BLI snowman

20 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Tim is missing another gorgeous spring day in Seattle. Bummer.

And to think a 15 hour long cloud onslaught seemed so likely just a few short days ago.

44 and wet. Raw day!!

32 minutes ago, Phil said:

Niño to Niña summers are a unique animal. The seasonal pattern tendencies stand out like a sore thumb from all other ENSO evolutions. I don’t think years that aren’t niño to niña transitions will work as seasonal pattern analogs.

The four 21st century summers that most closely fit the bill are 2005, 2010, 2016, and 2020.

2010 skews this map a little bit cold, but even the other years were fairly consistent in that they also managed to have a more muted midsummer peak than our recent norms and in some cases had a more abbreviated warm season overall. Main takeaway seems to be at least that the hottest anomalies in midsummer will more likely be focused to our east.

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

May 2022.   Rapidly evolving Nina in a post Tonga world.    Not that it matters what we want... but I have a bad feeling where this is going. 

Summer (mid June to mid September) is almost certainly going to find a way to be hot and dry here compared to 20th century norms regardless. The last decade plus now is pretty solid evidence of that and I've made my peace with it.

I for one happen to greatly enjoy the sub seasonal variety where it's still possible i. e. right now.  

Just now, TT-SEA said:

It's been a very nice spring so far.   What is happening now and likely coming is quite anomalous.   Don't be mad at me when I point out the nasty offset when it comes.  On the other hand... a warm May with multiple heat events in this ENSO situation is usually offset the other way in the summer.   I would be very leary of a warm May given my preferences. 

Very short term thinking, Tim. What happened for a 10 day window in mid March was also "very anomalous" in a vacuum. That doesn't change the bigger picture which shows that it's been a fairly typical and enjoyable spring so far. With a tinge of balance now ongoing as one would expect. Nothing crazy though. It doesn't always have to have some bigger implications. 

Besides, since 2014 literally everything has been a harbinger of a warm summer. It hasn't mattered what May does since we've been batting a thousand anyways. But to humor your theory, the most summery Mays in that timeframe (2015, 2018, 2023) have definitely been foretelling of hotter and drier summers. 

32 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

All this celebration for abnormally crappy weather feels like May 2022 all over again.    Also a rapidly evolving Nina that year.    Feels like a nasty offset might be ahead.   Personally I would prefer climo weather.   But we don't have a choice.   I didn't like spring 2022 and sure didn't like late summer and fall 2022.   I might be saying I told you so by July.    And I won't be happy about the heat and smoke either.   

What if I told you that it's been an absolutely idyllic and beautiful spring, Tim. And it looks now to continue. You know what they say about variety and life and spice and stuff. 

10 minutes ago, Eugene-5SW said:

Santiam Pass looks snowy enough for tomorrow morning that I moved everything around and delayed my 3-day Central WA road trip by a day.

Stops include the Hanford Manhattan B reactor tour, Dry Falls, Grand Coulee Dam, Gingko Petrified Forest.

Anything important I should add?

Palouse Falls is always worth a stop, especially in the spring.

30 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I've heard a lot of people die climbing Mt. MCKINLEY.

The BARROW to MCKINLEY hike is one of my very favorite, Andrew.

That Tuesday storm would have been a nice bit of snow probably as recently as 5 or 6 weeks ago. Nice BC slider signature.

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Solid mid level clouds both days over the weekend.    Lower left box in each square. 

Cool. With nearly 15 hours of daylight, likely gonna be some sun poking through as there almost always is at this point in the season. 

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF showed decent sun breaks for the Seattle area for today for many runs.   The high temps over the weekend and into early next week indicate sun breaks won't be nearly as prevalent.  Pretty hard for SEA to only get to 51 with sun breaks like today.

Colder upper level airmass this weekend moves in. Doesn't look like a ton of stratiform precip though. There's likely going to be a fair amount of sun breakage most days. 

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Nature is a cruel b*tch sometimes!

To paraphrase a certain Gopher State native from Januaries past: "60 degrees is never cruel!"

58 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

What's crazy is May/June 2011 was actually cooler at OLM. And April-June was significantly cooler than 1971. 

Generational spring/early summer.

Locally here, May 2011 was historically cold while June was just merely chilly. June 2010 actually felt a lot colder than June 2011, though looking back there was only about a degree difference.

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Record low maxes happen often??   That sucks.   Seems like we had a bunch of crap in April and May of 2022.  That wasn't so long ago.   

Check out May/June 1971. Seven record low maxes at SEA. And a couple of 59s in early July for good measure. 

What a time!

2 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

I was reading some franchise owners report on this and their labor cost hasn't changed but order sizes and "premium" food ordered has increased after adding kiosks. MORE DERAILMENT SORRY OFFICER J-DOG

Speaking personally, I know I'm just that much more likely to do a 50 piece McNugget and large Peanut Butter Crunch McFlurry combo when I don't have a laser-eyed teenager there at the register to judge me. 

