Dan the Weatherman

The AMO has improved the past few months.

It began last year about where it is now, and then slowly rose to a yearly high of .374 in October. I hope the downward trend of the AMO continues and that it doesn't stay positive for very much longer. I believe the AMO affects our climate a lot more than most people realize and I have even read that the positive phase contributes to drought in the SW U.S.

Here are the latest monthly values for the PDO and AMO:

PDO:  -0.41 - December, 2013

AMO:  0.158  - November, 2013

For some reason, the December value of the AMO hasn't been posted, yet.

If anybody wants to create a new thread for this sort of index / oscillation data, feel free to move this post there.

Pretty much every model and index forecast out there says cold February. You would sure never know it to read some of the posts on here. The pattern will be far different at months end than it has been for the past several weeks.

The pattern had better be different in February than it has been the last 6 weeks! We need storms! The last measurable rain here in Socal was December 19 and the season totals in most of CA are absolutely pathetic right now. The PNW definitely needs some precipitation as well along with mountain snow.

I am with you, though, that I think there is going to be a major change by early February, because it seems that winter hasn't even started here in all of CA, and it can't stay dry like this forever. It would be very abnormal for this level of dryness to continue on for much longer, especially going into February and March.

There was a big bottleneck of years with a 28 day winter dry spell here in Flagstaff, we have now reached that and are in fifth place over all with the longest winter dry spell. By Tuesday night we will be in 3rd place with the longest one in over 40 years. With no precipitation predicted for the coming week it is quite possible for us to roll into next week and hit the 2nd place one at 37 days or even the longest at 39 days.

 

I was much happier last summer when we hit the record for wettest July monsoon.

If this pattern continues for much longer, a much larger portion of the country is going to be in drought conditions and I don't just mean the west coast states.

Good news! Gfs models are keeping the precipitation in the long range. What seemed to be a La Nada may now take El Nino conditions in reckoning.

 

 

Not only that, but the QBO is almost turning towards it's easterly phase!

 

 

PNA is also making a huge negative drop, according to current calculations... And the MJO pulse seems to be heading to us. Woo-hoo! Hopefully Socal gets soaked down there too!

 

 

It seems there's a 50/50 chance of storms or nothing! However, according to my speculations, I think the "storm spell" will be the one to arrive.

We are overdue for a wet pattern this season. If it somehow stays bone dry through the end of March, that would be unprecedented.

Maybe we can get a big screen with snow on it as well. 

http://earthfirstjournal.org/newswire/wp-content/uploads/sites/3/2014/01/beijingsunset1.jpg

If that is in China as it appears to be according to the caption, I wonder how much of that obscured visibility in the background is smog as opposed to fog or low clouds. I can't tell if it was snowing at the time or not, even though there is either snow or ice covering the ground.

Clearly if we are already getting fires that are burning homes this time of year there are serious problems to come. It will only get worse and by next fall things will really be primed for fire.

That certainly is true. The brush is as dry or even drier than it normally is during early fall when the hot variety of Santa Ana winds usually come up. We desperately need a change in this pattern to a much wetter and snowier one for the West Coast ASAP. Not only has it been dry, it has been a mind-numbingly boring "wet" season so far here in Socal and I am really getting tired of it, especially after being so dry the second half of last season on top of this.

This has been a very long lasting Santa Ana event here in Socal, especially in the more wind-prone areas such as where I live. The wind started blowing on Sunday night and has continued for this entire week for the most part, except for some brief lulls at times. It has been extremely warm here in Orange with highs in the mid or upper 80s the last couple of days. There have even been a few reports of it reaching 90, but I don't think it has reached that in my backyard. The last three nights or so have been incredibly warm at my location with the wind and have been in the low-mid 70s! It has actually been warm enough to go outside in shorts at night, almost unheard of this time of year. This nighttime warmth has been highly localized, though, and has been mostly confined to the more wind-prone areas such as where I am located. For example, late last night it was in the low 70s here in my part of Orange, but at the same time Fullerton was 51, Miramar NAS (San Diego) was in the upper 40s, and Temecula was 46.

Fire activity had been very low here in Socal despite the incredibly dry conditions and windy weather this week, and for most of the season for that matter, but that changed last night with the brush fire near Glendora and Sierra Madre, which has burned about 5 homes the last I heard.

