from all around the nation came to help, thousands of firefighters. 

When it was done, they found a tree that had burned, and the tree rings showed that it had survived fires about every 10 years, until the late 1800's, then there was no fire for over 100 years until 1994. By then there were so many trees and dense underbrush that the fire was extremely hot, and it could not survive.

The fires that it had survived previously were less intensive, encountered fewer trees and less underbrush, and the tree easily survived.  The fire effectively reduced the underbrush and got rid of dead and dying trees.  That is what a healthy forest us supposed to look like.

3 hours ago, Slushy Inch said:

Every run shows more and more retrogression.

Canadian as well, from last night

2 minutes ago, MossMan said:

That would be a little too much for me. I’d rather be there on a random winter Weekday morning at daybreak or after dark heavy snow falling.

That's a good option.  

21 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Very crowded!

This is how crowded it can get

1 hour ago, Phil said:

It’s not great, but not getting worse, at least. Thanks for asking. Numbness has begun to subside slightly, thanks to corticosteroid injection, but am going in for a second injection on the 12th since portions of the pain and numbness were untouched by the first one.

Started PT last week, seems to be helping somewhat but honestly at this rate the recovery will take 6+ months and I don’t know if I have the patience for that.

If I have one more setback, doc will recommend surgical options. Because it’s a threshold case as is.

That sounds like a typical progression.  Surgery is if all else fails, or it's an emergency.  And I am guessing this would be the last cortisone injection.

Keep us up to date!

30 minutes ago, Phil said:

Nope.

Worst possible pattern for W-Canada cold loading.

Good news is there will be more snow in the mountains this weekend and Leavenworth and large parts of Eastern Washington are also supposed to get snow.  Southern third of Eastern Washington probably wont, save for the hills.  May not last long, but it's something. 

How's your back doing?

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The WRF nailed it. Thank you cliff mass you amazing husky weather savant. 

I have found for here at least that the WRF and the 1 1/2 version especially are quite good with snow amounts.  Also the WRF ensemble mean is really good too.  I often use that instead of the NWS forecast. 

NWS did say that some models were showing 2" and others 20".  Differences are when it turns over to rain.  So a real forecast dilemma.  Well see what the final totals are.

21 minutes ago, smerfylicious said:

Perfect time to relax with my favorite Leavenworth webcam:
 

I do wish they'd invest in making the pedestrian street more of a woonerf-style, instead of it clearly having been a 2 way road through the heart for the last 40 years. Why pedestrianize it if you're not going to make it feel more pedestrian friendly? Just feels like I'm walking in a road when I'm there. Any ideas @Brian_in_Leavenworth

There has been talk about doing just that, and they've done surveys.  Getting rid of the curb by raising the road to curb level and making it more aesthetically pleasing will hopefully happen. And also talk about moving the gazebo to be more in the street so it's more centered and people could gather all around instead of just in front.   That would also give more room for sledders on the hill.

But bureaucracy is pretty slow unfortunately.

9 minutes ago, Phil said:

How do you get a high wind watch for 50mph gusts? That’s barely wind advisory criteria which is nationally standardized.

Guessing wet grounds and maybe trees that still have leaves can cause more problems than otherwise.  

Another example is that our criteria here in  Leavenworth for WSW's and WWA's is often lowered for the first winter storm of the year, so the context can alter their criteria a bit.  

Just a guess though 

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