bud2380

Euro keeps trying to reel me back in. Im Most interested in that lead wave of precip that the Euro holds together all the way to the MS River whereas other models dry up in western or central Iowa.

About ready to throw in the towel up here. Trends tonight were bad for pretty much the entire state of Iowa. Unless the Euro provides some new optimism, this just doesn’t look like it’s gonna get this far north.

Not feeling good about a northern shift. Still plenty of time but models have been consistent with the further South solution.

Next Thursday on the GFS. Active weather continues.

Slight tick NW on the GFS this run. A little better for MBY. 75 miles further NW and then I'll really be happy.

Ok 18z GFS time. I'm ready for a 150 mile shift north to throw a huge wrench into this thing. LOL.

DMX AFD - They outline what I was talking about earlier with that moisture in NE and how it just doesn't shift east into Iowa. Right now they are not too optimistic for those near Des Moines, but better chances in for southern/SE Iowa. Similar to yesterdays data, there remains an inverted trough extending north into the Missouri River Valley by 12z Monday with the first push of moisture. As the main upper level wind fields associated with the strong jet max round the base of the trough Monday afternoon, the low will deepen more rapidly between 18z Monday into 18z Tuesday. As this transition occurs, the forcing will wane across Nebraska while the main system becomes the focus of lift/forcing farther south into Missouri/southern/southeast Iowa where a more pronounced deformation axis is favored to develop. An analysis of ensemble member grouping shows that the GFS ensemble is clustering higher snowfall farther north into southern Iowa, despite the deterministic run showing the heaviest snowband in central to northeast Missouri. The Euro, however shows more snow farther north with the deterministic solution vs member spread and into southern/southeast Iowa.

Pretty serious wording by DVN in their afternoon AFD. - Potential strong winter storm early next week Early next week: Global models consistent in tracking a strengthening Panhandle Hook cyclone from the southern Plains to near St. Louis to northern Indiana. This "golden path" historically has brought the forecast area heavy snowfall. The ECMWF/GFS deepens the low pressure system to 977 mb as it tracks into the Great Lakes region by Tuesday. This will be accompanied by a potent upper level trough/closed low with intense forcing.

Model tracking will really start to get fun when we get inside 84 hours and we can look at the NAM, RDPS and 6z/18z Euro runs.

850 and 925mb temps well below freezing, yet surface temps above freezing by 2-3 degrees in many locations. Just seems unusual to have such warm surface temperatures, with such favorable upper air temps. Not that it can't happen, but sure seems like once the snow starts falling these temps should crash down a few degrees at least.

Looking at 10:1 ratios just to get an idea of where the heavier bands of snow are falling. Takes it right through the DVN forecast area. Just need a little more cold air to work it's way in and ratios will improve. It's not often we get significantly less than 10:1 ratios here, especially in January. So it's possible 10:1 gets us closer to expected totals anyways.

Similar in many ways to the 00z run, just lowered amounts pretty much everywhere. Not a bad run for my area though, however I'm still hoping it inches further NW and draws in a little more cold air.

CMC Ensembles go south, GFS ensembles go north. This morning DVN called the model runs "psychotic", LOL. Probably a good term. Deterministic medium range run-to- runs and variability remain psychotic, with the ensemble means the way to lean for some comfort for now.

Whoa! Was not expecting to see that. You just gave me more optimism up here, LOL. Dangerous thing to have at 120+ hours out.

One thing that is showing up consistently on almost all models is this lead wave of energy that extends even into southern SD, but this piece of energy weakens dramatically and doesn't really shift east. Instead it seems to get swalloped up by the energy to the south. Normally from here you would expect to see a northeast movement to the precip or ENE at least, but it doesn't exactly pan out that way. I think the storm slows down a little here and reorganizes while it strengthens further south, pulling the snow shield with it. We'll see if the 00z Euro was an aberration or it holds onto a further north solution. But the models, outside of the Euro, right now favor areas south of Iowa.

UK really takes this south. Ends here, so can't tell what happens exactly, but you can anticipate it would take it into the OHV vs. the GL.

UK rolling in. 120 hours.

That would be completely insane if KS & MO are getting hit with all this snow while areas to the north all the way up to Canada have bare ground.

Models right now are showing snow falling with temps in the 30's, based on the GFS snow ratios are worse than 10:1. This is going to be a very wet, heavy snow for Missouri for sure.

The Canadian definitely went south from the 00z run. And increased totals dramatically in parts of KS & MO.

On the whole the GFS seemed to be further NW with the snow shield this run vs. the 00z run. Not by much though.

Close up of the GFS. Don't need much of a shift north to get Iowa back in the game. But the GFS continues to favor a southern track.

Kansas is the place to be this run.

GFS staying further south than the Euro.

Some modest totals, but here it is.