Yeah, this may be Jim's chance to quietly exit if he really wants to. Hopefully he will join us though, I would miss his posts!

Hopefully he decides to come back. I always enjoy reading his posts as well.

I was joshin'. I agree, much more in the way of arctic air over the conus, but there's been a horrid lack of storminess over the lower 48.

 

I'd like to see some nice phasers before the winter is over, and it looks like Feb/Mar could have plenty of them.

That has been the case especially in CA.

Hey, I know you from Weather West and Open Snow .  It has been extremely warm even up here in the Bay Area.  70s yesterday, same today.  San Jose set a record yesterday with 75.  Just absolutely bizarre for here.  Average is upper 50s this time of year, so we're around +15 compared to average - just crazy.

 

I'm tired of this warm, dry weather.  I'm an East Coast guy who just moved here 1.5 years ago and I still miss real seasons... the average weather here is boring enough, this is downright awful.  And so dusty and brown.  That said, I'm going to try to do some hiking over the MLK weekend.  I figure if it's going to be this warm I may as well get outdoors and stop looking at the depressing models for a while.  And maybe get a first hand look at how bad things are up in the Santa Cruz Mountains.

 

I still think we'll see some rain in FEB and MAR, though I'd be surprised if either month is above average for precip (MAR has the better chance of that, esp if El Nino starts developing).  I just have to think the ridge will break down at some point for at least a little while - it can't stay all winter without blinking, can it?  Though I guess we're already in uncharted territory, so who knows.  I feel like the overall PDO and AMO patterns just make us more reliant than ever on ENSO events for decent rainfall.  So hopefully we'll get a reprieve with an El Nino next winter, but I'd expect the overall trend to remain dry until the PDO / AMO change.

 

At this point I'd be happy with an 8" rain year, sad to say.

Welcome to the Western Forums! I recognize you from Open Snow and Weather West as well. These are the three places in which I post about weather most frequently.

Since you moved out here, you have been experiencing one of CA's driest times that I have ever seen. I have lived in Socal my entire life, and while it is normal to have long dry periods down here, it is much more rare for your area. I have seen a few years in the past down here that have followed a similar very dry pattern and they have almost all turned wetter in February onward, except for 1991 in which we had the "March Miracle".

It was very warm here in Socal to the point it was almost hot, with temperatures in the mid-upper 80s, which is ridiculous for mid January. The Santa Ana winds have been blowing here quite a bit since Sunday night.

I wouldn't be surprised at all to see this winter the driest on record as well. I'm so desperate that I'm wondering if the ridge was controlled using man-made technology (high doubts though).

 

I just want an undespicable low to shove that ridge and splash us with drenching downpours.

 

I'm thinking that March, being the typical transition from winter to spring, should start convectional storms (especially with much increased ENSO percentages). The La Nina pattern (that has been making most of the weather in 2013-early 2014 miserable) should be replaced by a more of an El Nino pattern by spring

 

As accurate as the Ecmwf is, it can't predict as far as a month with accuracy. So, yes. Spring is when the FUN begins.

I have been wondering whether all of the industrial pollution and horrible smog from China's rapidly growing economy is possibly modifying the weather patterns in eastern Asia, which, in turn, is possibly is influencing the persistent ridge downstream (Ridiculously Resilient Ridge or RRR) in some manner that is causing it to be constantly reinforced to the extent that is as of late.

Disgustingly dry here in northern Arizona. No snow or rain since the week before Christmas.

It has been just like that here in Socal as well, no rain since Dec. 19, and that was a puny "storm" for my area. It seems that it has been as dry as Death Valley lately across the entire state of CA. The desert southwest overall has been quite dry lately as well.

It appears that the NWS is unsure why this ridge pattern has been as persistent for as long as it has been across the west. On another weather blog I frequent, which focuses almost exclusively on California weather, the moderator has come up with quite an appropriate name for this ridge: The Ridiculously Resilient Ridge or RRR for short.

It is a very warm dry day across Socal with temperatures currently in the low-mid 80s in many areas of Orange, Los Angeles, and San Diego counties. The Santa Anas are quite strong in some areas, not as strong in other areas. Here in Orange the wind was not blowing much this afternoon but it just started up as I was typing this post.

First post on the new forum.

EDIT: It worked!