Front Ranger

Indeed.

Sarasota gusting over 60 mph now. Should go up rapidly from here.

Significant factor that is no longer in play.

All those poor idiots who fled Tampa in fear. When will they learn.

Yeah, but it was still too far north yesterday compared to GFS.

Was there really all that much chaos and unrest prior to covid?

Gotta hand it to the GFS. It's been on top of the trends with Milton ahead of most the other models, including the hurricane specific ones.

April, no less. Not historically a windstormy month.

ANALular logs?

The reality is that: 1) Most of the time, storms don't live up to the hype for most people. You're playing the odds if you doubt. 2) That being said, it's high risk if you lose even with the odds overwhelmingly in your favor. Are people morons for betting against personal catastrophe with these odds? It's a personal question...but everyone's risk tolerance is different.

Early bird gets the worm in hand before it turns?

GFS wants to take Milton just south of Tampa, while most the hurricane models seem to want to take it just north or right over. Pretty good agreement overall.

Almost all in the barrier islands, not Tampa itself. I have a friend in Tampa, she said it was mostly a non event in most of the city.

And it was mostly a non event there. So you can kinda understand whatever complacency is happening.

I can't believe I was just in Florida for the week in between said storms. We certainly lucked out that the trip wasn't planned for a few days later...

I don't think Sick Phil would make it.

Many people in New Orleans thought they were safe because of the levees.

All hurricane models show this is about the lowest it gets.

Perhaps, but I highly doubt we'd see the loss of life seen with Katrina. Pretty unique set of circumstances there.

Right, but there isn't large percentage of the city below sea level like there is with New Orleans. The danger of levies breaking and inundating huge portions of the city like happened with Katrina is not there.

Fortunately, Tampa is not nearly as vulnerable as huge sections of New Orleans were with that storm. But still looks to be a very damaging storm, could easily set a record for billions lost.

No doubt. Though I believe Katrina still made landfall as a strong Cat 3 or even a 4?

I wouldn't say that. Last strong Nina was 2010-11. Lots of blocking with that one. Before that you had 2007-08, which didn't have great blocking but had a ton of snow anywhere above 1000' in the PNW. 2020-2021 was upper end moderate and had its moments, certainly not a terrible winter most places.

Decent chance it's peaking too soon to inflict maximum damage in FL. We should know by this evening.

Looks like a jam band crowd.