Front Ranger

Paper airplanes don't count as snow.

That's a reconnaissance plane he sent out to sample the upper atmosphere.

Stuck at HR 183 on my site

That's past the point of no return anyway.

The 18z teases again at hour 228. 

The model discussions and puppy pictures are awesome. The bickering between two guys who don't even live in the PacNW arguing over the finer details in life, not exactly awesome. Keep it to a PM or a separate thread.

Aw, don't play that card. My heart will always be there.

Block setup is totally wrong and needs to move west. Seems like EVERYTIME we get significant ridging it is always to close. Ugh!

If we could just get rid of that warm blob of SSTAs offshore...

Kidding, kidding!

18Z GFS for next Monday... almost to 576DM heights!

 

 

And it goes higher.

In my opinion, the main thing we need to be keeping our eyes on is that stubborn Aleutian low. This time of year, with longer wave lengths, it's very difficult for you guys to score with that thing in place. If it weakens dramatically or retrogrades, that will be a great sign.

Even the most generous model runs haven't shown enough amplification this week for the 510 thickness line to be crashing west of the divide. Just a bit too progressive and too much working against us at the moment for a big event. Interest should be focused further down the road as the upper level pattern organizes a bit. 

Well yeah, obviously. But there was a strong signal for a -EPO block, and models never gave a unified signal until today about where exactly it would end up or how progressive the pattern would be. They never looked great, but they don't have to at 7-10 days out for something good to still happen. That -EPO block is the biggest player right there.

Of course, I agree that focus should now be shifted down the road in hopes that some sort of retrogression can occur.

Ridge looks like it may amplify better on the 18z for the weekend.

It does amplify nicely, unfortunately there is no tilt back towards the PNW and it's way too close to the coast.

This weekend was absolutely not ever going to be a big event. Key upper level players just aren't in place yet. Our best chance in sight is and has been with retrogression in early January after the ridge builds over us at New Year's.

 

It is unfortunate that the next week looks particularly mundane right now, but it was never going to be more than a glancing blow to the east. We're talking days in the upper 30s versus days in the mid 40s.

Easy to say in hindsight, though. The ridge (the main upper level player) would have simply had to build stronger and a bit further away from the coast, and it could have easily been a significant event. We've seen it happen that fast before.

I appreciate your forecast and respect them. No one is perfect and the standard he is holding you too is kinda ridiculous! He did praise you with an underhanded jab which is a total double edge sword. I know you can and may be wrong (I have seen it) but I appreciate you either way. I will not hold you to an unreasonable standard as some, but I will always be skeptical and hoping you right. Thank you for all you do on here... Stay Thirsty (for snow and cold) and humble my friend. 

So if I point out one thing he said that was inaccurate it's ridiculous, but if I give him praise it's an underhanded jab?

C'mon. Just because he overreacted doesn't mean you have to as well.

I handle criticism fine, when warranted (December 2012, etc). I really hate unwarranted/manufactured criticism..it's just rude. I put a lot of effort into my forecasts, so it irks me to see this sort of crap still ongoing. I thought you'd have matured by now.

 

I respect you, personally. But I don't respect the games you play. Just being honest here.

Fine. You never gave a window of late Dec - mid Jan. It was always just early Jan. It was completely accurate for you to say "late Dec was never on the table". I should have never said anything, even that you have done really well overall.

You were right, I was wrong, moving on.

You turned my "statement" into something it wasn't. That type of extensive interpolation isn't necessary or helpful.

 

Also, your claim that I missed one of the November blasts is false. Where'd you get that idea?

(that's all I can do at this point)

I thought you had gotten better at handling criticism, even if it's just pointing out something small and simple, but this clearly is going nowhere. So how about you just get back to analyzing SSW potential and we'll call it good. I respect you and your knowledge, Phil. I'll leave it at that.

2005? You sure you're not thinking of 2003?

 

Christmas 2005 was very mild with a modest south windstorm and near record highs in the valleys.

 

I do remember low elevation snow in spots in 2003 though. That was the day our nice pattern got going and there was a rain/snow mix in some low spots. 

Huh, yeah I guess it must have been 2003. Come to think of it, I think my parents moved to Salem in 2005 so that wouldn't have made sense anyway.

Yeah I wasn't confident on that but went for it anyway.

It happens. Though at times like these, confidence is what we need.

On the bright side with the 12z model suite, BLI's 2nd warmest December on record is very much still on the table.

Don't underestimate fake cold!

Get him!!! Take his mother out to a nice steak dinner then never call her back!

Seafood dinner. Never, ever misquote Anchorman.

His seasonal stuff this winter has been exceptional. Last night's 2008 comment was old school sensationalism and probably set him up to have his early season performance erased from memory though.

Yes, he has been good (though he missed on the one November Arctic intrusion for you guys). He's nailed the overall pattern quite well, which is all that can be expected of LR forecasting, and deserves props for that.

But it still wasn't accurate for him to say "late Dec was never on the table". 

Semantics, you know what I meant. This kind of crap is pointless to discuss.

Just pointing it out for the sake of accuracy. Carry on. 

Like I said, I'm rooting for early January to be epic just like everyone else.

Might as well be. This thread is lol.

People are reacting as you'd expect them to react when the models settle on an unwanted outcome in the believable range. I doubt many are actually throwing in the towel on the whole winter. If so...well, weenies will be weenies, as my grandmother always said.

He's really mellowed in his old age.

I'm so old.

Do you see me and snowman going back and forth in heated debates on historical cold/heat waves? Those days are gone (both the historical ones and the ones where we'd argue for days on end).

Uh, yeah, in the winter forecast I wrote in mid-October. I narrowed the window of highest potential down to January 1-10 almost a month ago.

Right, so it wasn't accurate to say "late Dec was never on the table". In fact, earlier this month you clarified that you hadn't ruled it out. And why would you, if Jan 1 was the start of the period of highest potential? 

It's not like Mother Nature is on a calendar like we are

The modeling is really struggling with the breaker/stacking in the N/NW-PAC..no need to get worked up over stuff like this. The (forecasted) raging +NAO isn't helping either, but I'm skeptical of any extended vortex there.

 

Late December was never on the table to begin with..

Hold on, you gave a window of late Dec - mid Jan. I know you've said early Jan was your main focus, but you did leave the door open for late Dec.

With such disagreement in a mere span of 10-12 hours, you would have to agree that things may turn around tonight perhaps?

 

Just trying to stay optimistic  <_>

Anything is possible, but I'd put odds of another full reversal to something good before Dec 31 at maybe 2%. I've just seen this too many times...models all over the places like they've been the past few days, then suddenly they all lock onto something and there you have it. 

I'm sure we'll probably get runs over the next couple days that show something good in the long range, but I think the pattern through the end of the year is set now.

Got a surprise 1" of snow here yesterday. Looks like tomorrow will warm up enough to melt it, but now also looks like a decent snowfall Christmas night is possible, with perhaps 2-4".

Just goes to show that as you get within 4-5 days, the models often suddenly lock onto a solution and all the issues they were having in terms of agreement go away, and sometimes it's quite a bit different than what they were showing before. In some case the sudden trend as you get close is good (the November event), sometimes it's bad (today).

On to January.