Jesse

Ok. Thx. I'll double check. I thought that was the summer that got started late but didn't quit until well into September. Major August heatwave.

 

I like yours better. :-)

 

Summer 1977 started out fairly average in June in July. Then of course we had the major heatwave the first half of August. After that the weather abruptly changed to cooler and wetter the last half of August. This carried over into September, which was wet and chilly that year.

The 12Z is a solidly chilly run. 

The mountains really deserve it

 

You're absolutely right. They have done a bang up job this year.

I think maybe the models initially latching onto the big pattern crash too quickly has fooled us. This often happens. A cold/snowy pattern could still be in the cards, just a little later than we were expecting. Perhaps towards the second week of the month or so (Euro weeklies support this idea).

 

Or maybe nothing will happen. Who knows. Some mountain snow would be nice at very least.

 

27 at PDX this morning!

A cool, wet summer sounds fine to me. Needs to be cool and wet at some point.

Idiotic discussion tonight!

36/31 out here today. VERY springlike.

Looks like a spitting image of 2-2-89. Just a little late to the party.

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1989/us0202.php

Are you feeling this one?

Yeah, the Friday storm is increasingly looking like a potential snowmaker up this way.

I'm liking my chances in the Gorge as well.

Yeah, that's essentially what the 06z showed on that day. 1933 repeat?

That was the cold wave when Seneca fell to -54f for an Oregon record, right?

 

Btw could you link me to that site that has top ten warmest and coldest months for PDX? I recently got a new laptop and lost the old link.

Not true at all, from a 500mb perspective. Shortwave activity will usually not be picked up on from this stage anyway, especially post-truncation.

 

 

 

Not to be rude, but I can't believe you're saying it will be a "bone dry" event 10+ days out, when just 1hr ago you were claiming the GFS was smoking pot with it's entire solution. Make up your mind, dude..

 

On a lighter note, when did you fly back to BC from Ontario? Sounds like a lot of back & forth.

This. You are winning me over lately.

Wow, just wow. Incredible 12z runs. Please let this happen. We are SO overdue to get hit in the late Jan/early Feb time frame!!

The 12z Ensembles are fantastic. Easily the best yet.

 

Hoping to see a good 12z Euro run keep up the momentum this morning.

Blocking stays nearby in the 12z - not a fan.

 

It is a great run. What are you talking about?

 

I would work on your analysis a little. While at work I will often see you post something strange about a model run, only to check it for myself and have it be the exact opposite of what you said. This has happened several times.

It depends where you are, though. Areas socked in with fog will end up being pretty average. Abbotsford for example is likely going to finish this month with a +5F anomaly, whereas Vancouver (which has been very foggy) will end up with a +2F. The local mountains, forget about it. Probably departures of +8F up there.

 

Just commenting on the fact that temperatures will end up essentially average down here despite it being such a spring like month.

The pattern change is not too far off to be taken seriously. Whether it not it leads to an arctic blast in the PNW remains to be seen..but the likelihood of a blast during the window of interest is probably 50/50..in other words, above average.

 

My point exactly. Chances are elevated right now.

I really like the 12Z. The cold is here by Wednesday, then sticks around the entire run.

 

Could be looking at a snow event out here next Friday if models keep showing that little system.

It's too far off to really take seriously. It's the GFS, if I had a dollar for every time it showed massive arctic air the in the fantasy range....

 

Seeing 4" in my neck of the woods of the western lowlands is very likely at least once during the winter. I think it is less likely than usual. Once we get into mid February we're going to need 850s below -6C to sustain any decent snows.

 

I said anything less than 1.5" is a "dusting/coating of snow" in my mind, not 4". I'm asking you now to stop with the personal insults before you get out of hand, again.

 

 

Jesse... I promise you that will use the term 'winter-like' several times in June and it will be 100% accurate as well.     

 

Today will be very spring-like again at my location.    

 

Sunny... upper 50s and lows 60s... daffodils coming up and magnolia tree budding... grass turning green.      How is that NOT spring-like???

 

And yes... winter will absolutely return.     But I will be enjoying this spring-like weather while it lasts.

 

Just commenting on the fact that temperatures will end up essentially average down here despite it being such a spring like month.

I think that based on the reasonable range (

We just had a GFS op run that spit out major arctic air, and there are quite a few fairly cold ensemble members. I think completely ruling out arctic air is silly at this point, with several things pointing to the possibility.

 

And of course 4" (or a trace, as you'd call it) blanketing the western lowlands is never likely. I don't see the point in even making such an obvious statement.

Looks like EUG is running a -0.9 departure for January.

 

PDX +0.4

SLE +0.1

 

So essentially average temps this month in the Willamette Valley.

Springlike!

I think some sort of arctic intrusion is certainly possible. Lots of cold air over the NH to work with, and what appears to be a large scale retrogression of the pattern than has dominated North America the last 3-4 weeks.

 

If things stay amplified enough, a tap into some arctic air sometime over the next 2-3 weeks is not out of the question IMO.

Yawn

 

That wasn't in the thesaurus.

 

Way to think outside the box!

Something about how I will definitely see snow next month.

 

Something about how I don't care about it anyway, attempting to make everyone else without that kind of guarantee feel badly.

I think the mood has finally started to change on here though.  It got to the point where I had to stay away from the forum much of the time over the past few weeks.  Hopefully this whole thing next month will work out so maybe people won't be so quick to throw in the towel in the future.

 

That would be nice. People tend to get along a lot better here when the weather is fun.