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Record cold maxes are in the mid 40s this time of year for SEA...

Tim has had it so easy for so long. 

10 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

You can see the big break over the PORTLAND METRO on visible satellite  

Plenty of mid level clouds streaming in from the WNW over here. Has gotten noticeably darker in the last hour. 

15 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

In a lot of places, fast food prices have inflated more than any other type of food - mainly because the cost of labor has skyrocketed.

That's why they're installing kiosks in most of them. The days of the happy-go-lucky McDonald's cash register worker are almost over

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

The Niño 3.4 number doesn’t tell the whole story.

There was a healthy, quasi-stable niña low pass signal during the first part of that winter. The atmosphere was well coupled. There was no major intraseasonal event (MJO/SSW et al) that could have torpedoed the base state like that.

Not only did it abruptly fall apart without warning, but come February the atmosphere had coupled to the niño-costero signature as if it was a mature niño event. That’s not supposed to happen.

It’s cute you think it’s as simple as a cursory glance at the niño 3.4 number, though. I used to think that way..when I was 11yrs old.

Oh.

Well hopefully that Nino-Costco magic strikes again with the strong Nina event this coming winter. Would hate to see something nasty like a Nino-Big Lots signature emerge.

12 minutes ago, Phil said:

Nov/Dec maintained the weak niña base state, but that regime imploded in January. It was quite remarkable, actually.

By February, the niño-costero signal was stronger than the preceding niña ever was. Then it abruptly collapsed in May/June, and a more substantial EPAC niña signal emerged during summer 2017 (though it was still disconnected from the PMM/IPWP state..the entire system state appeared disheveled and confused in the years following the 2015/16 super niño).

I figured you guys would have some intellectual curiosity on that front, but apparently people would rather cling to preconceived notions because of how the weather behaved in their backyards. Sad.  

Not really. It was never anything more than a very weak Nina to begin with, and the weather patterns remained remarkably consistent across the CONUS pretty much throughout so there was no discernible impact from any of the marginal SSTA warming in the equatorial Pacific. It will go down as a weak Nina cold season that for one reason or another had an unusually dominant grip on the weather patterns. Kind of the inverse of a year like 2004-05, which was only ever a very weak Nino but one which developed a solid death grip on the weather patterns nevertheless.

It's cute that you're still so hung up on it, though.

The 2016-17 Nino is the stuff of legend. Amazing how we pulled that off. 

12z runs look great!!!!!!!!!!!!!

6 hours ago, MossMan said:

The only time I get prescription anxiety meds is when I need to fly. Most likely due to the fact that my first ever flight happened a week after the United DC-10 crashed in Iowa. 
And of course that first plane I ever stepped foot on was a Northwest air DC-10. 
Then I flew on an Alaska Air MD-80 a few weeks before that Alaska Air MD-80 (that could have been the same one) crashed into the pacific. Ever since then I have needed meds since I figured my luck was running out. Now, give me an Airbus or a Boeing 737 700 or older. 

If it makes you feel any better, there hasn't been a major U.S. plane crash since 2009. An amazing testament to how safe air travel has become, almost down to a science. The bigger picture shows that even with the questionable recent record of certain companies, the safeguards are overwhelmingly doing their job.

39 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’m actually optimistic about a wetter pattern as the MJO returns to the E-Hem. Maybe not quite to the level of the 12z CMC, but in that general direction. There’s nothing in the system state to suggest 2024 will be a dry tinderbox in the PNW.

That said, those in CA/SW US should keep a watchful eye as the second half of this year could flip dry. Good thing those reservoirs are filled to the brim because La Niña will take no prisoners once it establishes.

Only “good” news is we shouldn’t have the godzilla-like 4CH roasting the intermountain west this summer. Will be at least somewhat flatter/suppressed, but not to the extent of 2008 where it was almost nonexistent. More likely to resemble 2020 or 2010.

It probably won’t be enough to stop a very warm summer nationally, though. The broader mid-latitude pattern looks ugly, and I suspect the entire lower-48 (including WA/OR) will run warmer than average. But the nastiest stuff will probably center in the Plains or Midwest, not at the coasts.

Funny enough, the last few big snowpack years in CA were all  *drumroll... Niñas!

2010-11, 2016-17, 2022-23.

La Niña truly brings the nourishing juices of life to all. Particularly to the Mid Atlantic states, where it allows the newly-native flora to thrive as it works to further expedite the transfer of the humid subtropical climate/bioregion into your neck of the woods.

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I remember May 1998. Abiqua Creek was blown out on the first day of fishing season.

Rang in with a nice line of strong to severe thunderstorms on the 1st and never looked back.