Kayla

10 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

more interesting is that's Libby I think.  technically west of the highest rockies in Glacier.  leads me to think that can bleed down into N ID and E WA thru the trench

Yeah it does look to be colder west of the divide with this shot which is atypical. Reminiscence of Feb 2014.

16 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I see the 6z Euro has a -53 in NW Montana at day 3. Pretty sure I've never seen it that cold so close to verification.

Definitely looks like a cold air damning effect for that area with this.

16 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Helluva air mass. What'd you hit last December again? I think you said Bozeman was near all time record?

The airport saw -24F/-45F last December 22nd which is now the coldest day on record. -17F/-40F in my backyard but my Davis is only rated to -40F so it's possible that it was colder.

We saw 700mb temps around -30C with that one last year. The latest GFS is showing -23C but the Euro gets down to -31C. Lots of -30 to -40F readings look to be a good bet at his point.

Might end up seeing -40's out of this after all. Niño to boot...color me impressed. 

GFS is gonna be cold.

GFS shows snowfall with temps of -10F for 48hrs straight here. Yeah, it's probably fallen off its rocker.

1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

I'm just talking about what's being shown now in the short term.

But the GFS has gotten significantly colder for you and everyone else compared to a couple days ago. Check out the 12z run from two days ago for Monday am.

 

Way colder today.

Cold out here was always a given. We always seem to find a way to see -50F departures now. 

I'm speaking about the western lowlands. The GFS has performed much better in the lead up to this event. Of course it's possible it has lost its way but constancy means something in my book. There a few on here that have been very dismissive of it and all I'm saying is that I wouldn't put any less stock in it compared to the Euro at this point.

Just now, Front Ranger said:

Agreed, but also pretty much every other model is closer to its camp than the GFS. I do think that means something at this range.

You mean like 3 days ago when the Euro/CMC were showing -50F here? The GFS has been steadfast and that has to mean something.

I'm back in Bozeman so I'll be tracking the Arctic front on Thursday. Should be hit with a snow squall line here in about an hour so that outta be fun!

I'm super excited to see what PDX sees tonight! Pretty classic setup for a nice little snow dump.

12z GEM shows nearly an inch of precip with the boundary stalling right over Bozeman with temps -5F to -10F for about 36 hours straight.

Would likely see 50:1 snow ratios with that outcome. If only!

44 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

It happens here if there's a blizzard predicted.

Never happens in Bozeman! I do kind of miss the nostalgic of everyone hunkering down when a big snowstorm is forecasted.

50 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

My son is headed there this weekend to see friends, looks like it will be pretty interesting weather-wise.  I think he flies in Thursday afternoon and back out Sunday.

Better pack his extra thick long johns!

45 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

12z Canadian has you sub -10 from hour 120 on. With a couple of lows near -40.

D**n...that would be rather historic! I haven't been following the models very closely so I haven't been riding the ups and downs with ya'll. (just finishing up some pretty rigorous training for the new job) It's really shocking that we are looking at back to back years of an historic cold airmass. 

1 minute ago, Mercurial said:

Picked up 5" overnight (ba dum tss), with an 8" snowpack.  Everything looks so wintry and beautiful.  Much more snow and moisture on the way

Nice! Snowing in Bozeman this morning as well. Looking like maybe 2-4" there by end of day. 

I've been in MN/WI over the past week where there is still ZERO snow on the ground. Pretty wild. Looks like I'll be heading home right before the Bozeman becomes the Arctic...again.

While everything looks really promising I’m still hesitant to say that it’s coming. The way this season has played out I worry that the block gets undercut by the southern energy after the first trough on the 6th-7th.

Like always, time will tell. I’m bouncing back and forth between Bozeman and Minneapolis for work these next few weeks so either way I’m probably going to freeze my butt off!

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Feel like a Wal-Mart, Panda Express, Dunkin Donuts, Nail Salon, Taco Del Mar, a Tae Kwon Do studio ‘n a N-N-Out would look great right about where that elk herd is.

Please gawd nooo! Fortunately all that land has already been snatched up by GVLT (Gallatin Valley Land Trust).

5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Ironically, the new weather regime for the intermountain west must have had to become more troughy in order to compensate for the ambient background warming.

I think this is true. Probably also an effect of a weakened pacific jet as well which of course hurts the west coast but a weakened jet actually keeps the intermountain west cooler due to less downsloping.

15 minutes ago, Mercurial said:

Yea you can already see slight decreases in annual snowfall in places like Missoula and the Flathead, since we tend to get more precip from warm systems associated with progressive westerly flow.  But Great Falls has averaged 70" snowfall per year since 2000, but only 50" in the period from 1900 to 2000.  And Great Falls has excellent record keeping compared to most other cities in Montana.  Generally the record keeping here is terrible.

MSU has been keeping records since 1892 and it has been very reliable. Of course late 1800's early 1900's is spotty but beyond that the consistency is quite good.

Just did a quick check on the change from 1971-2010 to 1981-2020 30yr averages at Bozeman MSU and the average temp decreased from 44.8 to 44.7 degrees which is pretty remarkable considering the UHI effect is very significant.

Snowfall average increased from 92.1" to 92.6" in that same period. So all and all, things have remained surprisingly stagnant. 

7 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Yeah I was gonna say, climate change “immune” seems like a stretch. It could be that climate change itself is driving the changes that have been making that area do better in the snowfall and cold department in recent years. The snowfall one in particular makes a lot of sense with the jet that far north more often during the winter, when it’s always going to be cold enough anyway 

"somewhat immune" but I agree that is probably a bit of a stretch. I think your description better describes what I was getting at.

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

If the rule of averages has anything to say, you might want to find that worm and bolt him down... 

No doubt. Definitely feels like borrowed time...this season has been a good reminder.

6 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Speak of the devil! Do you have some arrangement with Saint Nicholas himself to maximize negative temp anomalies?? I want in

I honestly I don't know what it is...wish I could say it was me! I move to a new location and it ends up being literally the only location in the country that has actually cooled this century and seen an increase of precipitation.

I just complained about needing some snow but this area has been extremely fortunate and somewhat immune to climate change this century...thus far.