Jesse

Gearing up for the 00z.

 

This might help you:

 

http://thesaurus.com/browse/Depressing

66 in Forks today. 29 in Spokane.

36/32 out here today with raging winds. This has been hands down the windiest two day stretch since I moved out here.

 

Crazy that it was 70 in Medford today. Is that a new January record for them?

 

73 in North Bend is also pretty wild.

 

Hopefully the "extremes beget extremes" theory pays off next month.

Yeah, he's been pretty insufferable lately. Not totally sure if he's just doing it for kicks at this point.

 

How anyone can look at the 12z models and act like it's "same old, same old" is beyond me. The pattern change is pretty well accounted for at this point in model-land.

 

Christ, I sound like Jim now. 

 

I think that's it.

 

The models are looking pretty good right now, all things considered. 

Nooooooooooo...

You are a waste of forum bandwidth.

Already 51 degrees with sun and a warmish east breeze.

 

It will end up in the 60-65 degree range here today which I now know is NOT spring-like. Its very, very much like winter because its bitterly cold at Jesse's house.

 

Would have to be delusional to think 62 and sunny could be even remotely considered spring-like.

 

Just like a 53-degree, dark and drizzly day in June is very summer-like.

My point is the conditions I have been seeing out here are proof that it's still very much winter. A cold pool of this magnitude east of the cascades would simply not exist during a ridgy period 4-5 weeks from now. Strong ridging in late January can certainly produce some spring like days in areas not affected by the inversion, but we still have a long way to go before climo starts to make a definitive move toward Spring. We have had some great winter weather in February in the past. If the 12z Euro is on to anything we may be seeing more soon!

 

33, overcast and windy out here. Have you hit 60 yet today?

Let’s face it; this is not just a scientific forum. That is the beauty of it to me. This forum has always been a great mix of science, statistics, hunches, humor, and lots of personal feelings demonstrated within a weather oriented landscape. Each of these attributes should be tolerated and encouraged as long as they are kept civil and respectful. There are probably potential contributors to the forum that are not posting for fear of being ridiculed or made fun of because their thoughts on the model runs might be in error. It is possible to point out someone’s error without smirking in print. Moderation and policing are not going to get the job done alone; it takes a bit of self-control to refrain from clubbing someone over his or her opinion.

Great post!

Any Feb. event is likely to bring a strong N to S gradient.

Nah, that really doesn't start becoming a big thing until March.

12Z ensemble mean is pretty impressive really.

No, you're just wishcasting and cheerleading.

My educated opinion is that we will see a week or so of general -5 to -7F surface temp anomalies over the PNW, along with weak systems in NW flow. This should be a good pattern for modest snowpack gains in the Cascades with snow levels dipping down to 2,000' or so. I see nothing to indicate a snow threat in the lowlands at this point with 850 mb temps on both the GFS and ECMWF ensembles not dropping below -4 or -5c through the next two weeks. The ECMWF Weeklies show a slightly better looking pattern during week 3 assuming the block near 160 W undergoes a pulse of amplification, that could bring in a bit colder air if it occurs.

Good analysis. I agree, any chance for true arctic air is still a few weeks away. It will be nice to start getting some chilly systems and mountain snow later next week, though!

I really want it to snow, and it may at some point in February, but I'm not going to cheer lead and wishcast.

Who is cheer leading and wish casting?

 

Is being anything but incredibly depressing and glum with every post considered cheer leading and wish casting now?

 

Take a break buddy. It will be good for you. This is the worst I have ever seen you.

But if you wish hard enough...

I think taking a few weeks off might do you some good.

Thank you! And I'm not stopping either!

 

You've got the Tim stamp of approval. I'd change your ways immediately.

The 00Z looks great.

The roaring east wind and cold temperatures out here certainly haven't been springlike, but whatever people want to delude themselves into thinking elsewhere...

Surprised no one has commented on the east winds in the Portland area today. PDX was gusting up around 40mph all afternoon.

 

It has been very cold and windy out here. High of only 37 today, after a low of 32, with east winds gusting in the 30-40mph range.

I think the best thing Jesse can do is put the whole board on ignore then he can have a love fest with himself.

Nah, I'll just block annoyances like you and Brody and be off on my merry way.

Ahhh, that makes sense.

 

The euro is not ugly, but not great, room for improvement. In general seems like things are trending better

We must not be looking at the same Euro.

 

I would call the 12z run great.

 

It really seems like some people will never be happy...

Did KVUO make his way to the new forum, or did he disappear? Under a new name perhaps?

I believe he is now BLI snowman.

Hopefully a mutual love of the 12z Euro can help us put all of our differences behind us.

 

The progression looks great, and is moving up. It has been SO long since we've seen decent arctic air in the first ten days of February. Fingers crossed...

I'm not really trying to aggravate you. I'm tired or our weather trolling the s**t out of us with one dumpfest of a winter after another.

I feel you. I'm just trying to enjoy what we have right now. At least it feels a little wintery out here. I do think February had a lot of potential too. Past history shows it can be a good month. I guess I just don't get the pessimism simply for the sake of pessimism.

 

Despite the blisteringly hot late January sun, true spring is still well over a month away for the lowlands. Probably a lot longer than that for you.

Now Jesse will put me on ignore.

Not necessarily. I still like barely over half of what you post. There are others who are definitely worse.

I appreciate a diversity of opinions and perspectives.

Me too. Not a big fan of "opinions" formed simply to aggravate others, though.

Btw, I am still curious about the option to put people on ignore here. There a certain few I have in mind...

12z ensembles are decent. Definitely good agreement on a big pattern change at this point.