bud2380

GFS continues to be further north than the Euro

Des Moines AFD Attention then turns to a strong PV anomaly for Friday and into Saturday. This is expected to result in rather deep trough, and strong jet dynamics capable of creating a robust surface cyclone. There is still a considerable amount of difference among ensemble members, as well as difference among long term deterministic model solutions for this system. Earlier runs favored Saturday morning and afternoon for precipitation across northern Iowa, but now is showing a trend to a Friday afternoon-evening arrival. The 12z deterministic ECMWF remains further south with the system and its strong deformation zone axis, which could present accumulating snow as far south Hwy. 20. The GFS remains further northward, with the heavier accumulations more in Minnesota. GEFS members are split between northern and southern solutions. At this time, it appears the at least far northern Iowa will be favorable for accumulating snow potential. Central Iowa will be more uncertain. In the coming days, will need to continue to monitor trends in the track of the system. If this system becomes as strong as deterministic guidance is indicating, dry slot fun could become an issue with the eventual snowfall forecast as the event draws closer.

GEFS Mean

The Euro had a significant shift in today's run compared to 00z. Much more SW to NE oriented than last night which was more ENE. Much higher snow totals as well and further north overall. Puts me from on the edge to out of the running, but I didn't have my hopes up high down here anyways. Hopefully at least some members get a nice storm out of this. Too bad the huge ridge and warmup behind the storm isn't going away on the models.

Euro slower and deeper this run. Further north as a result.

Euro unchanged through 96 hours.

Ukie on board. Almost perfect alignment. What could go wrong?

Storm thread

Could be a fun start to the weekend for a wide area of SD and the southern half of MN.

Time to open a storm thread. I haven't seen much from our Twin Cities posters lately, but they should be getting excited for this one.

Quite the ridge

We could probably fire up a thread by tomorrow for the weekend storm if it continues to show promise. All global models show it and most fairly strong. There are actually a few shots at snow in the next 7 days, so it has the potential to be active for a good portion of the forum.

12Z gfs

It's beginning to look a lot like Christmas...

GFS a little whiter this run IMBY