bud2380

I appreciate the response and hopefully you are right, otherwise it will be pretty boring in here. The extreme dryness we have experienced and the well above normal temperatures so far this fall gives me a lot of concern though that this will linger especially into the early part of winter.

For those that are major proponents of the LRC, I'm curious since it has been a bone dry fall, and this is when the LRC pattern is supposed to take shape, shouldn't that mean this will be an abnormally dry winter as well? And likely well above normal temps like we have seen so far this fall? In eastern Iowa we've had 0.2" of precip in the past 50 days. If we extrapolate that out using the LRC, it's going to be a very boring winter. And it's not just localized that we haven't seen rain, the entire midwest has been extremely dry, so the majority of us in the middle of the country may not have much to track this winter for storms. Unless the LRC is wrong of course.

I was awoke by a strange sound, thunder. It’s been a long time. Despite dark red on the radar, the atmosphere is so dry that we are only receiving light rain. My trees are effectively blocking the rain from even hitting my sidewalk in spots. So our first measurable precipitation since the end of August, but it looks like it won’t be a soaker. I was hoping we’d get a big downpour with these cells, but just not the case.

This tiny streak of rain showing up on models tonight would be the first precip in my back yard since the end of August. Most models are showing this just to my south though. I'm hoping the I80 corridor in Iowa just barely stays on the good side of this. Even if only a couple tenths of an inch, we could use it.

Long range GFS showing wide spread 100+ on October 5th, LOL. Ok. The all time high in the state of Iowa for October is something like 96 degrees. This would obliterate all records.

Cedar Rapids airport reporting 0.00”. Iowa City airport managed 0.02”. What an incredible disappointment.

Models continue to dry up in Iowa, especially north of I80. We may be lucky to get a 1/2". Was really hoping we got at least an inch. It may come down to a lucky downpour in an isolated thunderstorm to get to that amount though.

EPS pretty decent too.

12z Euro not bad.

Ukie shifted the heaviest band south, but still solid up through Iowa City and Cedar Rapids.

I was just telling my wife about September 2009 last night. I believe in eastern Iowa there was something like 43 days without measurable precipitation at the CR airport. Something like that. The weather was beautiful, but obviously, we needed some rain too. Much like this year. Hard to complain when it's been so nice, but we definitely could use a good soaking. Hopefully this weekend delivers.

NMB looks similar. Hopefully the GFS is just doing it's usual thing and will correct back to the consensus soon.

GEFS ensemble is also painting a wide swath of rain. Same with the EPS. So if we miss out largely on rain this weekend, that will be a real kick in the pants.

The 12z GFS isn't looking much better, but ironically the 00z and 06z Euro look really good. So does the 12z Canadian and 00z UK. So now the GFS went from the wettest to the driest. 6z Euro with a nice soaking and it's still raining here where the model ends.

GFS shows a soggy Sunday for Iowa and others.