Front Ranger

Euro goes to late, but who cares. Massive improvements when it matters.

0z GFS had ridge more tilted, but 0z Euro is still way closer to GFS than GEM. Big improvement from 12z models.

Hour 96 similar to GFS. Definite improvement.

Can't tell if this is going to be good or bad yet?

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2014122400/ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_4.png

Shortwave further west than GFS. Should be good.

No kidding... of course its possible.  

That's why Dewey's post didn't really make sense.

Its like you are posting in your world with no sense of the discussion on here... or any other model runs today.    You just keep plowing along obvilously.

 

BTW - whether you bottom out 38 or 36 is not going to make much of a difference.    Cold rain is cold rain.   

Dude...you're crossing into jerkdom.

Oh Jim...

This is a weird one. He's talking about a legit threat, unless the NWS is out to lunch.

Tim is right about this. The 0z GEM is much closer to the rest of the model runs today than the 0z GFS.

For now I would have to discount the GEM. It is so different than any recent run of any model.

Yeah, but the 0z GFS was so different than any other run today. 

Guess it comes down to the Euro, yet again.

Wow! All this uncertainty reminds me of the pre-internet/model days.

No matter how good our computer models get, the atmosphere is so complex, there will always be uncertainties.

Down to 37 here... probably going to bottom out soon.   Guessing it will stay around 35 most of the night with lumpy rain eventually.

It would seem like you have a decent chance of accumulation, if you get good precip intensity later.

Deep in la-la land looks like it's setting up for weather model porn. 

Hope is renewed.

Retrogression happens at day 10...doesn't look like a particularly spectacular result, but who cares, we're talking lala land.

Some very cold air makes it into the U.S. on this run. Sub -30C in ND 7 days out.

To put things in perspective I compared 4AM Monday on the 12z and 00z for Seattle.

 

850mb temps: +3 on 12z, -9 on 00z.

500mb heights: ~573 on 12z, 552 on 00z.

100-500mb thickness: ~550 on 12z, ~520 on 00z.

 

That is a ridiculous difference for just 5 days out.

No kidding. Not very often you see such large scale differences within 5 days.

Continued very different at hour 168...much weaker low pressure by the Aleutians, further west as well. Better potential again for later.

Nice... appreciate you posting images... It take a load off, and since I'm so busy in my weather group. Feel free to continue

Sure. I would continue, but basically through hour 126 the 0z is showing what the models were showing last night...close to something nice, but not a true Arctic intrusion. If anything different pops up, I'll post it.

Legit arctic air gets close again this run. Hour 114.

Way better at 96. These crazy models.

MM5-NAM shows a pretty large area of sub 925mb temperatures tonight. I agree that it could get a little interesting for hills East of the Sound, but it's hard to imagine anything more than 34 degree slop below about 500 feet.

 

Get heavy enough precip at 34 degrees at night and you can still get some decent accumulation.

Can anyone think of a similar situation that delivered lowland snow? This one seems pretty odd.

I like the guy that writes these, one day he and his coworkers will post here.

 

I'm sure this isn't "jaya", so people can stop harassing him.

Really? Seems odd that another local met would choose that moniker.

I wouldn't mind bifurcating Megan Fox...

I actually dated a girl named Meghan Fox once. It was ok.

December 2008 was exceptionally well-handled 7-8 days out. Even at 11-12 days the signal was pretty strong. True pattern crashers, as that was, tend to get picked up on pretty early.

This.

I remember the models did falter some, but not much within 10 days. The event did get pushed back some from when it first started showing up, though.

Strat forecasts are not like surface/tropospheric forecasts..much higher verification rate. The ECMWF ensembles are gung-ho on a split as well.

Sweet.

DOES that mean epic cold for us?

Hour 348 of the GFS. FWIW.