Jesse

I think it's time for Tim to go back on mod preview.

Looks like I nailed my 10 day forecast: modified arctic air, no significant snow.

Except that is hasn't happened yet. Let's not pat ourselves on the back until the event actually occurs. Too far out to even discuss such details right now.

This IS the funniest post I've read all day though, and there's been some stiff competition.

Oh you lucky dog. My wife refuses to even consider Montana. Don't be surprised if I pop by with some cuban sticks and moonshine.

Bozeman or bust for me. My girlfriend has family back there so I've been visiting a lot for the past year. I think I'm sold.

Euro has a backdoor arctic push. The pattern looks screwy as the vort lobe becomes dislodged from the main branch of the northern jet and the pattern takes on a split flow look. Not a very healthy block.

Yeah, I would like to see the subtropical ridge better melded with the high latitude block. It is several days out still, and at least both 12z runs gave us cold air.

Maybe the Euro ensemble will be a little more solid with the offshore ridge.

Jesse is not a wishcaster. Jesus Christ.

Thanks. Appreciate the support.

I bet the gorge gets nailed next winter lol

Yeah, probably.

This winter so far and last winter have easily been the two most inactive back to back winters out here in years. December 2013 and January 2013 were both very cold months in Stevenson, but pretty quiet all things considered. Hoping February 2014 can make up for that in a big way.

Really?

 

Give it a rest.

 

There is a HUGE difference between months of silly, irrational optimism and a genuine opportunity only a week away.

 

Everyone here knows that and you are intentionally being annoying.  

I will count myself among the many here, if that is the case.

You still planning on teaching?

That's how it's looking right now.

I am torn between my two passions; education and geology. I may end up just teaching geology!

Oregon or Washington?

Most likely Washington.

You live in a great location. One day you are bound to get slammed by some great winter weather.

I'm moving back to the I-5 corridor this summer. The next month or two are basically my last shot at scoring in a colder climate. That is, until I move to Montana in a few years.

You are the one labeling people as wishcasters.

Is this a joke?

I will say this. If we do get any kind of arctic air, odds are low we will see another completely dry event (for places up north) like December.

I know it's been warmer in other places, but the fake cold has been pretty impressive out here. I haven't been any higher than the 30s since last Sunday. Most areas east of the cascades have had a fairly chilly last 7-10 days as well.

ZR is looking like a distinct possibility out here tomorrow morning. Then starting Wednesday it looks like we will transfer almost seamlessly from fake cold to real cold.

Best run in 2 months and no one cares. Okay.

That's what happens when everyone is scared away by the prospect of being labled a wishcaster for talking about anything good.

A fairly chilly 45-26 IMBY today. I think even SEA finally had a below normal day.

36/29 here. The wind has really picked up this evening.

Looking at the 18z ensemble for Seattle I counted 12 members that had 850mb temps drop to -10 or lower and 6 or 7 that went above zero during the period in question. Clearly a good run. If the warm members are indeed bogus the mean would have been amazing.

Even with the warm ensemble members the mean was still a good deal colder than the operational.

But I can't talk about that kind of stuff. Pointing out anything good is inherently unrealistic. Pessimism is the new realism.

A lot more warmer members on the 18z ensembles too...

You are quickly becoming one of the most annoying members of this forum. Congrats.

Posting here is quickly beginning to lose its lure....

12Z ensembles are decent. I hope no one is offended by the fact that I'm choosing to post about a good sign. I apologize in advance.

Well the difference between February and January is that January legitimately had NO good signs. People who thought it did were dreaming. There are some decent signs for February. The problem is that it is February, a month that has completely sucked 95% of the time over the past 18 years.

CFS?

I am not a fan of hot summers. Sue me. :-) But clearly, I was remembering the records incorrectly. Long live the ridge.

He would if he could.

I agree... that is the week if anything will happen.

Deal in reality, Tim. Acknowledging that anything good might happen, ever, is clearly delusional wishcasting.

Deal in reality Jesse.     Nature does not give a crap about being happy and positive for the sake of being happy and positive.     Next weekend went from looking to pretty good to looking pretty gross once we crossed inside the resolution.    

 

February will likely end up below normal... but that does not mean it will be memorable.     I just wish it would be wet.

 

That being said... this is hands-down my favorite winter here.     The number of dry days and sunshine here have been astounding.

How exactly is acknowledging that we still may have a shot down the road not dealing in reality? I have never understood the belief held by a few here that blind pessimism is somehow firmly rooted in reality while cautious optimism is not.

I just said a few posts ago this may not happen at all. Don't see how you can get any more "real" than that. I figured a comment of that nature would please the dual foothill gods of pessimism and get me off their list, but I guess it wasn't enough.

http://i.imgur.com/0nB1WFa.png

 

This has to be one of the most God-awful forecasts I've ever seen. 

Great post!

Don't like how the cold next weekend and even outflow that was shown earlier has just vanished into a wishy-washy gross pattern as we get closer.     Something tells me this long range stuff will continue to go through a vanishing stage when it gets around 144-168 hours out.  

I'm sure you will find another foothills resident that agrees with this wholeheartedly.

Which is great for you. Misery loves company!

I think there is still potential down the road, though.