Kayla

First record low set at PDX since....??

This is a great point and totally didn't even think about that. So even with 850mb east side cold pool of -14c you think the dew point profile there will still not be enough to dry us out anymore than we currently are?

Was just going to say... The whole column stays below freezing until early Sunday morning now.

Nice! And a new record low for the date.

That low is a lot stronger at hour 60 compared to the 00z euro last night... Will it curve further offshore?

Yeah definitely not expecting to go above freezing until late Monday morning at the earliest up here. Dew points have recovered a bit, will be interesting if they plummet again Friday night and what the effect of that would be to the longevity of the event for PDX metro area.

Wow, Bozeman is running a -26 departure so far this month. PDX's -8 departure all of sudden doesn't seem all that exciting!

Agreed.

Yeah have a really hard time believing the east side cold pool gets scurried out as much as the WRF shows. It's pretty established and will most likely only continue to strengthen into Saturday morning. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/s11/925mb/925mb_sf.gif?1448231956339

Not realistic, especially down here.

Looks like the 12z GEM and to a lessor extent the GFS continue to hint at the idea of a snow to big ZR event back to snow Saturday to Monday.

Meh, not the lower levels and then just crashes back down anyway.

Saturday looks like a good bet. Hey did you see?? Monthly mean down to freezing!

Made it down to 15º here on a very exposed hill top so you know the air aloft is still quite chilly. Currently 18º dp 6º.

Should be even colder tonight.

Yeah and offshore flow continues into Monday.

And the Jan 1979 event was snow, big zr event, then back to snow?

Thanks, I'll check it out.

2008 was my first thought but as you mention the lower levels are warmer this go around. At the same time it seems like we'll have colder air just to our north to pull from. Low placement is critical.

As long as the ZR doesn't get too out of control before we can transition back to snow. I know it's just a couple runs and still several days away but does anyone have analogs to this type of pattern?

You lost me... What's your point?

Yeah, would definitely bet on the GEM or any other model that moderates us the slowest with the cold pool that we have now and those lows so far offshore.

That cold pool in Eastern Oregon is pretty impressive.

Well if it helps, I'm moving late next week so I'll be reverse wishcasting the heck out of it.

Until the euro jumps on board...